DV14 Asia Prediction - Discussion (Using CEAC data)

[raevsky]

I think I could come up with calculations that are more in line with your previous figures, before you made a correction. I just finished them yesterday night and was going to post them anyway. I think I found a way to minimize the influence of Sloner effect.
The idea is I do not take into account Issued or AP or whatever, I take into account only all cases registered with KCC in 2014. Then I apply visas/total rates shown for DV-13. So I come up with the rank numbers where ~3500 visas are going to be reached for Iran and Nepal. Then I estimate how many visas will be issued for the rest of Asia (for Asian quota minus 7000 for 2 countries).
More details will follow.

In 2013 5/27 CEAC data I identify interval from numbers 3500 to 9000 that is not subject to Sloner effect (only low numbers are subject to

it). What I see is
5500 numbers interval (=9000-3500)
2823 entries total from Asia
972 entries from Nepal

348 entries from consulate in UAE
437 entries from consilate in Ankara
862 from Yereval
---
total 989 from Iran and UAE, together (but UAE is extremely low)
862 from the rest of Asia (2823 - 972 - 989)

At the same time, 2117 entries in DV-13 from Iran and UAE total (4350 people) led to ~3600 visas (3374 before Sloner effect)
1645 from nepal, 3087 people, 3147 visas (2688 before Sloner effect)
1694 = 5456-2117-1645 from the rest of Asia, 3293 people, about 2250 visas.

DV-14 CEAC data shows that interval from 1 to 2250 numbers (linear piece, with enough time to include data into CEAC) contains:
1207 entries from Asia,
474 from Nepal,
235 UAE
203 Ankara
80 Yerevan
---------------
518 Iran and UAE total
215 rest of Asia

If we assume that 2258 = 2117*3600/3374 entries from Iran and UAE together poduced 3600 visas in 2013, then (assuming we have 518 entries from Iran and UAE now),
2258/518*2250 = 9808, that would be the rank number for which we would have 2258 entries total from Iran and UAE together, when Iranian visas were exhaused.
Similarly, for Nepal,
1645 * 3147/2688=1925 (total entries from Nepal in DV-13 with Sloner effect) produced about 3150 visas (with Sloner effect).
If we have 474 entries from Nepal now, 1925 entries would be reached at
1925*3500/3147/474*2250 = 10163.

So, Iran (+plus UAE, where UAE is negligible and could be ignored) will be exhaused at about ~9800, Nepal will be exhaused at about ~10160.
Now, for the rest of Asia, we have 215 entries in CEAC so far in the intervial up to 2250.
Last year 1694 tnries produced 2250 visas.
Let's assume that Asian quota will be 9250. Then 7000 will be quota for Nepal and Iran, and the rest 2250 would go to the rest of Asia.
Then 25 entries would produce 2250/1695*215 = 285 visas with the same rate. We need to fill 2250 visas, that would require
2250/285 bunches 2250 long each, 2250/285*2250 = 17800.

So, 1~18000 would be the passing score for the rest of Asia.
However, we do not know the exact quota for Asia.
If it is not 9250 but just 8500, that would be (8500-7000)/285*2250 = 11842 only.
So, small changes in unknowns would lead to very big changes in results for the rest of Asia.

 

[raevsky]

High volatility in unknow value for Asian quota (because of unpredictable nature of unused NACARA values) would mean necessity of high numbers if real AS quota is getting higher. For instance, if Asian quota is up to 10000 (because of unused NACARA), they would really need ~23K of asian numbers to fill the rest of asian quota 3000=10000-7000 with the rate we see (215 rest of asia entries for the first 2250 rank numbers)

 

[Stalin23]

Do you think Case no AS162## is under safe zone?

 

[Kayend]

In 2013 5/27 CEAC data I identify interval from numbers 3500 to 9000 that is not subject to Sloner effect (only low numbers are subject to

it). What I see is
5500 numbers interval (=9000-3500)
2823 entries total from Asia
972 entries from Nepal

348 entries from consulate in UAE
437 entries from consilate in Ankara
862 from Yereval
---
total 989 from Iran and UAE, together (but UAE is extremely low)
862 from the rest of Asia (2823 - 972 - 989)

At the same time, 2117 entries in DV-13 from Iran and UAE total (4350 people) led to ~3600 visas (3374 before Sloner effect)
1645 from nepal, 3087 people, 3147 visas (2688 before Sloner effect)
1694 = 5456-2117-1645 from the rest of Asia, 3293 people, about 2250 visas.

DV-14 CEAC data shows that interval from 1 to 2250 numbers (linear piece, with enough time to include data into CEAC) contains:
1207 entries from Asia,
474 from Nepal,
235 UAE
203 Ankara
80 Yerevan
---------------
518 Iran and UAE total
215 rest of Asia

If we assume that 2258 = 2117*3600/3374 entries from Iran and UAE together poduced 3600 visas in 2013, then (assuming we have 518 entries from Iran and UAE now),
2258/518*2250 = 9808, that would be the rank number for which we would have 2258 entries total from Iran and UAE together, when Iranian visas were exhaused.
Similarly, for Nepal,
1645 * 3147/2688=1925 (total entries from Nepal in DV-13 with Sloner effect) produced about 3150 visas (with Sloner effect).
If we have 474 entries from Nepal now, 1925 entries would be reached at
1925*3500/3147/474*2250 = 10163.

