Can Immigration reform STALL.

[Nadi]

Will immigration reform stall in 2006 the way that Social Security reform stalled in 2005?

No one talks of Social Security reform anymore ... if the house and senate do not come to an conclusive agreement --- this might happen to Immigration reforms tooo ....

.... What are Ur thoughts on this?

 

[saras76]

It can stall depending on ..

Nadi,

Such is our luck that this is an election year. All bets are of this year because no one knows what may happen. Decisions will be made based purely on political success in Novemeber rather than logic. Having followed US politics over the last few years, here is my honest assesment ...

The immigration reform process will stall if Congress and the public views these reforms as an attempt to legalize thousands of illegals immigrants. The last thing any Congressman wants this election year is to look weak on "National Security" which like it or not has been very skillfully merged with "Immigration Reform". When you talk about immigration reform to the average American, they are thinking of illegals crossing the border and taking their jobs. They are worrying about terrorists getting into this country via illegal immigration. No one is thinking about the thousands of legal immigrants that have been suffering for years on end trying to do the right thing by following all the laws of "legal" immigration. Here in lies the whole problem ..

If the reform movement takes the shape of "Enforcement of Immigrations laws" and "Border Security" then it will get a lot of traction. If it is perceived as a bill providing blanket amnesty to illegals, then it will die a very quick death this year. With Bushs dismal approval ratings, it really does not matter what he likes or not. Republicans are increasingly distancing themselves from him and his administration. Even if the White House pushes for the "Guest Worker" program, I do not see it getting much support.

So its all about perception. If we get lucky provisions for legal immigrants will piggy back on a "Enforcement Heavy" bill. If not then we can forget about anything this year. Thats the harsh truth ..

regards,

saras76

 

[Nadi]

Lets hope for the best

So its all about perception. If we get lucky provisions for legal immigrants will piggy back on a "Enforcement Heavy" bill. If not then we can forget about anything this year. Thats the harsh truth ..

Yes "Enforcement Heavy" bill is more likely outcome, legal immigration might or might not be part of it.

Lobbying might not do any good this election year.... as senators and congressmen are more likely to hear what the constituent are saying then the paid lobbyist.

Lets hope for the best

 

[PainCard]

Nadi,

Such is our luck that this is an election year. All bets are of this year because no one knows what may happen. Decisions will be made based purely on political success in Novemeber rather than logic. Having followed US politics over the last few years, here is my honest assesment ...

The immigration reform process will stall if Congress and the public views these reforms as an attempt to legalize thousands of illegals immigrants. The last thing any Congressman wants this election year is to look weak on "National Security" which like it or not has been very skillfully merged with "Immigration Reform". When you talk about immigration reform to the average American, they are thinking of illegals crossing the border and taking their jobs. They are worrying about terrorists getting into this country via illegal immigration. No one is thinking about the thousands of legal immigrants that have been suffering for years on end trying to do the right thing by following all the laws of "legal" immigration. Here in lies the whole problem ..

If the reform movement takes the shape of "Enforcement of Immigrations laws" and "Border Security" then it will get a lot of traction. If it is perceived as a bill providing blanket amnesty to illegals, then it will die a very quick death this year. With Bushs dismal approval ratings, it really does not matter what he likes or not. Republicans are increasingly distancing themselves from him and his administration. Even if the White House pushes for the "Guest Worker" program, I do not see it getting much support.

So its all about perception. If we get lucky provisions for legal immigrants will piggy back on a "Enforcement Heavy" bill. If not then we can forget about anything this year. Thats the harsh truth ..

regards,

saras76

But, the Good Part of being election year is that politicians need money for elections and business comunity is the major force for providing money.

It all depends on how hard businesses push for it to get a favorable bill for EBs.

Why do they include all EB provisions in the bill? It's all because of businesses pushing for it. Politicians don't care about people like me and you (who are not even immigrants yet)...but they definitely care about money to fight election..

just my thoughts....

 

[marlon2006]

I think we have 50% chances to succeed. The reason why I think we have 50% chances is that many bills have converged in the legal immigration issue, adding provisions which would increase the visa numbers to the EB folks.

That's my only hope though. If most polls are right and show that 85% of Americans are against legalizations of illegal aliens, then I want to see which Senator will dare to vote in favor of bills which favor those. Yes, big corporations can pay campaigns, but this is not South America where people can buy votes from Americans as far as I know.

I think passing law enforcements for now and passing a guest-worker to bring new unskilled people may the final outcome ? God Willing our EB provision gets included there. This idea of not leaving my employer really begins to annoy me. I am getting tired.

 

[Nadi]

Why do they include all EB provisions in the bill? It's all because of businesses pushing for it.

Corporate America is has found the Mantra called Outsourcing to be more Profitable and easy to manage.

Just today Dell announced that it is doubling the workforce in India from 10,000 to 20,000. Microsoft,Oracle and most of the tech companies they are going heavy in the offshore offices.

Bill Gates is just pushing for more H1b visas .. not GC's ...


Might be they just want to train the Guys in H1b and once they are ready push them away to the offshore offices...

The companies who cannot outsouce the jobs ... hmm unfortunately there are the guest workers every one is taking about.

I do not think the business are pushing all that hard ... as it used to ....
My boss is OK with EAD ... and most business will say ok to EAD too, as they have the guy who is working and might not quit till GC is done.

 

[can_card]

Very slim chance in 2006

The issue here is not the guest worker progrem, it is the politics. The rift between SJC and Senater Frist may harm either bill. The rift between senate and house also harm this bill. The election in nov also plays a vital role. On 27th, if SJC brings new bill (Specter markup) with guest worker program, that replace the Frist's bill, there will be a huge battle ahead both in senate and house, from the openent of guest worker programs. Also, most of the members of SJC does not like the Frist's urgency to bring his own bill. It is a big question mark, how they will support the frist bill in floor.

