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Asia DV14 Progress from Jun to Sept

Britsimon said:
Nacara cannot be selectively used for one country. It increases the pot for everyone, so it won't be used to come to the rescue of Iran or Asia, it might simply increase the overall quota (and thereby, possibly the quota per region, if such a thing exists.
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Yes, I understand that. What I am trying to say is that the interview will schedule using 50k target and NACARA will be used when it is over target. If we looked at dv13, we have 51k+ visa issued globally and Iran issued 3.7K+ visas so that mean Iran only takes 200+ from the 1k+ from NACARA and in Dv13 only Iran hit the country limit. So, others do get from NACARA even their country limit is not hit. So I have a reason to believe DOS put up some buffer and all the calculation is based on 50K and not 55K. NACARA will use as a cushion for the buffer overrun.
 
sunil_link said:
Kayend u are doing great job extracting data from CEAC..are those 87 rejections real for Nepal? And what about non-show ups at interview? Any data about them?
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All data are extracted from CEAC and potential no show for Nepal is only 65 which is very low.
 
CWH said:
i could follow all of your logics, but I don't get it about Iran. If Iran will have already maxed out in July, why will it follow the rest of Asia cut off? And why Iran's quota is only 2700 visa? I ask these questions because I am trying to educate myself, not to question your logics or anything. Thanks!
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If Iran maxed out. It don't have much Cn waiting for interview so it doesn't matter anymore in our calculation. This is my simulation of what DOS will do when they plan for Sept cut off in 3 weeks time and I am taking 50% of AP to Issued. The rest had explained in the post.
 
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Thanks kayend for excellent work.
Now giving iran (at last) to max-out in july, and may be just clearing some of their Aps in september with perhaps around 50 cases still on the run for septmber as well.
And knowing that nepal has finaly gone special cut-off.
Finals for asia are:
18400 except nepal 10k~10.5k

Srilanka and cambodia are the two other countries that's holding asia to go current.
 
vladek15425 said:
Thanks kayend for excellent work.
Now giving iran (at last) to max-out in july, and may be just clearing some of their Aps in september with perhaps around 50 cases still on the run for septmber as well.
And knowing that nepal has finaly gone special cut-off.
Finals for asia are:
18400 except nepal 10k~10.5k

Srilanka and cambodia are the two other countries that's holding asia to go current.
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Hey vladek,

Why do you think Srilanka and cambodia will hold back the all region from CURRENT?
 
rafikbo76 said:
isn't possible the region go current and those second heavy weight put on special cut-off, just to fill the regional quota
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You arte suggesting that those second heavy weights will be put under special cut-off, right?
I really doubt it ! Because none of them are near the country limit.
There for I think Asia final will be 18400.

The only factor IMO that can change that, is the Cns distribution, if they are not uniform and not the same as last months, than asia migh see a higher jump than I predicted...
 
rafikbo76 said:
isn't possible the region go current and those second heavy weight put on special cut-off, just to fill the regional quota
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rafikbo76 said:
isn't possible the region go current and those second heavy weight put on special cut-off, just to fill the regional quota
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Ok after simon post I got your question!
You were reffering to AF I'm sure.
Honestly I do think so ( about the special cut-off for second hevy weight countries)!
But like simon says anything is possible with those clowns at kfc !
And I deeply wish you that..
 
This is purely based on stats and data from CEAC. AOS will take up 2% that can be safely absorb into the above conservative calculation. Previously I have been predicted it will go as high as 19.1k and that figure is based on 10k regional quota. I am taking a more conservative calculation for my prediction to avoid given false hope as much as possible.[/QUOTE]
vladek15425 said:
Thanks kayend for excellent work.
Now giving iran (at last) to max-out in july, and may be just clearing some of their Aps in september with perhaps around 50 cases still on the run for septmber as well.
And knowing that nepal has finaly gone special cut-off.
Finals for asia are:
18400 except nepal 10k~10.5k

Srilanka and cambodia are the two other countries that's holding asia to go current.[/QUO

Normally do they increase number of interviews in September than August???
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nerandima said:
Normally do they increase number of interviews in September than August???
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It depends on the available visa slots and demand, so it hard to say it which month will get more visa. One thing we can be sure is that DOS already divided the visa slots into 12 months to spread out the workload so every month for Asia it should have roughly 1k or so visa slots. If you look at July interview scheduled it have 10k after 10 months. I think for Aug and Sept, it will have roughy 2.5k to 3k visa slots. In Aug, it should have 1.2k and it could have another 1.2k to 1.8k visa slots for Sept. So, if is 1.8k then very high chances that CN will jump more than 4k.
 
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