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disappointed

T

tato

Registered Users (C)
Now I see that CN AS***9XXX is very high according to the visa bulletin>>>>I am disappointed >>Will I have a chance to be interviewed???!?!?!?!?!!!!!!!!!!
 
Your # is consider low for Asia in DV14 and I am sure you will get your interview. It is just a matter of time. We have a lot more that have 10k and above. But I will think under 18k it is safe.
 
I hope that kayend ....thank you for your encourage :)


kayend said:
Your # is consider low for Asia in DV14 and I am sure you will get your interview. It is just a matter of time. We have a lot more that have 10k and above. But I will think under 18k it is safe.
Click to expand...
 
I admit i had same disappointment (cn As00011***when i saw the numbers for december.., but i think we should be positive, patient and never give up our dream and godwellings we are going to make it in the perfect time for each of us...
 
I have similar Numbers! but 9*** has nothing to worry at all, in fact slow moving number for me is better so that I can get more time to prepare myself.

HJKARKI
AS20149*** :)
 
luck_boy said:
ya actually I have similar view in this regard will u plz try to expalin this???????????????
Click to expand...


OK, a longer more detailed answer.

In several recent years, there were around 100 - 105,000 selectees each year and the number of drop outs would mean there were enough visas for all - so the assumption was that all people got an interview. People became used to seeing the numbers going current in the last month or two months of processing. Generally the region going current was accepted to mean that USCIS believed there were enough remaining visas and processing capacity to process all the remaining numbers, so no longer needed to impose a cutoff limit to control the order of processing. Post year numbers showed that the visas were not exhausted each year - they were slightly underfilling the target meaning some visas were being wasted.

However, this year is different. In our selectee letters we were told that 125,000 selectees had been notified and then in the September visa bulletin we learned that there were just over 140,000 selectees this year. The VB also stated that the larger number
selectees was to ensure that the visa quota would be filled this year. I guess there had been some criticism of the wasted visas. How do you ensure you will use them up ? You select MORE than you know you will need.

So - some selectees will be disappointed - that is certain - what we don't know is where the axe will fall (the global 50k limit) and how the region to region quotas will be spread out. When you have an underfilling situation, the regional quota is not what determines the spread of visas - it is based on "chance" within the selectees. So, when they were only selecting 105k they were not able to pick and choose the regional spread. Since unused visas from one region could be used by another region, chances are that we were not seeing the quotas implemented with their full effect. At 140K they will be able to determine the regional spread and the regional quota could mean that a region hits a limit and never goes current whilst another region continues to be expanded until it too is filled or the global limit is met. That is a possibility. I suspect that is what will happen for EU and OC this year. I think they will accelerate the processing in those regions relative to other regions so that regional quota are met in those regions. I don't know what that will mean in terms of numbers but I would not be surprised to see EU get around 20k visas this year...

It is all speculation at this point but I do believe this year will be different than previous years...
 
Here are some examples of earlier years where regions were cut off at fiscal year end, but bear in mind that country eligibility has changed (eg Bangladesh was eligible in these years) - not sure if or how that would affect overall numbers.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_2984.html

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1466.html

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_2616.html

The numbers seem low compared to many this year - I do not want anyone to panic from this!!! It's just an example...
 
thanks alot bristimon I was also assuming same thing i request you to put some light on asia case for tjis year..
britsimon said:
OK, a longer more detailed answer.

In several recent years, there were around 100 - 105,000 selectees each year and the number of drop outs would mean there were enough visas for all - so the assumption was that all people got an interview. People became used to seeing the numbers going current in the last month or two months of processing. Generally the region going current was accepted to mean that USCIS believed there were enough remaining visas and processing capacity to process all the remaining numbers, so no longer needed to impose a cutoff limit to control the order of processing. Post year numbers showed that the visas were not exhausted each year - they were slightly underfilling the target meaning some visas were being wasted.

However, this year is different. In our selectee letters we were told that 125,000 selectees had been notified and then in the September visa bulletin we learned that there were just over 140,000 selectees this year. The VB also stated that the larger number
selectees was to ensure that the visa quota would be filled this year. I guess there had been some criticism of the wasted visas. How do you ensure you will use them up ? You select MORE than you know you will need.

So - some selectees will be disappointed - that is certain - what we don't know is where the axe will fall (the global 50k limit) and how the region to region quotas will be spread out. When you have an underfilling situation, the regional quota is not what determines the spread of visas - it is based on "chance" within the selectees. So, when they were only selecting 105k they were not able to pick and choose the regional spread. Since unused visas from one region could be used by another region, chances are that we were not seeing the quotas implemented with their full effect. At 140K they will be able to determine the regional spread and the regional quota could mean that a region hits a limit and never goes current whilst another region continues to be expanded until it too is filled or the global limit is met. That is a possibility. I suspect that is what will happen for EU and OC this year. I think they will accelerate the processing in those regions relative to other regions so that regional quota are met in those regions. I don't know what that will mean in terms of numbers but I would not be surprised to see EU get around 20k visas this year...

It is all speculation at this point but I do believe this year will be different than previous years...
Click to expand...
 
luck_boy said:
thanks alot bristimon I was also assuming same thing i request you to put some light on asia case for tjis year..
Click to expand...


I'm not sure of Asia. I think it is likely that they will push the "easier" regions first Asia and Africa have countries in them that create more problems in processing (fraud levels, AP cases, terrorist checks and so on). Just my thoughts - could well be wrong...
 
It seem that DV2014 is like DV2013 untill now ..would it change in the coming months?? .I hope
 
britsimon said:
That is a useful link thanks! Whenever people ask to estimate when their case will become current, one metric is what happened in previous years, so to have that all right there is very useful...
Click to expand...

What is missing from that link to put it in context though would be the number of winners drawn every year...
 
So, the below is what I found re number of winners per year... Even going back, this year has by far the largest number of applicants drawn.

Dv2002 90k
Dv2003 87k
Dv2004 111k
Dv2005 100k
Dv2006 90k
Dv2007 82k
Dv2008 96k
Dv2009 99.6k
Dv2010 102.8k
 
I think when there is a large number of winners the CN should go faster ..what happen ???!!!
 
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