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Probably not. I could rerun more or less frequently a certain small intervals of numbers only

Look. The regular estimate (based on DV-13 flow) would be between 1650-1820. Now, we have two possible effects on top of that. 1. Fiji effect. We see an enormous refusal rate for Fiji so far in DV-14 compared to DV-13. However, that could be a fluctuation that could disappear later. If not, that...

My estimation of Sloner effect was exact. 1840-2270

U countries include both Ukraine and Uzbekistan - the number of winners almost did not change since DV-13. Rissua is unlikely to hit 3500 limit - it had too little amount of visas in DV-13. That is why you do it with 2 countries only.

35K amount already included that type of calculations. But the idea is that because of special countries (U-countries in EU) you cannot just simply use 34/46. Instead, you should subtract the number of visas for U-countries from both figures, because the amount of winners from U-countires did...

If throughout the year (DV-14) 2220 interviews are going to be scheduled in Warsaw, what is 69% of DV-13 amount, then it is logical to think that during the first 4 months of the year (Oct-Dec) also about 69% of DV-13 amount (Oct - Dec) are going to be scheduled in Warsaw. That is exactly what...

Because we are talking about Europe (Warsaw consulate handles two countries, and they both are in Europe). Europe has numbers upto 54K, and my prospects for Europe were about 35K (withoout possible 5% adjustment), so I would assume about 2220 interviews are going to be scheduled in Warsaw in DV-14.

Come on. It it easier to say your have not read my answer to your question. October through January is 170 in DV-14 vs 250 in DV-13, that is 68%. The number of winners in DV-13 from Poland + Belarus is 3233, in DV-14 3425. 3425*35/54 = 2220, what is 69% of 3233. So, we have exactly the same...

I already answered that. Multiply the number of winners in 2014 by 35/54 (because only about that amount is going to be called for interview). Then the number of winners is less than in 2013, about 30% less. That is exactly what we see with interviews.

Here are your predictions: So, the only info that has changed since then was 2500 or less shift for some months, right? So, that 2500 adjustment for several months leads to conclusion for 5000 adjustment for April?

By saying "further" you mean those numbers are adjusted already, from you earlier predictions, right? As far as I remember, your earlier prediction for April was 32000 for EU. Now it is down to 27000. Would you mind using this simple example answering just 2 questions. 1. How was the original...

DOS data allows also calculating AOS number per specific program. Table 3 is CP only, table 7 is AOS + CP combined. You can get the number of AOS's using subtraction

I think there are following differences between DOS and USCIS data: 1. DOS counts per specific program (DV-12), the number of visas given (not necessarily used for entry) and the number of AOS's done 2. USCIS counts per fiscal year, the number of persons who immigrated to the US (which means...

Culturally they are with Europe. However, Europe has geographical borders, and they are outside. Look in wikipedia - article about Europe

Interesting enough, Cyprus and Armenia are in Asia. Greenland is in North America. Those places plus other soviet republics are attributed to Europe for DV purposes. Also, Kazakhstan is partly in Europe - it was unexpected to me. Turkey is 96% in Asia, but it is also attributed to Europe for DV...

I was trying to do the same type of predictions I did for Asia/Ira/Nepal for EU and AF. The problem is that the rate of submitting documents to KCC for beginning of January and end of May is very much different for EU than for AS. The second problem is that I have good estimate where Ukrainian...

Yes, that all makes sense. I agree only 202 does matter, not 203. It is possble, however, that they reduce each year much less than 5000 or 10000. Like I am pretty sure in DV-13 53443 = 3741/7% is the world max, and they reduced only for 1557 (=55000-53443) or so. Because they reduce much less...

Do not expect a big jump before Nepal or/and Iran have special cutoff or asian regional cutoff goes above nepalese or iranian limit

In 2012 Uzbekistan was stuck on 16500 for 5 months. In 2013 it was stuck on 13400 for 3 months. I also think they were and are waiting for more cases in KCC. The submission rate is lower yet than in previous years, and they want to have more precise picture not to overfill the quota.