Can anyone give reasons why this Fiscal Year DV 2014 there are about 125, 000 selectees? Can this affect the speed of the cut-off numbers scheduled for monthly interviews? Can this slow down or speed up to cover everybody to go through interview including selectees with high case numbers?
Any Reason Why in DV 2014 About 125,000 People Were Selected?
- Thread starter Ghanaman
- Start date
Britsimon
Super Moderator
In previous years around 105k people were selected. Many people (around 50%) don't take up the opportunity (because they don't qualify, or their situation has changed), and some people get rejected during processing (not many - I've seen numbers around 7 or 8% of those that apply). There are also some that won't get an opportunity to be processed because their country has too many winners and hits the 7% single country limit and various other reasons that selectees don't get visas.
In previous years the 105k has sometimes failed to fill all the available visas (50k after taking the 5k for Nacara). Don't forget the selectees also have dependents that have to fit into the 50k - the average is 1.6 visas for each application - although by country, some countries vastly exceed that number. It is also true that some years have had second drawings (of around 10k more selectees) to try to make sure the quota will be filled.
There has been lots of discussion/speculation why there is a 20% increase this year (from 105k to 125k). I personally believe that speculation about the immigration bill and failures to fill the quota prompted someone to select MORE THAN enough selectees the first time round. I don't believe anything else will affect the way those are processed (such as processing resources, tighter enforcement of rules and so on) - so the speed of progress will probably be the same. To me that also means the very highest numbers are more likely to miss out in 2014, and to push back the time when all countries go current.
However this is all just my theory - I might be completely wrong - after all - I only got interested in this whole process around about May 1 this year....
In previous years the 105k has sometimes failed to fill all the available visas (50k after taking the 5k for Nacara). Don't forget the selectees also have dependents that have to fit into the 50k - the average is 1.6 visas for each application - although by country, some countries vastly exceed that number. It is also true that some years have had second drawings (of around 10k more selectees) to try to make sure the quota will be filled.
There has been lots of discussion/speculation why there is a 20% increase this year (from 105k to 125k). I personally believe that speculation about the immigration bill and failures to fill the quota prompted someone to select MORE THAN enough selectees the first time round. I don't believe anything else will affect the way those are processed (such as processing resources, tighter enforcement of rules and so on) - so the speed of progress will probably be the same. To me that also means the very highest numbers are more likely to miss out in 2014, and to push back the time when all countries go current.
However this is all just my theory - I might be completely wrong - after all - I only got interested in this whole process around about May 1 this year....
bricepitt
Registered Users (C)
u got that right, speculations have merged about 2014 dv, but to me, i must admit that i share ur point of view, let's wait and see
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I'm very happy to hear a different point of view!!!! What do you think is the reason behind the increase?
NuvF
Member
The 5k reserve is NOT a complete no no for DV winners.
They have a claim to it towards the end of FY and as far as I know, it is assigned for DV in the final months.
However, if you check the past stats the final DV number allocation/full use seems not effectively done. This may be for VARIOUS reasons, some as britsimon explained. 125k may well be just to deal with those statistical anomalies in visa issuance and to fully utilize the numbers.
A natural (statistical) consequence that I would expect next year will be a LOT of 'disappointed winners' on 9/30/14!!
Best!
They have a claim to it towards the end of FY and as far as I know, it is assigned for DV in the final months.
However, if you check the past stats the final DV number allocation/full use seems not effectively done. This may be for VARIOUS reasons, some as britsimon explained. 125k may well be just to deal with those statistical anomalies in visa issuance and to fully utilize the numbers.
A natural (statistical) consequence that I would expect next year will be a LOT of 'disappointed winners' on 9/30/14!!
Best!