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I did some calculation based on DV-2013 CEAC Data published by raevsky, to estimate some numbers like max CN interviewed, number of document submitted to kcc and so on.
This is just estimation so don't take it as an optimistic or pessimistic predictions. Here is the link
Click to expand...
Asia DV2014 23100 winners. The maximum number which receive an interview in DV14 will be higher. For example in Europe of 46,000 winners are 60,000 numbers. Such a difference in DV13 not.
 
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Sloner said:
Asia DV2014 23100 winners. The maximum number which receive an interview in DV14 will be higher. For example in Europe of 46,000 winners are 60,000 numbers. Such a difference in DV13 not.
Click to expand...

I'm a bit lost with that but I think Sloner is saying the winners number for Asia looks low - and that is true - it does. Also the Asia columns for max interviewed number and submitted looks odd - but because the 2013 numbers look odd. Might need a tweak.
 
britsimon said:
I'm a bit lost with that but I think Sloner is saying the winners number for Asia looks low - and that is true - it does. Also the Asia columns for max interviewed number and submitted looks odd - but because the 2013 numbers look odd. Might need a tweak.
Click to expand...

You're both certainly right, and taking that in fact will make the estimation more accurate.
 
rafikbo76 said:
Hi,

I did some calculation based on DV-2013 CEAC Data published by raevsky, to estimate some numbers like max CN interviewed, number of document submitted to kcc and so on.
This is just estimation so don't take it as an optimistic or pessimistic predictions. Here is the link

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Agk_blwxh4svdEFENW00cFRuUUJTVGZja3Z4eUU0NEE&usp=sharing

Estimated total issued visa is more than 56000, so cut-off in the end of the year will probably occured unless less winners will submit their document or more visa will be rejected.
Click to expand...
It took me *n hour to write down ur sheet on paper because my phone allows
Only column by column :(
Now one thing I don't get the selected entries in AF 2013 is 53365 but the
Interviwes were 97005 ?
pls help
 
vladek15425 said:
It took me *n hour to write down ur sheet on paper because my phone allows
Only column by column :(
Now one thing I don't get the selected entries in AF 2013 is 53365 but the
Interviwes were 97005 ?
pls help
Click to expand...

The 97k figure is the max case number - which is much higher because of all the holes...
 
vladek15425 said:
It took me *n hour to write down ur sheet on paper because my phone allows
Only column by column :(
Now one thing I don't get the selected entries in AF 2013 is 53365 but the
Interviwes were 97005 ?
pls help
Click to expand...

every case in the 53365 winner has a case number, that number is not sequencial.
Exemple : First winner CN is AF20141 (2014 year, AF region)
Second winner may be AF20145 or 8 or perhaps 12
that's what we called the hole theory.
In fact it seems that they select 97005 and affect sequential number but eliminate some selected entries according to some fraud check they did. And this will cause holes in the numbering.

That's what I understood and may be other people can give more explanation.
 
rafikbo76 said:
every case in the 53365 winner has a case number, that number is not sequencial.
Exemple : First winner CN is AF20141 (2014 year, AF region)
Second winner may be AF20145 or 8 or perhaps 12
that's what we called the hole theory.
In fact it seems that they select 97005 and affect sequential number but eliminate some selected entries according to some fraud check they did. And this will cause holes in the numbering.

That's what I understood and may be other people can give more explanation.
Click to expand...

U are so right I have already discussed the hole theory with simon and he explained it
To me verry nicelly .just that I forgot about it I guess there is holes in my memory as well
Lol
Ur calculation seem verry closer to reality
Thanks a lot
 
rafikbo76 said:
Asia number is now corrected, thanks
Click to expand...

Thanks very much for that. It now shows about 58,000 visas would be needed to satisfy the likely demand (based on the response rate, interview rate and issued/abandoned/denial/admin rate being the same as 2013).

Sloner, before you say a thing - those three things (response rate, interview rate and issued/abandoned/denial/admin rate) have NOTHING to do with the software used to select the winners.

Given that the CP numbers need to fit within the 50k LESS the AOS cases it looks like there will be about 10k too few visas. So - if we wanted to predict the visas issued then we would expect about 20% less than your issued number for each region. Correct?

I would reduce that by a bit because of the CEAC data concern I have explained above - so lets knock everything down by 15%

AF - 20625
EU - 16867
AS - 9739
OC - 939
SA - 1255

Those numbers sound about right to me. They come in just under 50k BUT don't leave a lot of room for AOS, so I suspect these would be about the highest we could possibly see - likely a tad less in some regions.

However, when I do the same exercise on the max case number interviewed column (which does not influence the projections above), it doesn't look right - and I think that goes back to this odd thing about the CEAC data cutting off too soon.
 
