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245(i) and it's impact on retrogression
- Thread starter mdh3000
- Start date
mdh3000 said:Reading the article about the February Visa Bulletin on Murthy.com, I noticed this paragraph.
Does this mean that once the priority date moves a few months past April 30, 2001, that the priority date will move forward faster?
NN
This is my analysis (originally posted on the Feb bulletin thread). Just my personal thoughts and predictions. There are obviously no guaranetes here and my guess is as good as anyone's.
ziv711 said:Some Further analysis and prediction
This is what happened: After the scandal of the last quarter of FY 2005, when no EB 3 visas were available, the state department realized they did not pay much attention to what went on with the employment categories, as they were all current for quite some time. It was really unfair that a lot of people with later PDs got their GC whereas people with earlier PDs were left behind. As a precationary messure, and to prevent such "injustices" from happening again, they decided to take the PDs WAY back. It appears that the state department doesn't really know how many people are in the line from each priority date. It's all based on estimates (According to the EB paragraph in the bulletin). So the way it works is after each time they publish a PD they wait and see what kind of demand they get. the October bulletin had 1/1/98 for EB3 india. They probably got like 2 applications (I'm just guessing), and figured - we were probably a little off on that... Let's move it forward. This happened through the February bulletin. They don't realize that most applications are from 2001 and forward, but they are very aware of the 4/30/01 245i deadline.
What will happen: India is likely to catch up with the rest of the world within the next two months, when the state department realizes that there is still not too much demand for visas, even with the recent progress. (Except Mexico). Now, say for example many people filed their labor in the last week of April, and many of these were recently cleared by the LC backlog center. Since these guys can't even file 485, there will still not be any demand for visa numbers. So there will be some forward progress.
So my prediction for the March bulletin is that Mexico will remain sometime in March 2001, India will get even closer to the rest of the world, which will move to April 30, 2001.
After that, the state department will realize again that while there is increased demand, it's mostly from Mexico. USCIS will still not process all the applications it just received with PD of April 2001, so there will still be lack of demand. Therefore, I predict significant progress in PDs at least until the June 2006 bulletin. After that it may start retrogressing again as the demand levels will start to increase.
Good Luck to all of us.
logical analysis
I dont understand why we are so much anxious about the visa numbers because of 245(i)cases. I dont see any big impact.
Here is my analysis. Please let me know if I am wrong.
1) There is an estimate of 300,000 cases of 245(i) out of which it is estimated that 90% or more are mexicans that have their own quota. So around 30,000 Principal visa numbers will be needed besides mexicans.
2) There were two options for the 245(i) applicants.. either they can go with the family based or the emplyment based. Family based is easy to apply rather than employment based as USCIS needs a lot of stuff for verification if someone is applying on employment basis. I would say fewer people applied for employment based. This will reduce the number of applicants in employment based category.
3) I know personally some people who filed 245(i) and they approved way back and lot of them are still pending at the backlog centers. So there is no estimate how many dont need the visa numbers. They are out of 245(i) applicants list so dont affect anything.
4) The retrogression takes effect in July. Until July everything was current. So whatever the cases were there in USCIS for AOS until july 2005 is done. Now the PD is at April 2001. I would hardly imagine that anyone can have PD before that date within the past 6 months and waiting to apply for I-485. The BEC is not working that good to finalize cases that fast yet.
5) Based on the above facts I would say less than 15,000 visa numbers would be needed for the employment based and they are further sub divided in India, China, Phillipines and all others.
This doesnt seem much to me. I would say that all others chargebility (in EB3) to which I belong to will become current in 2-3 months. India might take 4-5 months.
Please comment and let me know.
I dont understand why we are so much anxious about the visa numbers because of 245(i)cases. I dont see any big impact.
Here is my analysis. Please let me know if I am wrong.
1) There is an estimate of 300,000 cases of 245(i) out of which it is estimated that 90% or more are mexicans that have their own quota. So around 30,000 Principal visa numbers will be needed besides mexicans.