So, Iran (+plus UAE, where UAE is negligible and could be ignored) will be exhaused at about ~9800, Nepal will be exhaused at about ~10160.
Now, for the rest of Asia, we have 215 entries in CEAC so far in the intervial up to 2250.
Last year 1694 tnries produced 2250 visas.
Let's assume that Asian quota will be 9250. Then 7000 will be quota for Nepal and Iran, and the rest 2250 would go to the rest of Asia.
Then 25 entries would produce 2250/1695*215 = 285 visas with the same rate. We need to fill 2250 visas, that would require
2250/285 bunches 2250 long each, 2250/285*2250 = 17800.

So, 1~18000 would be the passing score for the rest of Asia.
However, we do not know the exact quota for Asia.
If it is not 9250 but just 8500, that would be (8500-7000)/285*2250 = 11842 only.
So, small changes in unknowns would lead to very big changes in results for the rest of Asia.

I understand your calculation is based on DV13 pattern but one important thing is that it seems to be the case # distribution changed from 4k and above with Iran expected to dominate the case # from 4k to 9k and Nepal from 9k to 15k. So it will not be 40/40/20 in this case. One more thing is about timing, we would expect Iran to hit their country limit toward the end of fiscal when no one else compete with the visa slots but in DV14 this will not be the case. So with all this changes I don't expect Iran to hit their limit, therefore Rest of Asia will push the case # higher into 20k and above. Nepal will be on his own since they will hit their limit within the fiscal year.

 

[raevsky]

If that is Nepalese or Iranian case (that is unlikely to be a case like that, but still possible), that is outside of safe zone. If that is neither one, I would not be able to say if it is in safe zone or not. Because of unpredictable nature of NACARA unused numbers, it is quite possible that even DOS would not be able to say right now if it is in safe zone or not.

 

[Kayend]

If that is Nepalese or Iranian case (that is unlikely to be a case like that, but still possible), that is outside of safe zone. If that is neither one, I would not be able to say if it is in safe zone or not. Because of unpredictable nature of NACARA unused numbers, it is quite possible that even DOS would not be able to say right now if it is in safe zone or not.

There is Nepalese having case # as high as 22k. So it is possible to have one with 16k.

 

[Kayend]

Btw, I think we can safely assume Asia region quota is in 9k range because Asia did issued 9K+ in the past.

 

[raevsky]

I understand your calculation is based on DV13 pattern but one important thing is that it seems to be the case # distribution changed from 4k and above with Iran expected to dominate the case # from 4k to 9k and Nepal from 9k to 15k. So it will not be 40/40/20 in this case. One more thing is about timing, we would expect Iran to hit their country limit toward the end of fiscal when no one else compete with the visa slots but in DV14 this will not be the case. So with all this changes I don't expect Iran to hit their limit, therefore Rest of Asia will push the case # higher into 20k and above. Nepal will be on his own since they will hit their limit within the fiscal year.

I do not understand why you think that at 4K anything is going to change. Nothing is going to change until at least 9K - the way I see that. Of course when Nepal and Iran areexhaused, the distribution would change, but that does not matter. You could consider all three pieces independently from each other - Iran, Nepal and the rest of Asia. Just split Asia into three pieces and do independent calculations for each one.

Also, all said above by yourself could be applicable to DV-13 where Iran still hit 3500. So in the same way it will hit 3500 in DV-14 (or almost hit it).
Of course, in order to determine the amount of winners for the rest of Asia it is extremely important to determine whether both Iran and Nepal are going to exhaust their visas. I am positive - both countries will hit the limit before the rest of Asia hits regional quota minus 7000. So the rest of Asia is going to have only (asian quota minus 7000) visas, because 7000 visas will be taken by Iran and Nepal.

 

[raevsky]

There is Nepalese having case # as high as 22k. So it is possible to have one with 16k.

It would be very interesting to get more data about that Nepalese. The points I am interested in are:
- whether he was really born in Nepal
- whether he mentioned the country he was going to participate from in the entry as Nepal
- whether his country of his permenent living is Nepal.


I expect numbers that high could appear if he was born in Nepal but was participating from another country (by spouse or parent) or if he was born in Nepal but lives outside of Nepal
Anyway, the amount of people with Nepalese numbers that high is very low - that is what I believe.

 

[raevsky]

Btw, I think we can safely assume Asia region quota is in 9k range because Asia did issued 9K+ in the past.

I agree. But the passing number for the rest of Asia is going to differ very much whether asian quota is 9000 or 9500. 500 in quota difference would lead to 4000 is passing rank number for the rest of Asia - because with numbers that high Iran and Nepal will not produce any meaningful amount of numbers, but the rest of Asia numbers will be still selected with the same pace.

