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CEAC DATA UP TO 07-03-2014

vladek15425 said:
First of all embassies capacity, looks like its keeping the same rhythm plus minus, so everything will rely on density for the last chapter.

As I said ,
EU seems to have about 650 cases running for august, with 3800 cut-off that shows clearly that density is low above 35k EU CN range.
I believe by now that EU quota is definitely increased up to 18.5k, even if we can extrapolate about 1500 hidden AOS cases, so I maintain my guess for EU final cut-off at 44k~45k...

AF IMO will definitely get a considerable jump at last, I believe the quota will be around 22.5k because of EU take up. That gives us a final cut-of around 95k, with egypt at around 37k. But because the failure rate in AF has always been high in AF I think KFC will bargain on it, and as well as the ''complicated'' APs. So let's hope for a better cut-off.

AS will drop in its quota at around 8500, because the density is lower just because nepal was put in special cut-off, and the embassies capacity won't allow AS to reach to the 2013 quota 9.5k, final AS cut-off will be at around 18k with lower density and lots of iranians cleared APs will get issued. And nepal will still move up to 10k.

SA also an obvious increase with Guatemala back in DV, the quota will 1100, and final cut-off at 1900.

Oc will stay with the average quota (600) and cut-off will end up at around 1700.

None of my this predictions includes Nacara huge impact that I was expecting, so hopefully if it kicks in, we will see a better result for high CNs.

As you've noticed I'm sticking to my latest predictions with a some slight re adjustments, and I wish I will be positively proven wrong very soon on the last VB.

Best of luck to all my family forum.
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hi Valdi, i wish what you say about the cut-off in Egypt is correct, i have read from sloner that the visas might be exhausted in Egypt and hope that this is incorrect , few days to find out bout that
 
rafikbo76 said:
Hi,

Here is the link of the updated data :
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gXQxNj7q7uYuFS9wtxyDM5wCvlUbiUkmzC5W1JG5Phg/edit?pli=1#gid=1133734000
Click to expand...

Rafikbo76: Did you notice that there are some additional CN in this file compared to CEAC data gathered on 06.03.2014? I am talking about low CNs (not the ones added in this month because of the new cut-off). For example please take a look at the following very low CNs: EU316, EU380, EU627, EU670, EU691 etc. All those numbers were missing in the previous CEAN data from 06.03.2014.

What is the reason for this strange pop-up of "old" CNs?
 
szym said:
Rafikbo76: Did you notice that there are some additional CN in this file compared to CEAC data gathered on 06.03.2014? I am talking about low CNs (not the ones added in this month because of the new cut-off). For example please take a look at the following very low CNs: EU316, EU380, EU627, EU670, EU691 etc. All those numbers were missing in the previous CEAN data from 06.03.2014.

What is the reason for this strange pop-up of "old" CNs?
Click to expand...

People submitting their forms late....
 
i have 1 question when my firend filling his CN in CEAC on site its say Your search did not return any data. what we must do we are filling like this 2014EU379XX
 
faustika said:
i have 1 question when my firend filling his CN in CEAC on site its say Your search did not return any data. what we must do we are filling like this 2014EU379XX
Click to expand...

Assuming he is current and submitted his forms for CP (not aos) he should see his case. The format you are using is correct. Has he received his 2NL?
 
@Sloner
Since havana doesnt have diplomatic relations with washinton, the DATA wont show cubans cases ! So my guess is the cubans are like iranians they will be transfered in other embassies, and since i see Caracas is loaded, than most of them are surely scheduled there, and the other big part are doing AOS or claiming Nacara visas !
 
vladek15425 said:
@Sloner
Since havana doesnt have diplomatic relations with washinton, the DATA wont show cubans cases ! So my guess is the cubans are like iranians they will be transfered in other embassies, and since i see Caracas is loaded, than most of them are surely scheduled there, and the other big part are doing AOS or claiming Nacara visas !
Click to expand...
Cuba IS in the data. The data shows 420 people processed at Havana with 224 issued. So don't worry, Cuba is already in the data.
 
vladek15425 said:
@Sloner
Since havana doesnt have diplomatic relations with washinton, the DATA wont show cubans cases ! So my guess is the cubans are like iranians they will be transfered in other embassies, and since i see Caracas is loaded, than most of them are surely scheduled there, and the other big part are doing AOS or claiming Nacara visas !
Click to expand...

veronice said:
Cuba IS in the data. The data shows 420 people processed at Havana with 224 issued. So don't worry, Cuba is already in the data.
Click to expand...

