28 approvals for NSC so far this month in Rupnet
- Thread starter gc_aug_05
- Start date
waiting_4_485
Registered Users (C)
Nice one
Funky Junky,
Good to know that you did some thing for growth in backlog? why not the backlog itself. Please do some thing for back log.
waiting_4_485
Funky Junky,
Good to know that you did some thing for growth in backlog? why not the backlog itself. Please do some thing for back log.
waiting_4_485
paulclarke1
Registered Users (C)
Rupnet Report
I have been tracking Rupnet for almost a year now. The attached document contains 2 interesting charts. The first one shows the % of cases worked (Approved or RFE'ed) each week for each RD month. It shows how NSC is progressing through cases. The second looks at the total number of new approvals, RFE's or approved RFE's for NSC in Rupnet week by week as well as a 4 week moving average for both RFE and approvals.
Conclusions.
NSC seems to be about 1/2 way through Jan cases 43.6% of Rupnet cases show either RFE or Approval. Based on previous RD months it is unlikely that we will see Feb Rupnet cases move for another 4 or 5 weeks. (All other things being equal).
Approvals seem to be picking up slowly since late August/Early Sept based on the 4 week moving average.
I have been tracking Rupnet for almost a year now. The attached document contains 2 interesting charts. The first one shows the % of cases worked (Approved or RFE'ed) each week for each RD month. It shows how NSC is progressing through cases. The second looks at the total number of new approvals, RFE's or approved RFE's for NSC in Rupnet week by week as well as a 4 week moving average for both RFE and approvals.
Conclusions.
NSC seems to be about 1/2 way through Jan cases 43.6% of Rupnet cases show either RFE or Approval. Based on previous RD months it is unlikely that we will see Feb Rupnet cases move for another 4 or 5 weeks. (All other things being equal).
Approvals seem to be picking up slowly since late August/Early Sept based on the 4 week moving average.
funky...
it seems to me that lot of people posting on rupnet, probably close to 50%, have a dependent also in 485 stage (derivative) - either a spouse or a child. if that's the case, then even conservatively, each case on rupnet, usually, could amount to two approvals. however, that also hikes up the number of posters to twice, and percentagewise, things don't move. so yes, we'd need about 6 approvals per day (of course, considering everone diligently posts and doesn't forget password, or isn't naturally overcome by ecstasy or freedom-bells still ringing from the torn shackles) to keep things from getting non-linear. but, on the positive side, rupnet is actually 1% of the total cases filed (instead of just 0.5%) - so that has to be a big deal!
it seems to me that lot of people posting on rupnet, probably close to 50%, have a dependent also in 485 stage (derivative) - either a spouse or a child. if that's the case, then even conservatively, each case on rupnet, usually, could amount to two approvals. however, that also hikes up the number of posters to twice, and percentagewise, things don't move. so yes, we'd need about 6 approvals per day (of course, considering everone diligently posts and doesn't forget password, or isn't naturally overcome by ecstasy or freedom-bells still ringing from the torn shackles) to keep things from getting non-linear. but, on the positive side, rupnet is actually 1% of the total cases filed (instead of just 0.5%) - so that has to be a big deal!
paulclarke1
Registered Users (C)
I Think It is Just Noise
I think what we are seeing is noise in the data. From what I have seen where the cases worked factor is less than 10% the data is not reliable. The first couple of % could be bad data or some of the early approvals that we see in the scripts.
It is also true that not everyone in Rupnet comes back to fill in their data after RFE or Approval, what I look for there is the plateau in the data. Usually movement peters out after about 70% of cases are worked. The other thing that you should not is that I only look at first RFE or approval. Once a case is 'touched' I consider it worked even if it takes another 6 mths to approve. I do not count it again. I am really only looking at where they are. Once a case has been RFE'ed too many other things come into play to give the data any inferential value.
It is a little too subjective to give absolute definitive data, but to be honest I see a stronger correlation between Rupnet and immigrationportal.com than I do between the script data and immigrationportal.com.
I think what we are seeing is noise in the data. From what I have seen where the cases worked factor is less than 10% the data is not reliable. The first couple of % could be bad data or some of the early approvals that we see in the scripts.
It is also true that not everyone in Rupnet comes back to fill in their data after RFE or Approval, what I look for there is the plateau in the data. Usually movement peters out after about 70% of cases are worked. The other thing that you should not is that I only look at first RFE or approval. Once a case is 'touched' I consider it worked even if it takes another 6 mths to approve. I do not count it again. I am really only looking at where they are. Once a case has been RFE'ed too many other things come into play to give the data any inferential value.
It is a little too subjective to give absolute definitive data, but to be honest I see a stronger correlation between Rupnet and immigrationportal.com than I do between the script data and immigrationportal.com.
120 posts a month ...
means around 4 - 5 posts a day (assuming that rupnet users also update their posts on weekends, even though they might be approved in a weekday).
Already there are 3 approvals posted today and it is just 1:15 PM Eastern.
The last couple of days seem to be just start of a upward trend. Hope the approval posts pickup more speed and this trend needs to continue/stay for a substantial time.
But then, it is too early to be optimistic about anything.
means around 4 - 5 posts a day (assuming that rupnet users also update their posts on weekends, even though they might be approved in a weekday).
Already there are 3 approvals posted today and it is just 1:15 PM Eastern.
The last couple of days seem to be just start of a upward trend. Hope the approval posts pickup more speed and this trend needs to continue/stay for a substantial time.
But then, it is too early to be optimistic about anything.
HumHongeKamyaab
Registered Users (C)
Re: I Think It is Just Noise
that cud be bcoz script gives famil-based results also?
that cud be bcoz script gives famil-based results also?
paulclarke1
Registered Users (C)
Likely
We know several things.
1/. Rupnet mostly covers EB type cases.
2/. Immigration Portal also mostly covers EB type cases.
3/. I-485's are filed for other than EB cases (i-130)
4/. Data from the scripts that are run indicates approval on cases dated later than Jan 02.
5/. There is no evidence of post 02 RD cases being approved in significant numbers in Rupnet and no poster has claimed ownership of one of these cases in immigrationportal.com
I think it is therefore reasonable to conclude that the more recent I-485 cases that we see approved in the script data are not EB cases. It also suggests that unless you can know the the type of I-485 you are looking at on the web site (EB, FB etc) then the raw script results are somewhat unreliable when it comes to drawing inferences about your own EB case.
We know several things.
1/. Rupnet mostly covers EB type cases.
2/. Immigration Portal also mostly covers EB type cases.
3/. I-485's are filed for other than EB cases (i-130)
4/. Data from the scripts that are run indicates approval on cases dated later than Jan 02.
5/. There is no evidence of post 02 RD cases being approved in significant numbers in Rupnet and no poster has claimed ownership of one of these cases in immigrationportal.com
I think it is therefore reasonable to conclude that the more recent I-485 cases that we see approved in the script data are not EB cases. It also suggests that unless you can know the the type of I-485 you are looking at on the web site (EB, FB etc) then the raw script results are somewhat unreliable when it comes to drawing inferences about your own EB case.