 

[Kayend]

I do not understand why you think that at 4K anything is going to change. Nothing is going to change until at least 9K - the way I see that. Of course when Nepal and Iran areexhaused, the distribution would change, but that does not matter. You could consider all three pieces independently from each other - Iran, Nepal and the rest of Asia. Just split Asia into three pieces and do independent calculations for each one.

Also, all said above by yourself could be applicable to DV-13 where Iran still hit 3500. So in the same way it will hit 3500 in DV-14 (or almost hit it).
Of course, in order to determine the amount of winners for the rest of Asia it is extremely important to determine whether both Iran and Nepal are going to exhaust their visas. I am positive - both countries will hit the limit before the rest of Asia hits regional quota minus 7000. So the rest of Asia is going to have only (asian quota minus 7000) visas, because 7000 visas will be taken by Iran and Nepal.

We can only divide Asia into 3 pieces of calculation with the assumption of no special cut off for Asia because timing will greatly impact the progress of Asia. Nepal I have no doubt that they will hit their country limit but I don't think it will happen for Iran.

 

[raevsky]

We can only divide Asia into 3 pieces of calculation with the assumption of no special cut off for Asia because timing will greatly impact the progress of Asia. Nepal I have no doubt that they will hit their country limit but I don't think it will happen for Iran.

I totally agree that if Iran is not going to hit 3500 limit, we cannot divide Asia into 3 separate slices.
However, I completely disagree on the Iran issue - I am absolutely sure it will hit at least 3400 number, most likely 3500.

You have not answered how you could explain why Iran hit 3500 in DV-13. According to what you are saying, it was not supposed to hit 3500 limit in DV-13, but that happened.

 

[Kayend]

I totally agree that if Iran is not going to hit 3500 limit, we cannot divide Asia into 3 separate slices.
However, I completely disagree on the Iran issue - I am absolutely sure it will hit at least 3400 number, most likely 3500.

You have not answered how you could explain why Iran hit 3500 in DV-13. According to what you are saying, it was not supposed to hit 3500 limit in DV-13, but that happened.

Iran able to hit 3500 in DV13 because it able to clear most of the AP cases in Sept 2013. They can do that because Asia has not much selectees left in Aug and Sept 13. In Dv14, it will not be the case because the rest of Asia selectees might competing with Iran AP cases toward the end of fiscal year. Moreover, I believe the ratio of primary applicant to derivative might be smaller than DV13 since we have much higher case #.

 

[Kayend]

Anyway, look at the DV13 statistics Asia goes up to 9.4k so your calculation of using 9.25k is pretty close.

 

[raevsky]

Iran able to hit 3500 in DV13 because it able to clear most of the AP cases in Sept 2013. They can do that because Asia has not much selectees left in Aug and Sept 13. In Dv14, it will not be the case because the rest of Asia selectees might competing with Iran AP cases toward the end of fiscal year. Moreover, I believe the ratio of primary applicant to derivative might be smaller than DV13 since we have much higher case #.

I disagree on all counts.
1. Iran will not be competing to the rest of Asia because iranian numbers are limited. Also, the way VB will be planned will contain regional limits taking into account statistical expectation of outcome for Iran.
2. As you probably know, Iran got 3741 visas in DV-13, not just 3500.
3. I do not understand why the height of the numbers could change the ratio. I think it will be about the same.

 

[Kayend]

I disagree on all counts.
1. Iran will not be competing to the rest of Asia because iranian numbers are limited. Also, the way VB will be planned will contain regional limits taking into account statistical expectation of outcome for Iran.
2. As you probably know, Iran got 3741 visas in DV-13, not just 3500.
3. I do not understand why the height of the numbers could change the ratio. I think it will be about the same.

All Asian selectees are drawing from the same regional pool. So if AP happened, the visa will be back to the pool. So if rest of Asia get the returned visa slots first then when AP case get clear it might not have any visa slot left for him. Unless my understand on the way they handle AP cases is wrong.

 

[raevsky]

All Asian selectees are drawing from the same regional pool. So if AP happened, the visa will be back to the pool. So if rest of Asia get the returned visa slots first then when AP case get clear it might not have any visa slot left for him. Unless my understand on the way they handle AP cases is wrong.

It might be right. However, I am pretty sure they will figure out a way to ensure low numbers get quota first, before high numbers. In DV-13 Iran was limited by per country quota, not by regional asian quota with which it was possibly competing.

 

[Kayend]

It might be right. However, I am pretty sure they will figure out a way to ensure low numbers get quota first, before high numbers. In DV-13 Iran was limited by per country quota, not by regional asian quota with which it was possibly competing.

Country quota is new to me. Does this quota only exist if it is under special cut off?

 

[Kayend]

I think the rule of lower case # will get their visa first doesn't apply for AP cases because they cannot hold on a visa slots due to uncertainty. So I believe once a case # become AP it no longer follows the rule of lower case # take the visa slot first instead they will go by whichever AP cases get clear first will get the visa slot even the one get cleared has a higher case #.

 

[raevsky]

Country quota is new to me. Does this quota only exist if it is under special cut off?

7% per country limit, like Iran in DV-13. Iran did not have special cutoff, but hit this limit. Some other countries had special cutoff, but did not hit the limit