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August visa bulletin the final.

First of all, I need to thank all of you who provide so much useful information and insights for the DV process. I’m one of the guys who check the forum every few hours. The whole process is so stressful. It’s good to know so many of you walk through the process with me.

My cn is around AS11.5k (DV2014). I downloaded the CEAC data extracted in last May and try to predict my DV fate. I did something scenario analyses and would like to share the results with you guys and check whether I missed anything important or any of my assumptions is not reasonable. In short, I think my cn is at the borderline. I hope that I’m wrong and more high CN case will be processed in Aug and Sep.

Here are the values/assumptions for the analyses:

Total visa: 53500

AS quota: 9630 (18% of total visa)

Country limit: 3745 (7% of total visa)

Nepal

case/1000CN: 210

Dependents/case: 1.85

Selectee/1000CN: 388 (210 X 1.85)

Total cases: 3295 (6082/1.85)

Issue rate: 95% (based on DV2011 published data: visa issued/selectee)

Iran

case/1000CN: 257

Dependents/case: 2.02

Selectee/1000CN: 520 (257 X 2.02)

Total cases: 2977 (6027/2.02)

Issue rate: 70% (based on DV2011 published data: visa issued/selectee)

The rest of Asia

case/1000CN: 132

Dependents/case: 1.95

Selectee/1000CN: 258 (132 X 1.95)

Issue rate: 70% (based on DV2011 published data: visa issued/selectee)

Total cases: 5721 (11161/1.95)



Results

Scenario 1 (based on the above values)

~CN10200: Nepal will hit country limit

~CN10300: Iran will hit country limit (assuming some AP cases will be resolved by the end of Sep. It happened last year. So I think Iran will hit the country limit again this year)

~CN12000: Asia will hit the regional limit

Scenario 2

I found out that one of the critical factors for the rest of Asia is how many visa available. If the AS regional quota is just 500 more (10.1k, 19% of the total), the max CN will jump 3k to 15k.

Scenario 3

If the total visa is higher, say 54500. Asia will get 9.8k visa at 18% and 10.3k at 19%. Because the country limit will also increase to 3815 (7% of 5400), the max CN increase will be minimal.

Scenario 4

Of course, another factor is how KCC handles Iran AP cases. With 9.6k regional quote, if the issue rate of Iran is

a) 60%: the max CN is will ~ 12k.

b) 50%: the max CN is will ~13.5k

c) 40%: the max CN is will ~15.2k

With 10.1k regional quote, if the issue rate of Iran is

d) 60%: the max CN is will ~15k.

e) 50%: the max CN is will ~15k

f) 40%: the max CN is will ~16.5k

I don’t how KCC handle the situation. If KCC ignore the AP cases and keep scheduling new cases, the max CN may be around 15.2k-16.5k depends on the regional quote. If KCC makes an educated guess on how many AP cases can be resolved by the end of Sep., the max CN for Asia may be around 12-15k. Bear in mind that the above analyses do not take AOS cases in to consideration. Please let me know what you think about my analyses. Again, I hope that my calculation is totally wrong and all high CN will be processed. But, these are the results based on the limited available information.
 
Hm. Just discovered the US runs a "virtual embassy" for Tehran - website mirrors the ones for physical embassies. There is also a special page on the Ankara site for Iranian applicants, but it's in (... I guess Farsi but can't say for sure?) so I don't know what it says.
 
SusieQQQ said:
Hm. Just discovered the US runs a "virtual embassy" for Tehran - website mirrors the ones for physical embassies. There is also a special page on the Ankara site for Iranian applicants, but it's in (... I guess Farsi but can't say for sure?) so I don't know what it says.
Click to expand...
Give us the link sus?
 
KingKong said:
First of all, I need to thank all of you who provide so much useful information and insights for the DV process. I’m one of the guys who check the forum every few hours. The whole process is so stressful. It’s good to know so many of you walk through the process with me.

My cn is around AS11.5k (DV2014). I downloaded the CEAC data extracted in last May and try to predict my DV fate. I did something scenario analyses and would like to share the results with you guys and check whether I missed anything important or any of my assumptions is not reasonable. In short, I think my cn is at the borderline. I hope that I’m wrong and more high CN case will be processed in Aug and Sep.

Here are the values/assumptions for the analyses:

Total visa: 53500

AS quota: 9630 (18% of total visa)

Country limit: 3745 (7% of total visa)

Nepal

case/1000CN: 210

Dependents/case: 1.85

Selectee/1000CN: 388 (210 X 1.85)

Total cases: 3295 (6082/1.85)

Issue rate: 95% (based on DV2011 published data: visa issued/selectee)

Iran

case/1000CN: 257

Dependents/case: 2.02

Selectee/1000CN: 520 (257 X 2.02)

Total cases: 2977 (6027/2.02)

Issue rate: 70% (based on DV2011 published data: visa issued/selectee)

The rest of Asia

case/1000CN: 132

Dependents/case: 1.95

Selectee/1000CN: 258 (132 X 1.95)

Issue rate: 70% (based on DV2011 published data: visa issued/selectee)

Total cases: 5721 (11161/1.95)



Results

Scenario 1 (based on the above values)

~CN10200: Nepal will hit country limit

~CN10300: Iran will hit country limit (assuming some AP cases will be resolved by the end of Sep. It happened last year. So I think Iran will hit the country limit again this year)

~CN12000: Asia will hit the regional limit

Scenario 2

I found out that one of the critical factors for the rest of Asia is how many visa available. If the AS regional quota is just 500 more (10.1k, 19% of the total), the max CN will jump 3k to 15k.