2) There were two options for the 245(i) applicants.. either they can go with the family based or the emplyment based. Family based is easy to apply rather than employment based as USCIS needs a lot of stuff for verification if someone is applying on employment basis. I would say fewer people applied for employment based. This will reduce the number of applicants in employment based category.
3) I know personally some people who filed 245(i) and they approved way back and lot of them are still pending at the backlog centers. So there is no estimate how many dont need the visa numbers. They are out of 245(i) applicants list so dont affect anything.
4) The retrogression takes effect in July. Until July everything was current. So whatever the cases were there in USCIS for AOS until july 2005 is done. Now the PD is at April 2001. I would hardly imagine that anyone can have PD before that date within the past 6 months and waiting to apply for I-485. The BEC is not working that good to finalize cases that fast yet.
5) Based on the above facts I would say less than 15,000 visa numbers would be needed for the employment based and they are further sub divided in India, China, Phillipines and all others.
This doesnt seem much to me. I would say that all others chargebility (in EB3) to which I belong to will become current in 2-3 months. India might take 4-5 months.
Please comment and let me know.
history or employment based retrogression from DOS
We cannot trust on inputs coming from lawyers or Murthy or someone else. These are all the predictions and we all can make it based on our analysis. I have collected the data regarding the employment based retrogression from the Visa bulletin from the past 6 months. We can trust this as its coming from DOS. See it below and you can analyse whats going to happen next.
June 2005
As mentioned in the Visa Bulletin announcing the May cut-off dates, demand for visa numbers in the Employment Other Worker category has remained extremely high despite the imposition of a cut-off date. As a result, it has been necessary to retrogress the June cut-off date in an attempt to hold number use within the annual limit. It is likely that the limit will be reached sometime during June, and the category would immediately become “unavailable”.
July 2005
The Employment Third and Third Other Worker categories have reached their annual limits and no further FY-2005 allocations are possible for the period July through September. With the start of the new fiscal year in October, numbers will once again become available in these categories. It is not possible to make any estimates regarding potential cut-off dates at this time.
August 2005
Demand for numbers by CIS Offices for adjustment of status cases remains very high. As the end of the fiscal year approaches, it might be necessary to establish an Employment Second preference cut-off date for September to keep visa issuances within the annual numerical limits set by law. If required, such a cut-off date is likely to be limited to the China-mainland born and India chargeability areas.
September 2005
The backlog reduction efforts of both Citizenship and Immigration Services, and the Department of Labor continue to result in very heavy demand for Employment-based numbers. It is anticipated that the amount of such cases will be sufficient to use all available numbers in many categories. As a result cut-off dates in the Employment Third preferency category will apply to the China, India, and Philippines chargeabilities beginning in October, and it is possible that Mexico may be added to this list. In addition, it is anticipated that heavy demand will require the establishment of a Third preference cut-off date on a Worldwide basis by December.
The amount of Employment demand for applicants from China and India is also likely to result in the oversubcription of the Employment First and Second preference categories for those chargeability areas. The establishment of such cut-off dates is expected to occur no later than December.
The level of demand in the Employment categories is expected to be far in excess of the annual limits, and once established, cut-off date meovements are likely to be slow.
October 2005
Item D in the Visa Bulletin (number 85) announcing the September cut-off dates provided information regarding the prospects of visa availability during the early months of FY-2006. Many categories have become oversubscribed for October, and cut-off dates established due to continued heavy demand for numbers by CIS for adjustment of status cases. Forward movement of the cut-off dates in these categories is likely to be limited.
November 2005
The backlog reduction efforts of both Citizenship and Immigration Services and the Department of Labor continue to result in very heavy demand for Employment-based numbers. The amount of cases currently being processed is sufficient to use all available numbers in many categories. The level of demand in the Employment categories is expected to be far in excess of the annual limits, and once established, cut-off date movements are likely to be slow.
