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Ok. Fingers crossed.

Why the question about the medical? You can't be issued without the medical. If you can't get the medical and interview within a few days, you might well miss out.

The law says 55K. So it's impossible for me to say how far into the dark they are prepared to go. If at all.

Tonights number is 53397 which we know to be overstated by about 75 (because the embassies misuse CEAC). Already issued AOS cases are on top of that - 700/800 for sure. So we have 800 to 900 left at most. Monday is a holiday, but I expect Tuesday to be when 55K is reached, or breached.

It's worse than the 52623. That number was from a couple of days ago and there were an additional 303 visas in AP (meaning visa being printed). So as of two days ago we were 52926, plus AOS (which I'm assuming is 700 to 800 at this point). Then there were a lot of 221g clearances yesterday...

Honestly, I don't know. I'm 100% certain the cap will be hit, and 99% that would happen on Tuesday or possibly before. Monday is labor day, so actually people down under will have a slightly better chance than others. The OC Tuesday could be ahead of other people's Tuesday. Now, having said...

No, there are none that are close.

Frickin love Suva embassy. They are doing all they can for their applicants. They are right to push hard. We are very close to hitting the cap. I'm pretty much assuming they will exceed the cap at this point but of course I could be wrong about that, and the government could shut down issuing...

Nice - just shows how fast AOS can be sometimes.

FYI to all and to note the timeline. The Algerian embassy has now started cancelling interviews because they have hit the 7% country cap of 3850 visas.

Rejections are for failing to follow the instructions (such as not including spouse/children on the initial entry) or for not meeting the requirements in education (or work experience as an alternative ). Other reasons are less common. Background checking can, in some cases, put a case at...

Visas won't run out in August. September is where the crunchtime will hit - and either they exceed the cap or cancel appointments and/or refuse to allocate visas to 221g

As Mom has already said, there is no possible way that the quota for OC has increased in a way to justify the 77% increase in selectees. The quotas are calculated based on a formula that we know. We have the data and have models of the formula. It hasn't changed. They may have assumed that Fiji...

Thanks, this is helpful. My intent was to see if there was any reason to think the huge percentage of OC applicants would behave differently to other selectees thereby affecting the math for case to issuance numbers. From what you say, it seems I should not expect that.

The passport requirement was only in force for a couple of entry periods, so we can see it didn't cause a reduction when it was introduced, and therefor shouldn't be the reason when it was blocked.

Interesting. I wonder who is paying for the promotion, or what the motivation is. It's lasted two years.

I have been mulling over the massive increase in selectees in OC region. The odd thing that stands out is the massive increase in selectees from Fiji, and I'm wondering what happened to cause that. Up until DV2023, Fiji tended to get around the same (or less) of the selected numbers as...

12XX is clearly safe.

Sooo.... the government screwed OC region by increasing selectees by 77% - far more than any other region (AF12%, AS 15%, EU 25% and SA 55%) This makes no sense at all, and will CERTAINLY lead to cutoffs before high case numbers are reached. We don't know for sure what the "highest" case...

I don't mean to scare, just inform.