OK, here we go
This is to give you a reality check. Do not live on cloud 9. I was there. Now I stopped going there.
Out of these 300,000 cases, how many do you expect to be EB3? I would say about 90% + cases.
Current Visa bulletin:
EB 2nd 01APR04
EB 3rd 22APR01
So for the PD to reach March 2005 for EB3 will take a long time.
Can you prove that the dates will move to March 2005 within a few months for EB3?
It is as much tough to prove it right as it is to deny. Because, we can only refer to inputs from DOS/USCIS/Attorney websites/Forums etc. If you trust them, here is my logic:
(For further details on my numbers refer:
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=14668)
There were 320K 485 filings in June-Aug 2007. Possible breakup
number of PERM approvals from 03/28/2005 - 10/1/2006 = 83,151
assuming 60% of those are for EB2 and EB3 (EB3 other workers are also included in the total 83151 count) = 49,890 ~ 50,000
50,000 = 39% of 128,000 unique labor certifications/primary applicants
(courtesy: above link)
There is no way EB3 could be 90% of all filings! May be your wish!!
My Logic is simple:
# The main reason for this retrogression was Labor Certification delay, reason why most 2003/2004 cases could not move as their LC got stuck in BEC.
# Most 2001 cases and 2002 are cleared from USCIS and whatever pending are pending due to name check and other reasons and not due to VISA numbers (there were several PD 2003 and 2004 (EB3 India) cases approved in the last 30 days for which numbers were reserved during July 2007).
# EB2 is in 2004 and that shows the retrogressed cases before 2003 and 2002 (in EB2)
# There are virtually no EB3 cases with PD 2002 or 2001 pending in Consulates (definitely not 2001) as there are no interview scheduled in the last two months for EB3 cases (refer Consulate apoointments).
# Remember some EB3 2005/EB2 2006 cases got their interview scheduled in July 2007 (for CP) - reason that's all the cases they have in most Consulates.
# Now that labor backlog cleared, I140 cleared for some (this is very important - not all pending I485 have their I140 cleared and Premium Processing is stopped and it may take 2-14 months for I140 nowadays - remove these applications from competing cases for VISA numbers) using PP - USCIS can start approving cases now.
# A good example is Nov bulletin where they said EB3 did not move because they have not consolidated information after July filings and NOT THAT VISA numbers are unavailable.
# with so much going about immigration (DREAM and lots of push for legal immigrants (EB) and various bills, amendment bills etc) the least DOS would do is to make sure atleast they are using most of 140,000 numbers available every year.
# how will they use 130,000 in 9 months (if they have used 10,000 in 3 months since Oct 2007)? By moving PD forward (if not current for ALL like July 2007) atleast to 2005/2006 for all categories - again atleast for 2 months towards end of FY 2008 which is July/Agugust/Sep 2008. This is when I hope all cases in Consulate (including mine) will get cleared.
#Besides, we are so close in recapturing unused VISA numbers (but my analysis is NOT based on these numbers) for EB immigrants. They have almost recaptured 60K numbers for EB3 Schedule A. And if this happens (for EB), then situation will be back to 2002-2004 where PD was current for all categories.
# Please understand that they make PD current NOT TO CLEAR ALL CASES IN QUEUE BUT TO CLEAR ALL
POSSIBLE CASES. When that happens CP cases have the highest possibility than 485.
Tell me where I am in cloud 9 on this analysis! Just because 2001-2003 guys have been waiting for so long, it does not mean it will be the same for everyone and forever. Things will change and changing.
Thanks!