Asia DV14 Progress from Jun to Sept

[Britsimon]

i hope KCC will use NACARA visas for us.. They pick more 140k selectees this year (more than 10% from last year / 125k). I hope they will use 5000 NACARA visas for us, so AS, EU, OC, SA, and AF can go current except some countries which has been met their limit. I'm still expecting that AS will go around 19k

The increase this year to 140k was from the previous year of 105k (plus around 5k in a second draw). So - the increase was about 30% - even though KCC exceeded the 50k visas in 2013....

 

[WingZero]

The increase this year to 140k was from the previous year of 105k (plus around 5k in a second draw). So - the increase was about 30% - even though KCC exceeded the 50k visas in 2013....

i dont know why they did this for nothing if they already know last year visas was not sufficient for 105k selectees then they picked 30% more selectees.. they only give false hope to some people..

 

[vladek15425]

i dont know why they did this for nothing if they already know last year visas was not sufficient for 105k selectees then they picked 30% more selectees.. they only give false hope to some people..

Last year was 105k + 10k second draw !
Apparently 105k was to little !

 

[EURO2014]

i dont know why they did this for nothing if they already know last year visas was not sufficient for 105k selectees then they picked 30% more selectees.. they only give false hope to some people..

I guess, in order to secure the integrity of the DV lottery system, KCC definitely had to increase the number of selectees from regions that had become Current too early in the process, leaving them unfairly with too few, if any, selectees in September. They might have gone too far in this respect for 2014 - probably the reason 2015 selectee number went slightly down - yet we also have to acknowledge that this year the number of selectees who complete the process seems to have gone up noticeably and hindsight is always 20/20...

 

[Britsimon]

I guess, in order to secure the integrity of the DV lottery system, KCC definitely had to increase the number of selectees from regions that had become Current too early in the process, leaving them unfairly with too few, if any, selectees in September. They might have gone too far in this respect for 2014 - probably the reason 2015 selectee number went slightly down - yet we also have to acknowledge that this year the number of selectees who complete the process seems to have gone up noticeably and hindsight is always 20/20...

Actually we knew (most of us) that it was a screw up even before October of last year....

And that was based on normal response and success rates. I'm not convinced we are seeing abnormal response and success rates this year.

 

[SKYSTAR]

Actually we knew (most of us) that it was a screw up even before October of last year....

And that was based on normal response and success rates. I'm not convinced we are seeing abnormal response and success rates this year.

Then how you explain the high visa issuance this year if there was no high responses rate?

 

[Britsimon]

Then how you explain the high visa issuance this year if there was no high responses rate?

30% more winners (and worse in some countries).

For example take Nepal. In DV2013 they had 4370 selectees and received 3316 visas. They increased the selectees in DV2014 to 6082 - a 39% increase! It really did not take a genius to figure out what was going to happen.

 

[WingZero]

30% more winners (and worse in some countries).

For example take Nepal. In DV2013 they had 4370 selectees and received 3316 visas. They increased the selectees in DV2014 to 6082 - a 39% increase! It really did not take a genius to figure out what was going to happen.

i agree.. we don't even need a system or whatever to figure it out.. even an elementary student know it's a joke.. but let's hope we're wrong and KCC have another reason and they won't disappoint us, although almost every year KCC disappoint some of us

 

[EURO2014]

30% more winners (and worse in some countries).

For example take Nepal. In DV2013 they had 4370 selectees and received 3316 visas. They increased the selectees in DV2014 to 6082 - a 39% increase! It really did not take a genius to figure out what was going to happen.

Britsimon, Thank you. Just two brief points:

* Nepal is not quite a good example in response to my earlier point (selectees from regions, previously becoming Current too early/running out of selectees in July/August) - I was referring to Europe, of course

* Not that it matters a lot for this specific conversation, yet all indicators do seem to point towards higher response rates for DV-2014, regionally and globally, some of us speculating about the underlying reasons in another thread, earlier.

 

[Britsimon]

Britsimon, Thank you. Just two brief points:

* Nepal is not quite a good example in response to my earlier point (selectees from regions, previously becoming Current too early/running out of selectees in July/August) - I was referring to Europe, of course

* Not that it matters a lot for this specific conversation, yet all indicators do seem to point towards higher response rates for DV-2014, regionally and globally, some of us speculating about the underlying reasons in another thread, earlier.