December 2005
Many of the Employment preference cut-off dates have advanced for the month of December. This is being done based on the amount of demand currently being received from Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases, and consideration for CIS’s processing procedures and staffing patterns. Applicant demand for numbers may be expected to increase following rapid advances in the cut-off dates. This could cause cut-off date movement to be sporadic, and eventually slow or stop later in the fiscal year. At this time, it is not possible to predict the rate of movement in future months.
January 2005
-----
February 2005
The movement of Employment cut-off dates during the past several months has been greater than originally anticipated. This has been a direct result of low visa number demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases. It is not possible at present to speculate how soon CIS number use will significantly increase. Once increased demand does materialize, however, cut-off date movements will necessarily slow or stop.
We cannot trust on inputs coming from lawyers or Murthy or someone else. These are all the predictions and we all can make it based on our analysis. I have collected the data regarding the employment based retrogression from the Visa bulletin from the past 6 months. We can trust this as its coming from DOS. See it below and you can analyse whats going to happen next.
June 2005
As mentioned in the Visa Bulletin announcing the May cut-off dates, demand for visa numbers in the Employment Other Worker category has remained extremely high despite the imposition of a cut-off date. As a result, it has been necessary to retrogress the June cut-off date in an attempt to hold number use within the annual limit. It is likely that the limit will be reached sometime during June, and the category would immediately become “unavailable”.
July 2005
The Employment Third and Third Other Worker categories have reached their annual limits and no further FY-2005 allocations are possible for the period July through September. With the start of the new fiscal year in October, numbers will once again become available in these categories. It is not possible to make any estimates regarding potential cut-off dates at this time.
August 2005
Demand for numbers by CIS Offices for adjustment of status cases remains very high. As the end of the fiscal year approaches, it might be necessary to establish an Employment Second preference cut-off date for September to keep visa issuances within the annual numerical limits set by law. If required, such a cut-off date is likely to be limited to the China-mainland born and India chargeability areas.
September 2005
The backlog reduction efforts of both Citizenship and Immigration Services, and the Department of Labor continue to result in very heavy demand for Employment-based numbers. It is anticipated that the amount of such cases will be sufficient to use all available numbers in many categories. As a result cut-off dates in the Employment Third preferency category will apply to the China, India, and Philippines chargeabilities beginning in October, and it is possible that Mexico may be added to this list. In addition, it is anticipated that heavy demand will require the establishment of a Third preference cut-off date on a Worldwide basis by December.
The amount of Employment demand for applicants from China and India is also likely to result in the oversubcription of the Employment First and Second preference categories for those chargeability areas. The establishment of such cut-off dates is expected to occur no later than December.
The level of demand in the Employment categories is expected to be far in excess of the annual limits, and once established, cut-off date meovements are likely to be slow.
October 2005
Item D in the Visa Bulletin (number 85) announcing the September cut-off dates provided information regarding the prospects of visa availability during the early months of FY-2006. Many categories have become oversubscribed for October, and cut-off dates established due to continued heavy demand for numbers by CIS for adjustment of status cases. Forward movement of the cut-off dates in these categories is likely to be limited.
November 2005
The backlog reduction efforts of both Citizenship and Immigration Services and the Department of Labor continue to result in very heavy demand for Employment-based numbers. The amount of cases currently being processed is sufficient to use all available numbers in many categories. The level of demand in the Employment categories is expected to be far in excess of the annual limits, and once established, cut-off date movements are likely to be slow.
December 2005
Many of the Employment preference cut-off dates have advanced for the month of December. This is being done based on the amount of demand currently being received from Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases, and consideration for CIS’s processing procedures and staffing patterns. Applicant demand for numbers may be expected to increase following rapid advances in the cut-off dates. This could cause cut-off date movement to be sporadic, and eventually slow or stop later in the fiscal year. At this time, it is not possible to predict the rate of movement in future months.
January 2005
-----
February 2005
The movement of Employment cut-off dates during the past several months has been greater than originally anticipated. This has been a direct result of low visa number demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases. It is not possible at present to speculate how soon CIS number use will significantly increase. Once increased demand does materialize, however, cut-off date movements will necessarily slow or stop.