02047 processing trend

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BigFanOfBCIS

Registered Users (C)
The chart shows the number of adjudicated cases and that of cases still being processed as a function of time, starting with February. The trend appears to be slower-than-linear, with the optimistic expected wait of ~6 months on average.
 
Are you saying that they have "touched" (approved/transferred/denied) close to 170 cases in the last week of May? Are these all comers are just 485?
 
Are you saying that they have "touched" (approved/transferred/denied) close to 170 cases in the last week of May? Are these all comers are just 485?
 
Chart details

The chart shows the cumulative number of cases. It is NOT 170 cases per day (or per data point), as would be obvious to anyone who spent more than 5 minutes reading through the posts.

The graph shows adjudicated (as opposed to "touched") cases, meaning that the RFEs are included in the "pending" cases.

The rate of decrease of "pending" cases regrettably appears to be decreasing, hence the "slower-than-linear" remark.

The chart shows only the 485 cases, with WACs from 0204750000 through 02047 53000.

...And I was darn sure that the chart was easy to understand...
 
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Thanks for the explanation.Even though the rate of decline in pending cases is decreasing, the overall picture- i.e., the number of adjudigated cases are on the rise, albeit slowly.Isn't that a good thing?

Also, in the same time interval, if a BCIS officer adjudigated a case other than between 0204750000 through 02047 53000, the graph would look different wouldn't it? For example, if a 020535**** case was picked in the same time interval and adjudigated, that wouldn't reflect on your graph.From the postings here it appears that the adjudigations are not progressing sequentially by numbers - am i correct? If that were the case then this graph indicates the trend for adjudigations between the numbers you have quoted and not the CSC total activity on 485s. Correct me if i am wrong.
 
You are right, i am only plotting a small fraction of activity, corresponding to roughly one day worth of applications. It just happens that this one is relevant to me. On the other hand, Kashmir's data appears to indicate that the number of adjudicated cases is distributed roughly as error-function(
erftester01.gif
), centered at the JIT date and ~50 days wide. It means that the average rate of processing is highest for ~Nov 16 ND and falls of on either side of that date. Lately, however, they seem to look more at the older cases, cleaning up that end of the distribution.

Here's some discouraging math. The total CSC processing rate according to the model I just described would be ~11% of one day worth of applications in 4 months (from my graph), multiplied by ~50 day width of the distribution = 5.5 days worth of applications in 4 MONTHS! Just to keep up with the steady influx of applications they need to speed up by a factor of 4*30/5.5~20!!! In other words, the person applying today will have to wait 20 days longer than the person who applied yesterday. If the expected wait for me is ~6 months, it is 20 years and 6 months for the person whose RD is Nov 23 2002.

All of it is, of course, if the current trend continues. In my opinion, the chances of the trend getting worse are about the same as those of an improvement.

Good luck to those joining this board (and the BCIS process) now.

Originally posted by ECGC
Thanks for the explanation.Even though the rate of decline in pending cases is decreasing, the overall picture- i.e., the number of adjudigated cases are on the rise, albeit slowly.Isn't that a good thing?

Also, in the same time interval, if a BCIS officer adjudigated a case other than between 0204750000 through 02047 53000, the graph would look different wouldn't it? For example, if a 020535**** case was picked in the same time interval and adjudigated, that wouldn't reflect on your graph.From the postings here it appears that the adjudigations are not progressing sequentially by numbers - am i correct? If that were the case then this graph indicates the trend for adjudigations between the numbers you have quoted and not the CSC total activity on 485s. Correct me if i am wrong.
Click to expand...
 
BigFanOfBCIS, I agree with your calculations, though 1 spanner in the gears, the distribution of the # of apps per day is very haphazard. Project Kashmir is the ultimate source of educated estimates.
 
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