Can backlog really be eliminated by 9/30/2007??

[ma_nonrir_eb3]

Another month has started, and the glaring header at http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/ proclaims "Backlog will be eliminated by 9/30/2007...14 months remaining". Looking at the pace of things at the backlog centers, and given the fact that TR cases have not even started getting the supervised recruitment instructions, how realistic is the timeline that OFLC Backlog Centers are proclaiming?

Post your opinions!

 

[MDwatch]

Another month has started, and the glaring header at http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/ proclaims "Backlog will be eliminated by 9/30/2007...14 months remaining". Looking at the pace of things at the backlog centers, and given the fact that TR cases have not even started getting the supervised recruitment instructions, how realistic is the timeline that OFLC Backlog Centers are proclaiming?

Post your opinions!

It is realistic. It might take a little bit of time for the machine to get started but once it is it will work well.

 

[GC_Lover]

Another month has started, and the glaring header at http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/ proclaims "Backlog will be eliminated by 9/30/2007...14 months remaining". Looking at the pace of things at the backlog centers, and given the fact that TR cases have not even started getting the supervised recruitment instructions, how realistic is the timeline that OFLC Backlog Centers are proclaiming?

Post your opinions!

it is possible. I am not sure if they would finish by that exact date but by looking at flow of approvals we know atleast they are working now and ready to clear backlogs. As far as 14 months are concerned it's not guaranteed just their judgement.

 

[Days_go_by]

Impossible for BECs

Another month has started, and the glaring header at http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/ proclaims "Backlog will be eliminated by 9/30/2007...14 months remaining". Looking at the pace of things at the backlog centers, and given the fact that TR cases have not even started getting the supervised recruitment instructions, how realistic is the timeline that OFLC Backlog Centers are proclaiming?

Post your opinions!

----
I think it is almost impossible for these agencies to meet the goal.
These centers are so disorganized, they don't have a common strategy or plan.
Whoever came up with Sep 2007 just picked up a number far enough in future to avoid any outcries at this time.
I am not saying it is not possible, but looking at the way these agencies have worked till now, I do not have much hope from them.
They had promised to complete data entry last sep (2005), then pushed it to Dec and now they claim they have it completed (already July 2006). So, there is a well established pattern here, just pick a date, and on that date announce another delays of 6 months. Who can challenge?
They still need to send out 45 DL, it might take another month for them to send all those out. Then receive replies, and update their systems. My guess is it will take another 2-3 months to just completely enter 45DL.
Then there will be chaos of cases lost,letters lost, cases closed incorrectly, data entered incorrectly, which would need to be sorted out.
So, they would be left with pretty much 9-10 month for processing applications.
This includes sending and reviewing recruitment instructions (3 months? 6 months recrutiment?), taking decisions sending NOFs, reviews replies to NOFs etc.
If these agencies work efficiently, they can do it, definitely, but looking at their past performance and management ineiptitude, I do not think that overnight their productivity would increase 10 times.
They can also just take the shroter route and start denying or approving applications in a rush to meet the deadline.
It all comes down to how stiff the deadline is, if it is just another date noone cares about, they will not meet it.
If there is someone watching it closely and contractors have some penalties (nothing in contract) to pay for missing deadlines, they will meet it.
Do not expect too much out of them, for them it is just another case, for us it our life.

 

[ma_nonrir_eb3]

Maybe for RIR, definitely not for TR

Since TR cases that did not make it to Regional before they were shipped off to BEC still have to go through all the hoops of supervised recruitment, I cannot imagine how the BECs would accomplish the task of clearing the large volume of such cases within 14 months. The only way they could do this is by approving or denying such cases en-masse as the 9/30/07 deadline approaches.

My attorney had similar thoughts, and she even mentioned that she got approvals for some TR cases that had never gone through recruitment. At this point I am not buying into that, I am sure those cased were sourced from Region.

I too believe there are political reasons for that "14 months remaining" banner, and its likely there will be an about-face as that deadline approaches. I can bet my bottom dollar on that!

 

[Days_go_by]

FYI, did I not say so? easy to predicts what BEC F(*&(*s will do

08/04/2006: Elimination of Backlog Labor Certification Applications: Feasible in 14 Months?

