Search results

Disappointment is result of unfulfilled hope. Expectation is based not on hope, but more on knowledge.

They prepare all reports at once. Including those that are not quotaed BTW, only 3 months passed sine the end of the year - not all visas were used yet, and not all babies born after visa was obtained entered US

I still think they are supposed to release visa numbers back to KCC, and KCC is supposed to reallocate them to new applicants. But I might be mistaken. It seems like 42.51 PN3 confirms what I am saying.

The way Wolfsdorf described AOS is the following. For CP they get visa number first, and if the interview is OK and no AP is required, they issue you the visa. For AOS the interview is first, then if it is OK, they request a visa number from KCC/NVC. If AP is required, it is before they request...

Interesting to know. I looked into CEAC data for 2013. What I see there on 9/20 and further for 3 consulates - ABD (Abu Dhabi), ANK (Ankara), YRV (Yerevan) for Asia ABD - 1 visa on 22, 2 on 24, 2 on 26, 2 on 30 ANK - 16 on 20, 2 on 21, 8 on 22, 8 on 23, 11 on 24, 4 on 25, 14 on 26, 13 on 30...

What do you mean by moving target? DV visa numbers? Or NACARA figures? I think they might get NACARA data with some delay. But KCC/NVC is the authority that issues visa numbers, so consulates can issue visas only after they get visa number from NVC (I think for DV it is KCC but I am not 100%...

158 nacara 202 and 3223 nacara 203 for 2011.

Nacara 202 was 248, Nacara 203 - 3705 for 2010. And 3774/7% = 53914. If they include Nacara 203, then 7% is violated. If they include only 202, it is not violated. Also, there was no announcement that year that Ethiopia hit the limit. So, the limit could have been even higher, 53914 or even...

In DV-13 it was 30532. In DV-14 it is going to be ~35K plus/minus 2k. It is higher. Maybe because of Nacara even higher, 5% higher as Simon suggested.

Big jumps do not happen in the regions that have no special countries. In DV-13 only EU and AF had big jumps. Obviously, the reason is that when regional cutoff exceeds the limit for non-regulated special county (in EU Ukraine is not regulated by cutoff, in AF Ghana is not regulated; Ukraine had...

20050 for EU is right on the border where U countries become very scarce. So, if that is the case, March cutoff for EU is going to be much higher - because Ukraine will have no more or almost no more numbers.

I am afraid that was about Ankara consular data, sandwiched between EU and AS numbers

I just had a turkey sandwich for breakfast :)

Why do you think so?

The sum of regional quotas cannot be less than 50000. The figures you are looking at are not quotas. They are the same as quotas only is quotas we filled. Those years they were not filled.

As far as I remember, Ghana had special cut-off many years ago. At least 2003 through 2008

There are a few years when nacara was not part of quote. 55000 were available for DV, 7% is 3850. The real amount of visas per county those years never exceeded 3859. I would attribute those 9 for babies at most. I would also say 9 is max for babies allother years as well.

One column is missing. total minus special countries (non-special countries)

Generally, I support this idea. But it is not easy to figure out who is icluded into the FIRST 115k, because ofspecial countries

dv-13 ceac data shows kiev consulate numbers above 15000, up to 30000, there are totally about 40 of them. While there are definitely more than 1500 of them under 15000. So that is not impossible. However, the amount of those numbers should be really small.