Discussion and Analysis on TSC's I485 processing

V

vili

Registered Users (C)
On the threads Order Patterns at TSC and Data Consolidation
Projects, a group of volunteers has discussed and collected data
about the status of I-485 cases at TSC. Currently, we have collected around 7000 cases. Those data is large enough for a lot of questions and need to me expanded to answer the others.

This thread is for discussion about the utilization of this pool of data. I had some preliminary discussions on the above threads.
Here, I would like to have feedback from all of us to continue the work effectively with the goal to understand the processing mechanism at TSC. The task is of course complicated. But any information extracted from the objective data can help to avoid unnecessary persimistic assumptions, which are natural.

For today I have two news from my analysis: one bad and one good:

The bad news is : although the overall statistics is more favorable for SRC01 ( average 37% approvals) as compared to SRC02 ( average 25%), the current processing rate is not more favorable. That's to say due to complicated structure of queueing, work load distribution, assigment and different requirements for background checks at TSC the cases become quite equal after a certain amount of time. With the current touching rate ( the rate
TSC touches any I-485 files) about 1% in one week, most of cases will be approved in about next 6-10 months.

The good news is: there is a wave of FP's in March-May 2003, after TSC woke up from the Winter Sleep. Perhaps as the result of it, there is an obvious peak of approvals by the end of June and in July. The pattern might be similar to the one in 2002, when after a wave of FPs in February-April, there was a peak of approval in June-August. If this is correct, I hope August and September will be better months at TSC.
 
Thank you Vili,

Thank you for all your efforts and I hope you are correct. I wish I could do more but my computer literacy is pretty bad.

I 485 ND-11/19/2001
FP completed-3/25/2003
On 2ND EAD and filing for 3rd in 9/2003.
 
rA

the computer skill is not required for this. i am not a software person it is pretty easy to use if you give it a shot. more the skill it is the time that is required which is important
 
Total number of I-485 cases

Does anyboday have any idea about the total number of SRC01 and SRC02. A rough estimation would also be OK. To have a good picture about TSC, I think we should have at least 10% of the cases.
 
Yearly Statistics for SRC01 and SRC02

In the Data Consolidation Projects we have collected more than 6500 Employment based I-485 cases.

I have put all the data into two separate sheets for SRC01 and SRC02. The processing rate is approximately the same for both sheets. This fact supports the assumption that, a file has the same chance to be processed no matter it belong to SRC01 or SRC02. I will go to the deeper analysis to prove it later.

I have run the updates on all 6500 cases and see that the touched files have more chance to be touched again. That support
my assumption that the FP notices are triggered by two ways: 1) by the contractor or 2) by BCIS officer. I also observed that the notices triggered by BCIS have more chance to be processed further.

The statistics up to August 2, 2003 is as follows:

SRC02

Approved/Completed Count 755 (22%)
FP sent Count 258 (7%)
Misc Count 86 (2%)
Received Count 1466 (42%)
Denied/Withdrawn Count 1 (~0%)
Resumed/FP recvd Count 646 (19%)
RFE recvd Count 39 (1%)
RFE sent Count 23 (1%)
Transferred Count 211 (6%)
Grand Count 3485

SRC01


Approved/Completed Count 1213 (39%)
Denied/Withdrawn Count 12 (<1%)
FP sent Count 67 (2%)
Misc Count 141 (4%)
Received Count 726 (23%)
Resumed/FP recvd Count 691 (22%)
RFE recvd Count 35 ( 1%)
RFE sent Count 20 ( 1%)
Transferred Count 237 ( 8%)
Grand Count 3142
 
Hi Vili,
Kudos on a job well done. Have you accumulated the 01 and 02 cases into 2 different groups? We can then subgroup within 01 and 02 and see what is happening periodically.
Once again thanks for all your efforts.
 
Vzexemp

I am currently a little bit busy. However, my plan is as follows:

I want to have the yearly statistics first and will try to discover few patterns.

After that, I will divide further into monthly statistics. If some irregularities will be there, then I will collect more data in certain months. If the irregularities are still there, we definitely need explanations. By that way, we probe into TSC.
 
Comments on RFE

There are few issues we cannot give answer from the collected data. For instance, the question like "When will I be approved?".
However, there are few questions we can answer with certain assumptions without going to too detailed analysis.

One of it is RFE. Up to now, the RFE rates are consistently 1% ( for sent) and 1% ( for received). Even on monthly or daily sheets, the rates are almost the same. Therefore, we can assume that this rate is a constant global character. What does that mean? Assuming that the data pool is large and random enough, the constantness of RFE rate can be explained if there is an instruction to generate RFE at this rate.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top