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In some previous years regions were also exhausted in the middle of a month.

Visas for Iran in DV-13 were exhausted on Sept. 20th.

Nothing serious, we knew that long ago.

Right. Additionally, that means from my point of view they are trying to say cutoffs for August and September are not going to be Current.

For August DV-14 compared to DV-13 AF 69300 is lower than 81200 AS 12700 islower than Current EU 40125 is lower than Current OC 1450 is lower than 1600 SA 1550 is lower than Current Same thing for some country cut-offs. Several problems though, like for NA Current is higher than 3. That is...

they will be cancelled in the same way as they happened to be cancelled in the past. Visa numbers are not allocated when the interview is scheduled, they are allocated later, closer to the date of interview

Not necessarily. Figures for September are due early July, and visas might be exhausted later

DOS Alert: Overall Movement of Cut-off Dates for Diversity Visas (FY2014) AILA Liaison practice alert informs members that many more applicants registered for DV-2014 are pursuing their cases for visa issuance than in years past. This increased response is resulting in greater visa number use...

I do not anticipate increase in EU quota. Unfortunately I o not see how it supports it. I see the following logic. KCC is afraid they will not be able to fill the quota even by incrementally increasing cutoffs. That is why they do it in rather big chunks to make sure they will reach it and...

40150 for EU would mean visas will be exhausted in August (if they are not exhausted in July)

Only a few dozens of Russians and a few dozens of Ukrainians are banned from getting US visas because of the crisis. Likely none of them was going to apply for a DV visa, they are all public officers of either Russia, Ukraine or Crimea.

For EU? 38700.

An example of non-uniform distribution would be, for instance, if between 4000 and 6000 there are much smaller amount of Nepalese winners than between 11000 and 13000 (both intervals have the same length)

I do not have anything against the situation when Iranian and Nepalese max CNs are different from each other. What I do not like, however, is the situation when Nepalese numbers are distributed non-uniformely between 1 and max Nepalese number. In DV-13 numbers for all special countries had...

I say no if it is really close to 39xxx

Actually, one explanation is still possible. Last year a number of entries in ready status disappeared later. A possible explanation was those entries were without signatures or so. Anyway, illegitimate entries. If we assume out of those 1683 entries we have so far for Nepal quite a few are...

I do not believe into large holes. I think it happens like with other special countries. The distribution is uniform until certain number, and almost zero beyond that. I would rather not trust forum data (about numbers going up to 14K) than believe there could be holes in the middle.

Thanks for appretiating. I could see how Sloner effect could rise my estimates from 10.5K to 11.5K or even maybe to 12K for Nepal. However I would be very reluctant to believe max Nepalese number is higher than that

Moreover, if we assume the number 1683 (the number of forms sent to KCC from Nepal) becomes much larger (when more people from Nepal wwith numbers up to 4325 send forms), the max that I estimate to 10500 could mainly go lower rather than higher, unless the sending rate is going to increase and...

I question the 14K number. How many Nepalese numbers above 10.5K do you know? I assume the forms sending rate is or will be about the same as in DV-13. In DV-13 Nepal had 4370 winners and 3087 forms were sent to KCC (without Sloner effect). That is 70.6% rate. This year we have 6082 nepalese...