Do I have a case or my lawyer is lying ?

I contacted to lawyers. One is for profit and the other isnt. The commercial lawyer says that I have a case, while the non profit says its only 20% chance. My story is that I'm a political opponent of a dictator and was visited by two of "his" people was physical assaulted and threaten. This is after an ongoing threats I received via social media after I launched my website which has some articles against the government. My social media account + website(has dates on when the articles were posted) + medical report states that I suffer from Trauma because of the incident. The thing is I dont have an evidence of the incident since I cant just ask the government for a report. My physical injuries(thank god) have healed since its been a few months. So I'm not sure if I have a strong case or not.