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CEAC data (Full) 8-1-2014

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Britsimon

Britsimon

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OK - had some demand for some of the good stuff - so here it is.

Some notes:
  1. This data is based on the script from Rafikbo. Enormous thanks to him for creating the script, providing the data all this time, and in an act of selflessness making sure that "we" had the script to continue getting the data.
  2. Rafikbo modified how the script counts certain badly updated situations (cases where the embassy did not update all derivatives on a case). This means the fiule isn't 100% accurate - but pretty darn close!
  3. I extracted EU yesterday and the rest of the regionstoday. In reality the embassies may not have finished their updates for July, but I am already seeing August updates, so I think this is about the right time to extract the data. I may update EU over the weekend to be safe. EDIT: I ran the EU numbers again late yesterday. The issued number had risen by around 80 cases to 15904. 80 cases is insignificant about the average daily amount, so I don't think that was an embassy update - more like "normal progress" For that reason (and because Googledocs sucks) I am going to leave the earlier file as the "official" EU number.
  4. I put some thought into the cases that are became current for August and October. That helps understand the true impact of the readies. Some old readies will of course come through, but mainly, the current cases are the ones that cause the bulk of the movement.
  5. We could guesstimate the AP cases that get resolved. Many of those will resolve magically in September. So - they might be the majority of the movement in October.
  6. So far the file shows 40535 issued. My guesstimates suggest August and October interviews will add ~3500. If ALL tyhe AP cases got resolved (unlikely) we would be just UNDER 50k (plus around 2k aos). This would be almost identical to last year. I personally think there is space to squeeze a few more in - but KCC might not see it that way.
  7. Let the debate begin!
http://tinyurl.com/p7lchg8
 
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Africa - Ready 13407 + AP 2404. o_O
In Kiev, the growth of the interview. Flee...
Total forms submitted 74687. It fully complies DV2011, 2013.
I still can not understand. Why do they increase the number of winners ???:confused:
 
Sloner said:
Africa - Ready 13407 + AP 2404. o_O
In Kiev, the growth of the interview. Flee...
Total forms submitted 74687. It fully complies DV2011, 2013.
I still can not understand. Why do they increase the number of winners ???:confused:
Click to expand...

This was entirely predictable - indeed everyone predicted it - apart from you. 75k submitted forms so far - probably around 90/92k if the numbers had not been cutoff - same numbers as 2011 and 2013. This has been explained over and over again. Because they were probably told off over underfilling the 2012 quota, and although some of the smarter folks probably pointed out that 2012 was a fiasco and AF region had poor access to the news of the redraw, the dumber ones didn't accept that very obvious explanation. I call it the "Siberian effect".

The enormous overfilling has demonstrated the "true" quotas - so perhaps that was also "understood" within KFC/USCIS/DOS
 
Britsimon said:
This was entirely predictable - indeed everyone predicted it - apart from you. 75k submitted forms so far - probably around 90/92k if the numbers had not been cutoff - same numbers as 2011 and 2013. This has been explained over and over again. Because they were probably told off over underfilling the 2012 quota, and although some of the smarter folks probably pointed out that 2012 was a fiasco and AF region had poor access to the news of the redraw, the dumber ones didn't accept that very obvious explanation. I call it the "Siberian effect".

The enormous overfilling has demonstrated the "true" quotas - so perhaps that was also "understood" within KFC/USCIS/DOS
Click to expand...
That may be true. BUT. In 2015, the situation repeated itself.
Yesterday I dropped the film. You watched it. Remember what happened to the people who sued with the government. The government took revenge.
In 2012 summer, the court ended with the State Department. In 2014, the State Department began to take revenge, in 2015, he continued to do it.
 
Simon, you are a star.

There are a few things I take from this for OC.

  1. The number of 'Refused' cases has gone down. (For all regions.) How could that happen? Appeals? Or was it an error? Anyway, doesn't really matter.

  2. If the estimate for August interviews is accurate, that'll take OC to 610 issued. If we resolve 50-100% of the AP cases in September, that's 630-653. Does 80-100 AOS cases sound reasonable for OC? In that case, the job's done.
If OC doesn't get a bump in the September VB (which would be most unfortunate), I'm hoping, as a 2015 winner, the quota was as low as possible. This probably sounds bizarre and unfair, but it lowers the visa/CN rate and makes any allocation from Nigeria in DV2015 likely to stretch a lot further. A quota of 700 implies a rate of 0.483, which would stretch an extra 50 visas into +103 CN and 64 into +133 CN. Still not great, but better.
 
connectedspace said:
Simon, you are a star.

There are a few things I take from this for OC.

  1. The number of 'Refused' cases has gone down. (For all regions.) How could that happen? Appeals? Or was it an error? Anyway, doesn't really matter.

  2. If the estimate for August interviews is accurate, that'll take OC to 610 issued. If we resolve 50-100% of the AP cases in September, that's 630-653. Does 80-100 AOS cases sound reasonable for OC? In that case, the job's done.
If OC doesn't get a bump in the September VB (which would be most unfortunate), I'm hoping, as a 2015 winner, the quota was as low as possible. This probably sounds bizarre and unfair, but it lowers the visa/CN rate and makes any allocation from Nigeria in DV2015 likely to stretch a lot further. A quota of 700 implies a rate of 0.483, which would stretch an extra 50 visas into +103 CN and 64 into +133 CN. Still not great, but better.
Click to expand...

Re 1 that is because of the different method of counting refusals.
Re 2 yes basically they have done what they needed to do. I always thought the OC quota must have been increased, but it appears not.
 
Sooooooo....

At this rate they will hit 44.6k visas from CP at the end of August. Plus 2500 AOS like you said, plus whatever APs they want to push through.

It is hard to predict what they will do because in my opinion they could probably add couple of hundred CNs to each region and not go above 50k too much. And we know they can go above 50k cause they happily have done that over the years.

From the security and "public charge" stand point it seems to be unreasonable to clear loads of APs in last few days of September just to fill the quota.

The data at least shows that all people who have received 2nl should relax and wait for the interviews :)
 
Big thanks for simon and rafikbo, for their devotion and hard work, you guys got all my gratitude for ever.

EU No doubt EU quota has in increased this year, as we can see 16k at the end of july and that excluding AOS, and with 1.6k waiting for the interview pipeline I presume EU will end up between 18k ~ 19k.

SA has gone over the bar of 1000 issued this year its also a quite significant increase for this region compare to last year.

AS I honestly think they won't hit the same quota as last year. the iranian outstanding APs fill the quota up to sep 30.

OC a big mess ! A huge increase in the selectees which misleaded all of us, as we see the final will be the average quota.

AF took a monster knock, europe has benefited from it. At it will end up at around 21k.

At this stage if and if any re adjustment on the VB happens it will only occur for AS or may be AF.

We have 40500 issued so far + 3k AOS
= 43500.
Its more than enough to cover august interviews, and the rest of. AF and AS interview in september.
 
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