Scenario 3

If the total visa is higher, say 54500. Asia will get 9.8k visa at 18% and 10.3k at 19%. Because the country limit will also increase to 3815 (7% of 5400), the max CN increase will be minimal.

Scenario 4

Of course, another factor is how KCC handles Iran AP cases. With 9.6k regional quote, if the issue rate of Iran is

a) 60%: the max CN is will ~ 12k.

b) 50%: the max CN is will ~13.5k

c) 40%: the max CN is will ~15.2k

With 10.1k regional quote, if the issue rate of Iran is

d) 60%: the max CN is will ~15k.

e) 50%: the max CN is will ~15k

f) 40%: the max CN is will ~16.5k

I don’t how KCC handle the situation. If KCC ignore the AP cases and keep scheduling new cases, the max CN may be around 15.2k-16.5k depends on the regional quote. If KCC makes an educated guess on how many AP cases can be resolved by the end of Sep., the max CN for Asia may be around 12-15k. Bear in mind that the above analyses do not take AOS cases in to consideration. Please let me know what you think about my analyses. Again, I hope that my calculation is totally wrong and all high CN will be processed. But, these are the results based on the limited available information.
Click to expand...

Very good analysis. Well, I think the calculation you put in place is correct. As you mentioned in every scenarios, there are a lot of variables that we don't really know like Asia Regional Quota, Density of Nepal and Iran from 7500 to 11000, Scheduling Approach (will KCC claim back AP cases for fresh interviews) and whether the success rate of DV11 is a good indication for dv13. It will have big impact to Asia even a slight changes in those variables but I think Aug VB will be able to answer some of the variables so it will have 1+ weeks to wait for the answer. Personally, I think Asia Regional Quota should be in the range of 10k to 10.5k if we can claim 4+k from NACARA.
 
IheartNY said:
But it does matter if the worldwide quota is running out...

Having switched from AOS to CP so late in the game Im afraid that even if OC goes current I'll be the last one scheduled at the Sydney consulate and then miss out because the worldwide quota is reached before my interview. I tell ya this is the most stressful game in town...
Click to expand...

Well I hope you wont be the last one scheduled... :( ;)
 
One more interesting point is that will KCC still actively schedule interviews for Iranian in Aug with the knowledge of most Iranian will get AP and it need around 60 days to clear their AP.
 
Asia from 7425 to 8900.

ROA - 235
Iran - 173 (ANK and YRV is in but not ABD)
Nepal is not in yet.

Only 206 CN so far from 7425 to 8900.
 
Kayend said:
One more interesting point is that will KCC still actively schedule interviews for Iranian in Aug with the knowledge of most Iranian will get AP and it need around 60 days to clear their AP.
Click to expand...
But what else can they do? Not schedule? KCC cannot know for certain if any particular applicant will go on AP or not or how long it will take to resolve it.
 
Just a final prediction for Asia
For Iran last 1000 winners,
For Nepal last 1500 winners,
For Rest of asia last 1000 winners,
will not get their 2NL
Max case number for Asia is around 20k
Sometimes i may be totally wrong....:D
Friends,I anticipate your comments...:):):)
 
SusieQQQ said:
But what else can they do? Not schedule? KCC cannot know for certain if any particular applicant will go on AP or not or how long it will take to resolve it.
Click to expand...

Iran already have 4k+ selectees for interviews up to July. So, KCC should impose a special cut off for them because it just doesn't make sense to schedule any interview in 11th month knowing Iranian needs a police clearance from FBI which they already have 1.5k backlog. Anyway I saw Iranians interviews has been reduced a lot in July cut off compare to Jun. So that might be the sign of maxing out.
 
what about Afghanistan ? As we know some selectees from Afghanistan they have case numbers above 15k as though mine, and just few are below 15k, sounds like they distributed the high CN for Afghanistan...
If as some prediction the high CN in AS will be 15k so if it happen Afghanistan will have just few interviews among 447 selectees less than 30% ...
If September become current then how they will manage it as If some one from Afghanistan get in to AP in month of Sept. then ?
 
Nick Aryaan said:
what about Afghanistan ? As we know some selectees from Afghanistan they have case numbers above 15k as though mine, and just few are below 15k, sounds like they distributed the high CN for Afghanistan...
If as some prediction the high CN in AS will be 15k so if it happen Afghanistan will have just few interviews among 447 selectees less than 30% ...
If September become current then how they will manage it as If some one from Afghanistan get in to AP in month of Sept. then ?
Click to expand...

Afghanistan will follows the Rest of Asia. Yes, if you looks at the distribution are more toward 15k above then it will be a challenge in term of logistics. I personally don't think it will go current in Aug and Sept but KCC has full of surprises, who's know maybe it get current in Sept but definitely not Aug because it will be very tough for interviews scheduling. If your interviews is in Sept, you have to be 110% sure you get everything it needed to avoid going into AP because in Sept I think the regional limit might hit anytime after mid of the month.
 
Kayend,
If there is no current in August,there should be a big jump for Asia with cutoff....at least 6k increase.
There is a possibility to get current also,if Nepal and Iran hit their country limit in august... Other countries have few selectees compare to Iran and Nepal...so embassies can easily handle the remaining cases up to september.
 
Stalin23 said:
Kayend,
If there is no current in August,there should be a big jump for Asia with cutoff....at least 6k increase.
There is a possibility to get current also,if Nepal and Iran hit their country limit in august... Other countries have few selectees compare to Iran and Nepal...so embassies can easily handle the remaining cases up to september.
Click to expand...

I really hope your prediction is correct. Let hope for the best in this coming month.
 
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