In this mess, there is a very silm chance for the comprehensive immigration law before the election in november.

 

[garam.chadi]

likelihood of stalling the debate -- quit high.

In this mess, there is a very silm chance for the comprehensive immigration law before the election in november.

I agree with you ..... the differences in approach towards this issue, between House and Senate are irreconcilable. Specter's proposal is likely to meet stiff opposition from champions of the much tougher immigration bill passed by the House.


In all the likelihood of stalling the debate and move it on to the year 2007 is quite high.
-------> Hope so I am wrong and we all get past this long wait.

 

[SAM_I_AM]

I think analysis of immigration reform

Should be a part of immigration tests and N-400. This is a great example of how politicians successfully change the agenda and change topics.

I am a real ignoramace, but do the republicans think that there will be a huge line of 11 million people going south back to Mexico.

Do they really think making 11 million people into Felons overnight will solve the immigration problem overnight... hummm the police in having hard time handling the current felons as it is..

 

[marlon2006]

I am a real ignoramace, but do the republicans think that there will be a huge line of 11 million people going south back to Mexico.

Do they really think making 11 million people into Felons overnight will solve the immigration problem overnight... hummm the police in having hard time handling the current felons as it is..[/QUOTE]

>>> I don't think Republicans or most supporters of the House Bill, HR 4437, expect that the police is going to be sent out to deport 11 million illegals overnight. It is just a matter of enforcing HR 4437 passed by the Senate, which proposes to deny basic benefits and end the sanctuary to illegals. That would deter many illegals from coming here and also would gradually reduce the illegal population. Yes, I think the strong house enforcement is doable and practical. The bottom line is that I think the bill is realistic, and that is why the battle to discuss provisions may last for a while !

 

[khodalmd]

My 2 cents:

If Frist's bill go forward, the chances are 90% as every one need strick border and internal enforcement and EB category has not contraversy across the board.

If Specter's bill (along with amnesty to Illegal) go forward, chances of get through as a whole are 20%. House is never pass any bill, which have amnesty to illegal.

If spector bill go forward, more chances that section for guest worker and illegal will be droped at joint conference committee (same way immigration package was droped in S 1932).

In a totallity, legal immigration have 80 to 90% chances

This is my personal analysis.

 

[PainCard]

Business does not mean IT only

Corporate America is has found the Mantra called Outsourcing to be more Profitable and easy to manage.

I am associated with health care industry and there is fare amount of push from businesses/hospitals/etc..for increasing both h1b and eb visas..

Fortunately, jobs like nurses, physicians, pharma related, etc..can not be outsourced...and there is a true shortage of talent in these fields...

So, the point it that IT industry is not playing a vital role here but health care does...

 

[eBhola]

Fortunately, jobs like nurses, physicians, pharma related, etc..can not be outsourced...and there is a true shortage of talent in these fields...

Yes with the baby boomers getting old ... americans need healthcare workers to take care of them ...

Hence we see all this nurses go wild bills and a spl quota for them...

Wonder why the advanced nations need healthcare workers from 3rd world countries. The west has enough resources to train there own healthcare workers... The healthcare workers from 3rd world would have saved many more lives in there home country.

 

[saras76]

Growing concern ..

Yes with the baby boomers getting old ... americans need healthcare workers to take care of them ...

Hence we see all this nurses go wild bills and a spl quota for them...

Wonder why the advanced nations need healthcare workers from 3rd world countries. The west has enough resources to train there own healthcare workers... The healthcare workers from 3rd world would have saved many more lives in there home country.

eBhola,

You raise a very valid point. I read an article recently where the issue of "Health care Brain drain" was discussed in detail. The whole point was that rich nations are running the healthcare systems of 3rd world countries to the ground by attracting most of the health care workforce through easy immigration. There is nothing wrong with this but it is bound to have reprecussions for third world countries. Earlier it was technological bran drain, now its health care. The bottom line is that money rules everything ...

regards,

saras76

 

[garam.chadi]

There is nothing wrong with this but it is bound to have reprecussions for third world countries. Earlier it was technological bran drain, now its health care. The bottom line is that money rules everything ...

Yes money rules ... most of the private physicians in India have staff nurses who have no nurse training.. and they have staff Physical Therapist who did not go to college...

Almost all the physical Therapist who got trained in the college have come down to US/UK/Italy etc.

Good for them ... but bad for the population of India ( or any other 3rd world country).

I think there should be some international agreement .. particularly in regards to the healthcare workers ...

Like if the country is actively bringing in healthcare workers from 3rd world for there needs .... they should fund a medical college to educate more healthcare workers in the 3rd world country too ....

 

[marlon2006]

I think the braindrain may work the other way :
Sometimes it turns out that is one of the few factors that can force the government of third world countries to improve the standard of living of people there. During the high-tech boom in my country I noticed that somewhat corporations there improved salaries, working conditions, etc otherwise it would lose more and more talent to the US. We notice similar pattern for the health care. In my country nurses and physical therapist used to be commodities. Now one can notice their status is getting better. Brain drain sometimes is a good thing because the only thing that makes those lazy and corrupt third world country administrators wake up.

Yes money rules ... most of the private physicians in India have staff nurses who have no nurse training.. and they have staff Physical Therapist who did not go to college...

Almost all the physical Therapist who got trained in the college have come down to US/UK/Italy etc.

Good for them ... but bad for the population of India ( or any other 3rd world country).

I think there should be some international agreement .. particularly in regards to the healthcare workers ...

Like if the country is actively bringing in healthcare workers from 3rd world for there needs .... they should fund a medical college to educate more healthcare workers in the 3rd world country too ....