• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

2012 Visa bulletin predictions

C

Concerned_

Registered Users (C)
Has anyone heard or thought about how visa bulletin numbers will move this year? I was using last three years numbers to estimate when my DV2012 visa number becomes current but now I am not sure how much confidence I can put on those. Two reasons why.
First, this is the first year when KCC did not mail any hard copies of notification letters so I wonder if this results in higher or lower number of applicants this year. I am talking about the ones who decide to pursue the visa by submitting DS-122, 230 forms or AOS.
Second, two month delay in winning notifications because of computer glitch in round one. This is especially important for those with lower rank numbers because they have to have their documents ready in October-November and it is literally in two months time.
Any opinions?
 
hello Concerned,
i am wondering if anyone have any solid explanation about why Asia have very hight CN this year. i have seen some have as high as AS00071XXX while the highest CN for Asia last year in this forum was not more than 5XXXX. or maybe 45000
 
The 2012 visa bulletin for october will be published in August 15th.
xrj, can you check you Entry Status right now, let us know if you receive the notification letter today, none of us seem to get it today.
 
xrj said:
hello Concerned,
i am wondering if anyone have any solid explanation about why Asia have very hight CN this year. i have seen some have as high as AS00071XXX while the highest CN for Asia last year in this forum was not more than 5XXXX. or maybe 45000
Click to expand...

This is odd. From what I have learnt (and I am new to DV process) this number look like AF number. This makes me suspect if some of the middle numbers are skipped, and if they are this will make visa bulletin numbers even more unpredictable. I am curious to see what the highest AF and EU number was this year so far.
 
rdada said:
The 2012 visa bulletin for october will be published in August 15th.
xrj, can you check you Entry Status right now, let us know if you receive the notification letter today, none of us seem to get it today.
Click to expand...

As analysis of past ten years of DV visa bulletin shows the initial October number is not very reliable to predict how visas will move throughout the year. However, during the past three years this number could have been used for this purpose, numbers were adding around 2500 visas/month. But, because of the reasons i stated in my first post I am wondering if this number still can be used for reliable prediction this year.
 
I hope all the numbers will be current soon, as the letters aren't sent.
Concerned_ as i asked xrj, can you check you Entry Status right now, let us know if you receive the notification letter today, none of us seem to get it today. Let us know if you will get a Notification Letter today.
 
I would, but i do not have my E-DV confirmation number on me right now. But it seems like DOS DV visa website had some issues today, as some people already called KCC before they closed today.
 
Thanks for the reply. I checked the website a moment ago, its back and its not doing that anymore.
 
hello rdada, this is really weired!!! i went to check my status and it says "HAS NOT BEEN SELECTED" i tried it 2 times but i got the same. i think the wetside is down or something. i hope it could be anything but not another selection glitch. :( .
rdada said:
The 2012 visa bulletin for october will be published in August 15th.
xrj, can you check you Entry Status right now, let us know if you receive the notification letter today, none of us seem to get it today.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Gentlemen, not to be rude, but let's stick to the main idea of this thread which is to see if anyone heard how the numbers will move this year. There is a lot of uncertainty ahead of all of us.
 
dis66 said:
...If this is true, then a EU case number of 20,000 might actually be 17,000 or a AF case of 40,000 might be 35,000 or so...
Click to expand...

How did you determine that the offset for EU might be 3000. I know it is a speculation, but I mean why/how the 3000? why not 4000, or 5000 etc?
 
xrj said:
hello Concerned,
i am wondering if anyone have any solid explanation about why Asia have very hight CN this year. i have seen some have as high as AS00071XXX while the highest CN for Asia last year in this forum was not more than 5XXXX. or maybe 45000
Click to expand...

Are you sure that 71K is true??? Somebody can jump out and say " my CN is AS80K!!
 
hi, i am wondering why it is weired to see 88000 for Asia or Europ??? since there are 90,000 to 100,000 winners, its normal to see even 90,000 in any region. please tell me what im missing!!! this forum does not represent a random selection of the winners, does it? anyways, i hope the next VB that is coming after a week will clearafy this for everyone. I hop and pray they didn't use the 90,000 or the 22,000 so I could be current sooner. :)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top