A few months ago I posted a thread that showed response and success rates based on previous years (I used 2011 at that time - and updated once 2013 numbers were available). I'll dig that out, but I suspect that once we look at the numbers (in a few months time) we will see that the response and success rates are roughly similar to previous years. There will be some variations (based on political or economic changes in certain countries), but in general I think we don't have solid reasons why this year would have had a better response rate nor success rate. Also it just seems to be the wrong answer to this problem:-

If DV2014 sees more cases going through and visas running out, would that be because:
A) There were 30% more selectees
B) Something happened that made selectees the world over much more likely to respond and have higher success rate.

I'm a simple guy - so I prefer obvious answers until I can understand why the more complicated answer might be true. A couple of months back Vladdy was arguing higher drop out rates (2nd holes as he called them) might mean we would see very high jumps - but I kept asking what would be the cause of that. He couldn't give me a good reason - and I still don't see how the opposite could be true either....

 

[Samontha]

View attachment 58

Hi

View attachment 58

Hi, Monashed, when will the August visa bulletine announce?

 

[vladek15425]

A few months ago I posted a thread that showed response and success rates based on previous years (I used 2011 at that time - and updated once 2013 numbers were available). I'll dig that out, but I suspect that once we look at the numbers (in a few months time) we will see that the response and success rates are roughly similar to previous years. There will be some variations (based on political or economic changes in certain countries), but in general I think we don't have solid reasons why this year would have had a better response rate nor success rate. Also it just seems to be the wrong answer to this problem:-

If DV2014 sees more cases going through and visas running out, would that be because:
A) There were 30% more selectees
B) Something happened that made selectees the world over much more likely to respond and have higher success rate.

I'm a simple guy - so I prefer obvious answers until I can understand why the more complicated answer might be true. A couple of months back Vladdy was arguing higher drop out rates (2nd holes as he called them) might mean we would see very high jumps - but I kept asking what would be the cause of that. He couldn't give me a good reason - and I still don't see how the opposite could be true either....

Lol
I had few theories actually ! You blew all of them
Btw do you remember that guys asking about the adesives stickers or I don't what a hell ! On the envelope sent to kcc ?!
He made me roll on the floor
That time I'm sure I've read that part over 20 times, just for the fun of it. lolol

 

[EURO2014]

A few months ago I posted a thread that showed response and success rates based on previous years (I used 2011 at that time - and updated once 2013 numbers were available). I'll dig that out, but I suspect that once we look at the numbers (in a few months time) we will see that the response and success rates are roughly similar to previous years. There will be some variations (based on political or economic changes in certain countries), but in general I think we don't have solid reasons why this year would have had a better response rate nor success rate. Also it just seems to be the wrong answer to this problem:-

If DV2014 sees more cases going through and visas running out, would that be because:
A) There were 30% more selectees
B) Something happened that made selectees the world over much more likely to respond and have higher success rate.

I'm a simple guy - so I prefer obvious answers until I can understand why the more complicated answer might be true. A couple of months back Vladdy was arguing higher drop out rates (2nd holes as he called them) might mean we would see very high jumps - but I kept asking what would be the cause of that. He couldn't give me a good reason - and I still don't see how the opposite could be true either....

Hi Britsimon, Thank you for your detailed and, as always, very helpful response. I do think we are not far apart on this matter: my input was simply in response to an earlier post above, commenting on the noticeable increase of selectees in DV-2014 globally (something like 105k + 10k second draw in 2013 to 140k/no second draw in 2014) and the one and only point I wanted to make is that an increase was justified and actually damn necessary for Europe, which in previous years had become Current early and was therefore running out of selectees in July/August, resulting in a quite unfair lottery based competition. Of course I did not mean to argue in any way in support of the DV-2014 increase of the number of selectees from Nepal and other comparable countries, where no such action (increase of selectees) had been necessary. As you rightly point out, the number of DV visa issued in Europe this year will most likely be proportional to the increase of selectees from the region. Makes sense? As I said: I think we are not far apart on this one at all ...