Veronice is correct, they are processed in Havana even though there technically is no embassy or consulate there:
http://havana.usint.gov/mobile/diversity_lottery_visa_program.html
 
If KFC (based on CEAC) continue to issue visas at the same rate as they have throughout the year, at the end of August there will be around 43,5-44k visas issued. Add couple of thousand of AOS to that and we have let's say 46k issued. Is AF and AS increase for September (plus AP) enough to to fill 50k ???? Or should we expect a small increase in cut-offs in upcoming weeks ???
 
franko said:
If KFC (based on CEAC) continue to issue visas at the same rate as they have throughout the year, at the end of August there will be around 43,5-44k visas issued. Add couple of thousand of AOS to that and we have let's say 46k issued. Is AF and AS increase for September (plus AP) enough to to fill 50k ???? Or should we expect a small increase in cut-offs in upcoming weeks ???
Click to expand...

Can you or anybody else confirm that the calculation 44k visa at end of August can be real? If so then I can relax a little bit. Any reply will be appreciated. But not lies, true calculation please.
 
franko said:
If KFC (based on CEAC) continue to issue visas at the same rate as they have throughout the year, at the end of August there will be around 43,5-44k visas issued. Add couple of thousand of AOS to that and we have let's say 46k issued. Is AF and AS increase for September (plus AP) enough to to fill 50k ???? Or should we expect a small increase in cut-offs in upcoming weeks ???
Click to expand...
that's enough. Still there are late.
 
rafikbo76 said:
Hi,

Here is the link of the updated data :
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gXQxNj7q7uYuFS9wtxyDM5wCvlUbiUkmzC5W1JG5Phg/edit?pli=1#gid=1133734000

The file includes new Columns : ISSUED, REFUSED, AP, READY and TRANSFER. That's because when case status is ISSUED, derrivative can be refused, ready or somthing else.

Totals are calculated this way :
  • When the case is ISSUED, only ISSUED column is considered.
  • When the case is REFUSED, All family members should be the same (it s not the case in CEAC Website) + Refused derrivative from ISSUED,
  • When the case is AP, all family members are considered + AP derrivative from ISSUED cases.
  • When the case is READY or TRANSFER, all family members are considered + derrivative in the same state from ISSUED cases.
Hope, By miracle, the next VB will be mine, Otherwise i don't know if i could do it again.
Click to expand...

Rafikbo,
Any updated CEAC data? Thank you so much for all your help.
 
rafikbo76 said:
Hi,

Here is the link of the updated data :
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gXQxNj7q7uYuFS9wtxyDM5wCvlUbiUkmzC5W1JG5Phg/edit?pli=1#gid=1133734000

The file includes new Columns : ISSUED, REFUSED, AP, READY and TRANSFER. That's because when case status is ISSUED, derrivative can be refused, ready or somthing else.

Totals are calculated this way :
  • When the case is ISSUED, only ISSUED column is considered.
  • When the case is REFUSED, All family members should be the same (it s not the case in CEAC Website) + Refused derrivative from ISSUED,
  • When the case is AP, all family members are considered + AP derrivative from ISSUED cases.
  • When the case is READY or TRANSFER, all family members are considered + derrivative in the same state from ISSUED cases.
Hope, By miracle, the next VB will be mine, Otherwise i don't know if i could do it again.
Click to expand...
hi
I a have a question about below link:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gXQxNj7q7uYuFS9wtxyDM5wCvlUbiUkmzC5W1JG5Phg/edit?pli=1#gid=1133734000
How did you get this site or document??
what's your refrence???

best regards
motamo
 
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