Conspirancy theory of July 07 VB

[khodalmd]

I posted my doubt on June 30, 2007, when we heard the possible reversal of July VB.

Today www.immigration-law.com reported as follow:

I am sure there is big scandal behind this July VB episode. One unconfirmed news is that they are returning visa to DOS (I hope this is the visa which was pre-alloted to July cases whose security checks are not cleared). If they returned all the July Visa back, we will be in trouble. Big mess.


07/12/2007: USCIS Reportedly Returning Visa Numbers to DOS

* AILA has reported that when Rep. Lofgren issued a letter to Secretary Chertoff, she also disclosed that "It has also come to my attention that USCIS began returning visa numbers to the State Depaartment as early as Thrusday, July 5, 2007." It could be the answer to our question why they are holding July filing cases and why they stopped adjudicating 485 cases for which they pull out the numbers before July 2, 2007. What a mess!

07/12/2007: Truth to Rumor of Resrictionist Senators Having Influenced USCIS Decision of July 2007 EB New Filing

* There is an unconfirmed source of information that a couple of restrictionist U.S. Senators influenced the USCIS decision to reject July applications for their alleged fear that since July 2007 Visa Bulletin would open a flood gate of hundreds of thousands of 485 applications, the public might take it as the government giving out a sort of "amnesty" to these floods of people. We hope that there is no truth to such rumor. However, if it is true, it is indeed shocking that individual legislators could interfere with the government process on "personal" basis and without the formal legislative process of public notice and participation. We urge the U.S. Senate to get to the bottom of this rumor and take appropriate action for correction under the Senate rules.



http://www.immigrationportal.com/showpost.php?p=1714753&postcount=4

This is all politics !! The conspiracy theory is:

Democrats wanted to pass CIR with amnesty to 12 millions illegals and President is involved in it. Secretory Commerce and Secretory Homeland Security was actively involved in the negotiation. In the war of negotiations, EB category was became victim. Later all realized this injustice to EB category but they can't do anything to recover it as it could break delicate deal. President and Democrats want CIR with amnesty at any cost! Now in order to focus the attention of EB community they purposefully current all categories (actually we all know all categories should not be current all of sudden) so that they don't have any stiff resistance from EB community for CIR. We noticed that after July VB, everyone (including me) was dreaming to file I 485 and getting GC not care about CIR. In May 2007 CIR discussion, I called more than 50 calls and hundreds of fax/emails but in last week, I was inactive due to July VB! I think politicians play trick to shut mouth of EB community for time being.

Now, CIR is dead. They don't care; whether EB community cry or die. They want now realistic VB back as CIR is already dead.

Unless, we do something extraordinary, nothing going to be changed. Million dollar question is I don't know what is extraordinary?

 

[StillAlive]

You are amazing, how did you know the truth so fast

 

[khodalmd]

Stillalive,

Another example:
I predicted following on April 26, 2007 when CIR discussion was on peak and every one was very hopeful about it. Some people were not agree with my prediction.

http://www.immigrationportal.com/showpost.php?p=1658520&postcount=3

My prediction:

CIR/STRIVE will not pass this year. Lawmakers will never have common ground on amnesty issue. At the end, they will attach small piecemeal (similar like S 1932 of 2005) for legals with any appropriation bill.

Wait up to end of this year as pro-CIR lawmakers will not release hostages (legal provision) until CIR fails.

I don't know, if you aware about my stand on single point agenda of I 485 filing without priority dates. I opposed it as it was a simple loosing a turn and turn comes after 5 to 6 years. Every one was on opinion that lets push I 485 now (January 07) and we will have CIR and everything will be ok for every one. I was aware that CIR has no future and I 485 filing will loose our turn for next 5 years. I have (and will always have) good sympathy for people waiting for I 485. Today, I am strong supporter of flower campaign. Immediately, I sent flower even though I filed I 485 in Sept 2005.

Stillalive, I have prediction for you.

You will get your Green Card approve before July 20 !!! cool enjoy

You are amazing, how did you know the truth so fast

 

[EB2INDPD2005]

wow!
Amazing... Brilliant.. AbsAlootely birrilliant!
Your book can be titled ...
Khoda (CIR) pahad nikala chihuahua!


jushht timepassing.. take no offensh pleesz!

 

[StillAlive]

Man you made my day I will send you flowers If I get GC before July 20.
Catch here is you didn't mention the year

Between my friend prediction about approving before July 10 was proven wrong.

Stillalive,
You will get your Green Card approve before July 20 !!! cool enjoy

 

[khodalmd]

On June 12, when they released July VB with all current, they aware about fees increase is coming from July 30, 2007. If the purpose was only to have more fees, why they made all current in July VB. In this case, they would have wait for one more month to make all current in August VB with double fee revenue.

