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May 2019 Visa Bulletin

Xarthisius said:
In 2014 they were 10k short (only 40,320 visas issued), in 2015 4.5k short (45,618), so it happens from time to time. Reasons vary. AFAIR one year they didn't randomize the selectees properly and had to redraw.
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Yep 2012 was the redraw and they only achieved 34k issued.

The 2014 and 2015 numbers aren't as low as you said, in fact 2014 (my year) saw 52k issued. To the point you make though, 2016 was pretty low at 46.7k, and yes - it happens from time to time. The difference this year though is that the issuances could be low and people will be left wondering why they never got an interview. Other low issuance years are normally because they selected low.

Stats here:
https://travel.state.gov/content/da...017AnnualReport/FY17AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf
 
Britsimon said:
Yep 2012 was the redraw and they only achieved 34k issued.

The 2014 and 2015 numbers aren't as low as you said, in fact 2014 (my year) saw 52k issued. To the point you make though, 2016 was pretty low at 46.7k, and yes - it happens from time to time. The difference this year though is that the issuances could be low and people will be left wondering why they never got an interview. Other low issuance years are normally because they selected low.

Stats here:
https://travel.state.gov/content/da...017AnnualReport/FY17AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf
Click to expand...
Isnt this year a low selection year too? I thought I remember you saying it was around 87K this year.
 
Britsimon said:
Yep 2012 was the redraw and they only achieved 34k issued.

The 2014 and 2015 numbers aren't as low as you said, in fact 2014 (my year) saw 52k issued. To the point you make though, 2016 was pretty low at 46.7k, and yes - it happens from time to time. The difference this year though is that the issuances could be low and people will be left wondering why they never got an interview. Other low issuance years are normally because they selected low.

Stats here:
https://travel.state.gov/content/da...017AnnualReport/FY17AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf
Click to expand...
oops, I misread column labels. I was looking at https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2014/table6
 
Britsimon said:
Yep - but we would need 5-6k per month from April to September.

BUT - they are not setting up enough interviews to achieve that level.

2NLs for April interviews were about 2700
2NLs for May interviews were about 2700

Neither month is enough interviews to achieve 5k visas, and the AP cases is not at the level that would be needed to make up the difference. So - they are probably going to have issued about 22k visas by the end of May, leaving 25k+ to be issued in the final 4 months. That would require around 4000+ interviews per month, and I am not sure there is "capacity" in the system for that level (embassy & KCC & background checks).

That is why I have been talking about the chaos factor for the last couple of months rather than whether X region will go current or not.

I hope I'll be proved wrong, or that the new procedure is weeding enough bad cases out of the process to allow "capacity" for the good cases.
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3700 interviews - mostly AF region. So - faster, but fast enough?
 
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