Search results

Thank you, Vladek. It almost proves - most likely, I was wrong.

BTW, I closely followed the case of Devyani Khobragade on a forum, dedicated to US India relations. She was an Indan consul in the US, in NY, and was arrested for fraud. She was later released because she was transferred to the UN and acquired diplomatic immunity. When she left, criminal charges...

No, it is very unlikely that you are from Vladivostok. You have very good English, and it looks like you know British life much better than myself. I was in England briefly 3 times, an can assure everybody that you really spent a lot of time in England, based on what you write on the forum. For...

I am not so sure. It could be not Rajiv, it could be Monica Agrawal who implements this plan. He might not even know, but he probably knows. That is not the point who specifically does it. That was a message on unrelated forum - that is why I just made a simple suggestion. The point is different...

You did not say that explicitly. However, you easily "forget" of your previous opinion when DOS's logic is not following it.

Hundreds of professionals and job hunters visit my linked In page weekly, a number of them tries to contact me rather frequently. This is, for instance, what got this week. There are dozens of other invitations weekly. Sorry, not easy to figure out who of them Britsimon is.

Britsimon's strategy is to follow DOS's decisions (in terms of cutoff). He partially supported my early calculations of EU borderline 35K-37K by changing it slightly to 38K-39K. Then he found a good argument that convinced me that is case 55000 visas are issued, the cutoff could really go up to...

I believe that with the cutoff published for SA and EU SA will probably get out of visas in August and EU most likely will get out of visas no late than in August (July possible too). I also think DOS could save it's face by changing August cutoffs be decreasing them in August VB that is due in...

For SA up to 1325 issued 904 visas up to 1550 proportionally - 1057 quota 940 (DV-13) *55/51 = 1013 + ~50 for Guatemala = 1063 So, most likely visas for SA will be exhausted at the very end of August - beginning of September 1550 is probably the final cutoff.

Actually, I need to make a correction, I mentioned that earlier. In September EU will get 2 visas from NA. But I still believe there will be cancellations in August.

Well. Each thing happens first sometimes. In case DOS has wrong planning of cutoffs in VB (what I believe is true for DV-14) that could happen earlier, and I believe it will for EU. Let's see it is going t be verifiable.

Not really the same. I assume the quotas will increase proportionally, to 55000 (only 51080 visas were issud in DV-13)

Only DV-1 and DV-97 had the amount of visas issued more than 55000. I suspect DV-14 is close to that. So, we re talking about #3, not really #20. Also, they forgot the lessons already - it was too long ago.

Well when visa for Iran exhausted in DV-13, the ad on the consular website in Ankara said exactly that - no more visas even after AP or an interview, all interviews cancelled

I will tell you more. If someone waits for AP after an interview, and visas exhaust, and later AP comes up fine, you still do not get visas.

Things like that happened historically. When visas exhaust, interviews are cancelled. Sometimes they still interview a couple of days until they cancel the rest of interviews. In that case people still get no visas, even after a successful interview.

Here it is. We have quotas and visas issued. Quotas for Poland and NA were filled sometime in March. I suspect some interviews in March were cancelled. Quotas were filled and no more visas were issued. For SA it was different. Quota was filled May, some interviews were probably cancelled in May...

We do not know exact qouta, we are not even sure about how many visas nacara returned back. But in dv-14 I expect almost 55000 visas issued, and I base my calculations on that. That is the first year when DOS has enough candidates to get more than 55000 visas - except in dv-95 and in dv -97

look into dv-1 data. Two regions became unavailable - in April and June correspondingly, ans stayed unavailable until August

I do not have direct evidence, but some regions happened to become unavailable BEFORE August. It would normally be logical for some interviews to be cancelled at the same moment when visas become unavailble.