I'm a firm believer in Occam's Razor, there is no conspiracy theory here. The only reason why this happened is because they don't want to let anyone file in July and open the doors again in August after the increased fees take effect (almost 3x more!). Just do the math on that.

Just like anything else here in America, follow the money and you will get the truth.

 

[Jackolantern]

On June 12, when they released July VB with all current, they aware about fees increase is coming from July 30, 2007. If the purpose was only to have more fees, why they made all current in July VB. In this case, they would have wait for one more month to make all current in August VB with double fee revenue.

Different agencies. DOS sets the cutoff dates, but USCIS gets the fees and does the processing. USCIS did not like the effect that "all current" would have on their workload and revenue, so they manipulated the DOS into making it "all unavailable" by using up (or pretending to use up) the entire rest of the quota in June.

 

[perm_lc]

I do not think "money" or "fee" increase politics behind this mess. If their aim is really money, getting 700K 485s in July is much more profitable than getting them in Aug after fee hike.

New fee is $1000, with unlimited EAD & AP. But old fee in 350. However, every year EAD & AP renewal yield huge money from 700K applicants. Remember, when 700K applicants renew EAD & AP next year, they have to pay new EAD & AP fee which is about $350 each. If you do break even analysis, They will get more than $1000 after 1.5years.

My estimation is average wait time for 700K new applicants will be 3 to 5years. Few may need to wait up to 10 years (EB3 India, with PD in 2007). Now it is up to you to calculate how much money they collect thro old fee.

My theory behind this mess, is very simple. It is just a careless, and poor customer service, lack of transperency, failure of understaning between DOS and CIS, and complex law and procedure, constrains in procedures to implement the law particularly DOS definition of "current", criticizim by ombudsman in 485 backloggs, . Thats all.

 

[zeroerrors]

I do not think "money" or "fee" increase politics behind this mess. If their aim is really money, getting 700K 485s in July is much more profitable than getting them in Aug after fee hike.

letting 700K file in July is actually LESS PROFITABLE than letting that 700K to file in August.

Here's what I think really happened:

1. Around May, DOS saw that they still have 60,000++ visa numbers and decided that it doesn't want to get blamed again for all the visa numbers that's going to be wasted at the end of the year. It decides to move the June VB a significant amount

2. But the thing is, USCIS is stalling and holding back on the approvals because it wants to take advantage of the recently approved (this is around June) fee increases. Less approvals equals less movement of VB. Less movement in the July VB means more people will file later on with the new fees.

3. DOS sees that the USCIS being greedy at their expense of them being blamed for the wastage, opens the floodgates in the July VB.

4. USCIS' plans got foiled, they went in a mad rush to "approve" and pre-allocate (whatever that means) visa numbers to force DOS to close the doors.

5. DOS issues July 2 VB and plays by USCIS' game of greed. Even if EVERYBODY knows that it is logistically impossible for them to approve 60,000 485s in that short amount of time. Some even speculate that they bypassed several security protocols just to approve or pre-approve 485s.

Now, the ball is in USCIS' court. 2 Things can happen.

a. They indeed use up all the visa numbers to justify 'Unavailable' status till the end of the fiscal year.

b. They realize they bit more than they can chew and starts returning Visa numbers to DOS. (more likely to happen and is already happening)

Now this is where it gets interesting, as a thorn on USCIS' side is AILF's potential lawsuit. Whether the lawsuit has merit or not, it will do one thing:
Open Investigations. Remember, all court proceedings, evidence and transcripts are a matter of public record and a lot of people will be watching this lawsuit 24x7. Whether the AILF wins or not, it will expose USCIS' plot and perhaps a lot more other skeletons in its closet.

Bottomline, USCIS will do everything at all cost to avoid this lawsuit, do something to please everyone, even to the point of honoring July2 submitters with the lower fees.

 

[Imm_Exploited]

It is hard to believe that USCIS & DOS are not hand in glove. I will buy the increased fee theory because Americans are very good playing drama in a very impeccable manner.

They are aware that the legal immigrants are cash cows and they will do everything to make money from. They may even make money from the legal immigrants to get that wall constructed by the illegal workers where most of the money goes to the American contractors.

How can we forget the drama they are creating every summer in the congress on immigration?

So, knowing the legal immigrants are educated, they play a different dram this time.

1. Increase the fee effective July 30, 2007.

2. Make all EB current in June 2007 VB just to show that they are NOT greedy and mean.

3. Delay the labor approvals and discontinue premium processing of I-140 applications.

4. Even though they announce that Labor Sub will be discontinued, they will accept those cases till the end of Monday - July 16, 2007.

5. Then the master stroke: On July 2, 2007 they make all EB unavailable so that they can collect the new fee.

I wonder how many would have applied for EAD and AP along with I-485 in July. Whatever said and done, the US immigration is one hell of a 'protectionist' agenda.