* The DOL authorities confirmed in San Antonio in June that the data entries were about to be completed by the end of June and mailing out of all the 45-day letters might also be completed by middle or within July 2006. The authorities also confirmed that traditional regular labor certification applicants would start receiving the recruitment instructions with their prevailing wage determination to accelerate the recruitment process beginning from later part of July 2006.
* For a while, the employers received en masse the 45-day letters in the mail, but lately it has slowed down for unknown reasons. Sources indicate that the initial schedule has been somewhat pushed off. However, the DOL website still promises that they will eliminate all the backlog cases in 14 months. The period of 14 months may be a long time for the immigrants but a short time for the agency to eliminate tons of complicated labor certification applications. This is particularly true in that as the elimination program approaches the end of the rope, the morale of the temporary workers that manage, operate, and process applications is expected to drop substantially.
* The late slow-down of the pace of processing of the backlog applications raises a misgiving that unless the agency works out a special procedure or device, they may not be able to reach the goal.. There are still tons of traditional applications that await a time-consuming supervised recruitment process and adjudication including audits. The c6nsumers want to see some speed-up action before we approach the year-end holiday season and work slow-downs.


above from immigration-law.com

 

[Fair]

No

95% chances are that the goal will not be achieved... simply look at their history. When did they actually achieve what they promised?

 

[Chocolate]

looking at approval rate no

95% chances are that the goal will not be achieved... simply look at their history. When did they actually achieve what they promised?

There is a very good chance it wont be eliminated.Looking at the way they are processing there was mad rush of approvals in Jan feb 2006.Then the pace slowed down.And then a way of processing cases which got 45 day letter immediately and approving. The people who got 45 day letter last year are very unlucky ones.
Over that they told online status will be effective last week of July 2006 and it was effective only for 2 hrs and then removed.If they had to really do it there was no point having it for 2 hrs and then removing.Even if it was delayed atleast they shud have had one which works permanently .
Now there are also lot of people who havent got 45 day letter.
It doesnt look like backlog will be eliminated by sep 2007.

 

[Days_go_by]

I have been really pessimist till now but I was thinking about it.
The should have approximately 300K in queue by now.
If they have really completed all data entry and done with 45 DL, let's say we have another 13 months for processing.
And I will exclude 3 months for holiday season (1 month), winding down (1 month, Sep 2007) and another month for receiving and entering responses to 45DL.
We are left with approx 10months for processing 300k apps.
This comes to 30K apps per month, approx 1000 apps per day.
With 200 agents this is indeed possible,5 cases per agent per day, based on the following assumptions though:
1) They recruitment phase is not too cumbersome and long and does not need much review. IF they go for 6 month recuritment, they can't finish those cases in next 10 years.
2) All 200 agents are working on the cases, and they have proper support and infrastructure. Also, the COs can sign fast enough or they should get a stamp.
3) BECs do not create a mess with lost cases or incorret data, the less commuication they have with lawyers the faster they can process.
4) They follow a FIFO and announce the processing order regularily, thereby reducing the distractions and delays.
These are very simple steps and very doable.
In addition to these following steps can help them further.
1) DOL does not announce another major policy change, Carlos SOB doesn't come up with some weird idea to further harrass us.
2) Abolish labor substitution thereby reducing unwanted labors.
3) Allow porting of PD for multiple labors.
I can almost assure you that first few cases would be reviewed in lot of detail with NOFs but the last few cases would be approved in haste (to meet the deadline).
And I am still willing to bet that BECs will not meet their deadline, they will make a mess of it, it is not reflective of their staff, it is the DOL management which is inept.
I seriously believe that Carlson and other supervisors at BECs are getting some major kickbacks from contractors. They have been defending and working in collusion with contractors overseeing their poor performance and awarding them more contracts and awards.
And frankly poor management comes from the top, Bush administration has been working like this all the time.
Your comments appreciated.
-dgb

 

[PainfulGC123]

