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CEAC data and graphs

britsimon said:
I don't really see anything unusual about the ready cas or anything else in the graphs. The graphs show exactly what you would expect - and the moving graphs make a nice cartoon to explain what is happening.

Basically the graph shows that KCC load the machine with the ready cases. You can see the jump in KCC activity just after the VB dates - I.e. KCC arranging the interviews for the next batch of current cases - which the graph shows is activity that has an initial surge and then continues for a couple of weeks.

The the updates to other statuses is the work being performed by the embassies. The issued line is moving in a nice progression - exactly as you would hope as they eat their way through the ready cases that KCC is throwing into the grinder.

Am I missing something?
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I noticed the ready case are more exponential than the issued. This may be due to the 1-2 month delay between case going to the grinder, and cases getting approved 1-2 months later after interviews.

Another effect is that cases are indeed not in the system for the first few months
 
britsimon said:
I don't really see anything unusual about the ready cas or anything else in the graphs. The graphs show exactly what you would expect - and the moving graphs make a nice cartoon to explain what is happening.

Basically the graph shows that KCC load the machine with the ready cases. You can see the jump in KCC activity just after the VB dates - I.e. KCC arranging the interviews for the next batch of current cases - which the graph shows is activity that has an initial surge and then continues for a couple of weeks.

The the updates to other statuses is the work being performed by the embassies. The issued line is moving in a nice progression - exactly as you would hope as they eat their way through the ready cases that KCC is throwing into the grinder.

Am I missing something?
Click to expand...

I agreed with Simon, what is so alarming here. The data and graphs like normal and this is how the DV should progress.
 
House409 said:
I noticed the ready case are more exponential than the issued. This may be due to the 1-2 month delay between case going to the grinder, and cases getting approved 1-2 months later after interviews.

Another effect is that cases are indeed not in the system for the first few months
Click to expand...

The exponential grow in Ready status is normal and it should taken care of with the non linear CN progress. In first month, it usually high in CN and subsequent months are much slower in CN progress. We should monitor the issued count and not the ready count. Yes, we can see whether KCC has had enough interviews scheduled for 55k quota by looking at Ready count but it will not be a problem as long as the Ready count doesn't convert to Issue. I believe KCC will need to schedule more than 55k interviews in order to fulfill their quota due to AP and no show.
 
kayend said:
I agreed with Simon, what is so alarming here. The data and graphs like normal and this is how the DV should progress.
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Well, if you look at Dv13, the trend for 'issued' only started by day 90. For Dv14, the trend starts almost from day 0.

I guess that's because nothing was entered in the CEAC database for the first few months of dv13. So the two years may not be comparable when plotting the curve against the same x-axis.

On the other hand, the slope for dv14 seems lower than for dv13. Not sure the trend for this year is so alarming. At the end, they will for sure issue only 50-55k visas. All is now about how fast the cutoffs will progress to achieve this.

I think there are much more holes between winning CN numbers once we reach high cutoffs, because of the high entry country quotas. This should increase the cutoffs exponentially, don't you think :confused:
 
House409 said:
Well, if you look at Dv13, the trend for 'issued' only started by day 90. For Dv14, the trend starts almost from day 0.

I guess that's because nothing was entered in the CEAC database for the first few months of dv13. So the two years may not be comparable when plotting the curve against the same x-axis.

On the other hand, the slope for dv14 seems lower than for dv13. Not sure the trend for this year is so alarming. At the end, they will for sure issue only 50-55k visas. All is now about how fast the cutoffs will progress to achieve this.

I think there are much more holes between winning CN numbers once we reach high cutoffs, because of the high entry country quotas. This should increase the cutoffs exponentially, don't you think :confused:
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Definitely when special countries hit their limits, the CN will progress much faster and it estimate it will be 2x more in the remaining 5 months compare with the first 7 months. Regions like Europe, Asia and Africa will see exponential or near exponential movement in CN.
 
House409 said:
Another question for you Dalius:

It seems there are very little nb of ready cases for the first 3 months. Have you seen ready case disappearing from the CEAC database?for instance, the ones that did not show up at the interview. Do they stay all in ready status, or are they removed?
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Yes, there are some cases with varying number of derivatives. All interesting cases are here we.tl/0H2bByt5Ns
 
Dalius,

Thank you again for your graphs. I look at them everyday. They show how things progress. Looks like they have issued 16k visas globally in total, for roughly 160 days since Oct 1st.

I just paste the link here for those who have not seen them yet:

http://dv2014.tumblr.com/
 
Last edited by a moderator:
House409 said:
Dalius,

Thank you again for your graphs. I look at them everyday. They show how things progress. Looks like they have issued 16k visas globally in total, for roughly 160 days since Oct 1st.

I just paste the link here for those who have not seen them yet:

http://dv2014.tumblr.com/
Click to expand...

Amazing. I wish it could be made for each region. Well at least for EU
 
Hey Dalius, could you also update the graph showing number of selected DV case vs. CN range numbers? I'm talking about one of the graphs you issued in Feb 9. This gives avery good idea of the density of the cases. There are much more holes in the high CN series, and i would like to know if this density gets lighter with the latest data. If it is true, another chance for the high CN selectees ;)
 
House409 said:
Hey Dalius, could you also update the graph showing number of selected DV case vs. CN range numbers? I'm talking about one of the graphs you issued in Feb 9. This gives avery good idea of the density of the cases. There are much more holes in the high CN series, and i would like to know if this density gets lighter with the latest data. If it is true, another chance for the high CN selectees ;)
Click to expand...
I also think the case are not equaly dispatched ! The dencity is more in this first months, the prove for me is the slow progress in the starting, and the special countries as well ...
 
House409 said:
Hey Dalius, could you also update the graph showing number of selected DV case vs. CN range numbers? I'm talking about one of the graphs you issued in Feb 9. This gives avery good idea of the density of the cases. There are much more holes in the high CN series, and i would like to know if this density gets lighter with the latest data. If it is true, another chance for the high CN selectees ;)
Click to expand...
here you go http://dv2014.tumblr.com/post/79063445046
 
House409 said:
Thanks. Very interesting. Density seems to drop quite a bit for AF and EU once we reach high CN numbers. I think this is due to the high entry country cutoffs.

Also, # of family numbers per DV case seems to be more or less constant and consistent with what we observed over the previous months. For instance, around 2.3 for EU and 1.9 for AF.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure I understand how you interpret these graphs in terms of density
 
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