April Prediction

toto

Registered Users (C)
I guess recently we will see:
1. Lots of August-Sept EB3 indian cases approval before April 10th.
2. A few Oct. cases approval afterwards
3. Tons of RFE for Oct cases sending out.
Still not much progress for the processing date (at most Oct. 30th?)
What do you think?
 
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tinkari - this is what will happen. why ? read on ..

Aug Sep Oct 99 had a lot of applications.

As PD moves forward VSC will go back and look at those cases from
ND AUG 99 to MAR 00 which have become current.

EB2 PD moved rapidly past AUG 99 a while back.
By now most ND AUG SEP 99 cases of EB2 have been processed or are waiting RFE replies.

Only EB3 cases will be left - because EB3 PD moved slower than EB2

So we\'ll see more EB2 OCT 99 to MAR 00 approvals while EB3 SEP99, OCT 99 are handled. (See Myladoors tables - most of the recent approvals
are EB2)

Once EB3 also crosses the "HUMP" of AUG SEP OCT 99 we should see the
dates that VSC processes move much faster. There is a mini "HUMP" in
jan 00 but this is nothing compared to the AUG - OCT 99 HUMP.

I believe we are not far from the day when EB3 also crosses OCT 31st !
By May end we should see APR 00 cases of EB2 getting RFE or Approval.
(Most of them have FP already done)
 
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The probability of winning the lotto lottery is more than guessing the GC approval pattern from vermont.
 
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Comparing to statistics from last year, VSC has the capability of approving the 10 months applications in a period of three months if in a normal flow of applications.

If you look at the last year approvals, After a long delay they started approving the I-485\'s of ND sep 98 sometime in mid of May\'00. And since at that time they almost finished the H1B processing they started I-140\'s I-485\'s. And by Aug - Sep\'00 they cleared the I-485 90% of the applications ending ND July\'99(approving 10 months of applications in 3 months).

Since the overloaded applications in Aug,Sep,Oct where almost done, and thinking that 90% of the FP\'s are done by this month end, we should see the approvals from Nov\'99 - Aug\'00 in next 3 to 4 months. So by July\'2001 almost 90% percent of the approvals will be finshed ending Aug\'00/Sep\'00
 
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overloaded applications:
99 ND aug sep EB2 are done oct 99 is going on at a fast pace.
99 ND aug EB3 is done sep oct are going on at a fast pace.
once EB3 PD reaches late 98/early 99 most of these will also have been covered ! And we\'ll be past the overloaded months. This should
happen by May/June 2001.

So I think it will be Aug or even Sep 2001 before they process
90% of cases to JULY 2000 NDs

Apr 30 processing times may only show VSC doing Oct 31st 1999
moving forward by two weeks even thouh they are into Feb/Mar for
Other country cases.

I hope I am wrong and they go faster
 
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