I have been really pessimist till now but I was thinking about it.
The should have approximately 300K in queue by now.
If they have really completed all data entry and done with 45 DL, let's say we have another 13 months for processing.
And I will exclude 3 months for holiday season (1 month), winding down (1 month, Sep 2007) and another month for receiving and entering responses to 45DL.
We are left with approx 10months for processing 300k apps.
This comes to 30K apps per month, approx 1000 apps per day.
With 200 agents this is indeed possible,5 cases per agent per day, based on the following assumptions though:
1) They recruitment phase is not too cumbersome and long and does not need much review. IF they go for 6 month recuritment, they can't finish those cases in next 10 years.
2) All 200 agents are working on the cases, and they have proper support and infrastructure. Also, the COs can sign fast enough or they should get a stamp.
3) BECs do not create a mess with lost cases or incorret data, the less commuication they have with lawyers the faster they can process.
4) They follow a FIFO and announce the processing order regularily, thereby reducing the distractions and delays.
These are very simple steps and very doable.
In addition to these following steps can help them further.
1) DOL does not announce another major policy change, Carlos SOB doesn't come up with some weird idea to further harrass us.
2) Abolish labor substitution thereby reducing unwanted labors.
3) Allow porting of PD for multiple labors.
I can almost assure you that first few cases would be reviewed in lot of detail with NOFs but the last few cases would be approved in haste (to meet the deadline).
And I am still willing to bet that BECs will not meet their deadline, they will make a mess of it, it is not reflective of their staff, it is the DOL management which is inept.
I seriously believe that Carlson and other supervisors at BECs are getting some major kickbacks from contractors. They have been defending and working in collusion with contractors overseeing their poor performance and awarding them more contracts and awards.
And frankly poor management comes from the top, Bush administration has been working like this all the time.
Your comments appreciated.
-dgb

Please note that there are approximately 20 working days in every month (exluding weekends / holidays). Therefore 30K apps per month means 30000 / 20 = 1500 apps per day. Also, not all are processing analysts in the pool of 200 BEc employees. Please take that into account for a more realistic estimation.

 

[Days_go_by]

Please note that there are approximately 20 working days in every month (exluding weekends / holidays). Therefore 30K apps per month means 30000 / 20 = 1500 apps per day. Also, not all are processing analysts in the pool of 200 BEc employees. Please take that into account for a more realistic estimation.

-----------
right, you are absolutely right, that comes to apprx 7.5 apps per day if all 200 process the applications. That gives approximately 1 hour to each analyst to review a case.

To say it in another way, we can say that BECs have 1 hour to process each case
(10 months*200 people*8hrs per day*20 days per month=320K man hours for ~300K cases).
That 1 hour can mean that it 1 person does the paper work, filings, etc for 45 minute and an anlyst then reviews it for 15 mins and takes a decision.

It still seem challenging, considering the complexities involved with TR cases,
so, if they get really picky about each cases, they cannot meet the deadline.
At one time they would have to move really really fast to meet the deadline.

 

[gravitation]

Please note that there are approximately 20 working days in every month (exluding weekends / holidays). Therefore 30K apps per month means 30000 / 20 = 1500 apps per day. Also, not all are processing analysts in the pool of 200 BEc employees. Please take that into account for a more realistic estimation.

Moreover, people will be entitled to vacatiton time, sick time (these are not h1b's, remember). That reduces the available man-days by a further 15%.

And what about the people who do just the administrative work and not process applications? Managers, admin assistants, replying to 7th year screenshot emails, taking phone calls?

I'll bet they can't beat the deadline.

 

[Days_go_by]

In my previous estimates I had assumed that BECs still have 300K cases.
While reading few articles online I found this at
http://www.morganlewisresources.com...cationID/322e3cb5-526c-4e74-b0e1-7969b86961e1

DOL recently issued the following BEC statistics:

* 363,000 AEC applications were originally received by the BECs
* 108,000 have been “completed," including certified, abandoned, or withdrawn
* 255,000 applications remain pending at the BECs
* 50,000 AECs have been certified since the BECs were established

THis was published in April 2006. So, assuming BECs processed another 40K cases in last 4 months, we should have close to 200K cases for processing in next year.
Not a completly hopeless situation, but BEC and DOL management are inept enough to make a mess out of it.