Brighter side of TSC

S

sg94ahpw

Registered Users (C)
This is not an attempt to praise TSC or anything. But if you do a careful analysis of data, you will find that TSC is predominantly processing 2001 case. I know there is huge number of people waiting for FP/Approval from 2001. Here is the analysis of data.

I looked at all entries in www.e-nairobi.com/aos which received FP this year (From Jan 1, 2002). There are total of 195 such entries. Now here is the split:

1999: 8 FP ------- All approved ------100%
2000: 27 FP ----- 25 Approved ------93%
2001: 109 FP --- 83 Approved ------76%
2002: 51 FP ----- 16 Approved ------31%

Thus, if you look at the data, majority of the people who have gotten FP this year are from 2001. This is contary to the belief that only 2002 filers are getting FP and 2001 are not getting FP. Also even among approval, the majority of the 2001 people are getting approved inspite of the fact TSC processing time says that they are processing 08/2000.

I know lots of you are going to jump in and say that you are waiting since 2001 and there is no denying to that. I just thought this analysis will be little helpful to our members.

This is in no way to justify extreme slowness and randomness of TSC.
 
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This proves the processing randomness of TSC

----------------- True Numbers-------- Expected Numbers

1999: 8 FP ------100% --------------- 100%
2000: 27 FP ------93% ---------------- 99%
2001: 109 FP ------76% --------------- 86%
2002: 51 FP ------31% ----------------- 2%
 
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My view in I-485 processing.

From July 1, 2002 to Aug 19, 2002, TSC's performance on I-485 based on the Tracker can be summarized as (I only take into account those cases with FP done before 6/31/02):

Year (for ND)---FP cases---approved (originally in Tracker)
1999-2000------7---------------5 (~3)
2001------------44--------------19 (~10)
2002-------------35--------------9 (~5)

Totally TSC approved about 33 cases, in which about 18 cases are originally in Tracker, 15 cases were registered after approval or collected by sg94aphw from various places. Now we have about 55 cases with FP done before 6/31/02 pending. In the last 50 days TSC only processed 18 cases in the Tracker, thus it will take another 150 days (5 months) to finish the pending cases.

Guys, if TSC does not improve the I-485 processing significantly, you should be able to estimate how long you will need to wait, especially for those guys in the blackhole (without FP).
 
Gking, how are you counting your FP cases?

I counted total of 195 FP cases for thsi year (Jan 1 to date). You said you are counting till June 30 and your number of cases are only 86. Does that mean remaining 109 FP were receievd after June 30 till today? That does not seem right. What is your starting date from which you are counting FP cases?
 
sg94ahpw, I counted the cases differently.

I just want to follow the the approval trend from July 1, 2002. Thus, I did not count all those cases approved before June 30, 2002. Put it simple,

First you search the Tracker based on approval date, you will find about 33 cases approved since July 1. Then you break those approved cases according to the ND. Next you count those pending cases with FP done until June 30. You will find about 55 cases pending. Again you break these pending cases according to the ND. Finally you will come up with the details in my previous post.

Acutally I have my own record to track only those cases with FP done. My record may be slightly different with that in the Tracker. But it should not affect the conclusion.

My only hope is that TSC could at least approve 20 cases per month for cases already in Tracker, or over 40 cases for the whole including those registerred after approvals and inputed by you.

Wish you get your FP soon.
 
GKing, thanks for wishing me luck but honestly

I do not expect the get the FP notice until next year. I think I have missed the boat. As a matter of fact, all the 2002 filers who havent received their FP within 1-2 months of filing I think have missed the boat. Lone exception to this was Kasim who get the FP notice after 5 months in July.

Realistically, I am expecting my FP notice sometime in March -April next year. if that happens, I will consider myself lucky. If that doesnt happen, I will go further in Blackhole like the 1999 and 2000 filers today. I really hope that does not happen.
 
There is no bright side of TSC!

The TSC (The Sh*t Center) is so random, no statistical calculation can expalin its randomness!
 
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