 

[Samontha]

Lol
I had few theories actually ! You blew all of them
Btw do you remember that guys asking about the adesives stickers or I don't what a hell ! On the envelope sent to kcc ?!
He made me roll on the floor
That time I'm sure I've read that part over 20 times, just for the fun of it. lolol

The increase this year to 140k was from the previous year of 105k (plus around 5k in a second draw). So - the increase was about 30% - even though KCC exceeded the 50k visas in 2013....

Dear, Britsimon, did you know how many Cambodian get interview appointment and visa issued DV2014 untile now?

 

[WingZero]

Britsimon, Thank you. Just two brief points:

* Nepal is not quite a good example in response to my earlier point (selectees from regions, previously becoming Current too early/running out of selectees in July/August) - I was referring to Europe, of course

* Not that it matters a lot for this specific conversation, yet all indicators do seem to point towards higher response rates for DV-2014, regionally and globally, some of us speculating about the underlying reasons in another thread, earlier.

maybe they used 2012 data to pick 2014 selectee

Hi Britsimon, Thank you for your detailed and, as always, very helpful response. I do think we are not far apart on this matter: my input was simply in response to an earlier post above, commenting on the noticeable increase of selectees in DV-2014 globally (something like 105k + 10k second draw in 2013 to 140k/no second draw in 2014) and the one and only point I wanted to make is that an increase was justified and actually damn necessary for Europe, which in previous years had become Current early and was therefore running out of selectees in July/August, resulting in a quite unfair lottery based competition. Of course I did not mean to argue in any way in support of the DV-2014 increase of the number of selectees from Nepal and other comparable countries, where no such action (increase of selectees) had been necessary. As you rightly point out, the number of DV visa issued in Europe this year will most likely be proportional to the increase of selectees from the region. Makes sense? As I said: I think we are not far apart on this one at all ...

well with numerically cns its already unfair lols.. Lower cns already have 90% success rate if they met requirements.

 

[EURO2014]

maybe they used 2012 data to pick 2014 selectee

well with numerically cns its already unfair lols.. Lower cns already have 90% success rate if they met requirements.

Sure - this, however, is the inherent nature of a lottery system and therefore pretty fair for everyone participating in it.

 

[SKYSTAR]

Dear, Britsimon, did you know how many Cambodian get interview appointment and visa issued DV2014 untile now?

Let me answer your question instead of Britisiom since he doing a great effort.
Administrative processing: 96
Issued:139
Ready:321
refused:1
Based on that, the response rate till now is 29.3%(96+139+321+1)/1892
This is based on recent asian date from Kayend. All numbers include derivatives.

 

[Stalin23]

Let me answer your question instead of Britisiom since he doing a great effort.
Administrative processing: 96
Issued:139
Ready:321
refused:1
Based on that, the response rate till now is 29.3%(96+139+321+1)/1892
This is based on recent asian date from Kayend. All numbers include derivatives.

But all selectees doesn't send their forms to KCC because of many reasons...so basically the response rate is around 80%.
So...according to the Kayend's latest data...

For Cambodia - 1892*80%=1513
Till now................557/1513 ~37%

For Sri Lanka -1616*80%=1293
Till now...............422/1293 ~33%

IMO....KCC may push up atleast 42-45%

 

[Britsimon]

Hi Britsimon, Thank you for your detailed and, as always, very helpful response. I do think we are not far apart on this matter: my input was simply in response to an earlier post above, commenting on the noticeable increase of selectees in DV-2014 globally (something like 105k + 10k second draw in 2013 to 140k/no second draw in 2014) and the one and only point I wanted to make is that an increase was justified and actually damn necessary for Europe, which in previous years had become Current early and was therefore running out of selectees in July/August, resulting in a quite unfair lottery based competition. Of course I did not mean to argue in any way in support of the DV-2014 increase of the number of selectees from Nepal and other comparable countries, where no such action (increase of selectees) had been necessary. As you rightly point out, the number of DV visa issued in Europe this year will most likely be proportional to the increase of selectees from the region. Makes sense? As I said: I think we are not far apart on this one at all ...

Yeah I agree, I actually think you and I see eye to eye on many things, not just this point. I do think that having more than enough selectees in all the regions has allowed KCC to pick and choose how they want to fill the global quota. As you say, that is particularly true for EU. It is a brutal process though...

 

[dmonis]

Administrative processing: 96
Issued:139
Ready:321
refused:1

From where do you get this info?