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vladek15425 said:
u are so right i have already discussed the hole theory with simon and he explained it
to me verry nicelly .just that i forgot about it i guess there is holes in my memory as well
lol
ur calculation seem verry closer to reality
thanks a lot
Click to expand...


lol!
 
britsimon said:
Thanks very much for that. It now shows about 58,000 visas would be needed to satisfy the likely demand (based on the response rate, interview rate and issued/abandoned/denial/admin rate being the same as 2013).

Sloner, before you say a thing - those three things (response rate, interview rate and issued/abandoned/denial/admin rate) have NOTHING to do with the software used to select the winners.

Given that the CP numbers need to fit within the 50k LESS the AOS cases it looks like there will be about 10k too few visas. So - if we wanted to predict the visas issued then we would expect about 20% less than your issued number for each region. Correct?

I would reduce that by a bit because of the CEAC data concern I have explained above - so lets knock everything down by 15%

AF - 20625
EU - 16867
AS - 9739
OC - 939
SA - 1255

Those numbers sound about right to me. They come in just under 50k BUT don't leave a lot of room for AOS, so I suspect these would be about the highest we could possibly see - likely a tad less in some regions.

However, when I do the same exercise on the max case number interviewed column (which does not influence the projections above), it doesn't look right - and I think that goes back to this odd thing about the CEAC data cutting off too soon.
Click to expand...

I see u took off 15% from all the regions because he didn't include aos . I still think the number of europeen present on the americain sol are way more than the africains ... !?
 
britsimon said:
Thanks very much for that. It now shows about 58,000 visas would be needed to satisfy the likely demand (based on the response rate, interview rate and issued/abandoned/denial/admin rate being the same as 2013).

Sloner, before you say a thing - those three things (response rate, interview rate and issued/abandoned/denial/admin rate) have NOTHING to do with the software used to select the winners.

Given that the CP numbers need to fit within the 50k LESS the AOS cases it looks like there will be about 10k too few visas. So - if we wanted to predict the visas issued then we would expect about 20% less than your issued number for each region. Correct?

I would reduce that by a bit because of the CEAC data concern I have explained above - so lets knock everything down by 15%

AF - 20625
EU - 16867
AS - 9739
OC - 939
SA - 1255

Those numbers sound about right to me. They come in just under 50k BUT don't leave a lot of room for AOS, so I suspect these would be about the highest we could possibly see - likely a tad less in some regions.

However, when I do the same exercise on the max case number interviewed column (which does not influence the projections above), it doesn't look right - and I think that goes back to this odd thing about the CEAC data cutting off too soon.
Click to expand...

Your numbers are more accurate certainly.
I think you sholdn't apply that for max CN interviewed. Because if we do so, we assume that the last 15% of 97005 (Africa exemple) are all AOS cases (from 82454 to 97005) and that will be certainly false.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
britsimon said:
Thanks very much for that. It now shows about 58,000 visas would be needed to satisfy the likely demand (based on the response rate, interview rate and issued/abandoned/denial/admin rate being the same as 2013).

Sloner, before you say a thing - those three things (response rate, interview rate and issued/abandoned/denial/admin rate) have NOTHING to do with the software used to select the winners.

Given that the CP numbers need to fit within the 50k LESS the AOS cases it looks like there will be about 10k too few visas. So - if we wanted to predict the visas issued then we would expect about 20% less than your issued number for each region. Correct?

I would reduce that by a bit because of the CEAC data concern I have explained above - so lets knock everything down by 15%

AF - 20625
EU - 16867
AS - 9739
OC - 939
SA - 1255

Those numbers sound about right to me. They come in just under 50k BUT don't leave a lot of room for AOS, so I suspect these would be about the highest we could possibly see - likely a tad less in some regions.

However, when I do the same exercise on the max case number interviewed column (which does not influence the projections above), it doesn't look right - and I think that goes back to this odd thing about the CEAC data cutting off too soon.
Click to expand...
I think if we know the number of selectees submitted to kcc ,we can predictive if the all region will be current or not,i mean all calculation depending in the documents submitted to kcc.
 
rafikbo76 said:
Your numbers are more accurate certainly.
I think you sholdn't apply that for max CN interviewed. Because if we do so, we assume that the last 15% of 97005 (Africa exemple) are all AOS cases (from 82454 to 97005) and that will be certainly false.
Click to expand...

I agree with simon that u have to consider aos data but I don't thing the number of AOS are equal to each region !
 
vladek15425 said:
I see u took off 15% from all the regions because he didn't include aos . I still think the number of europeen present on the americain sol are way more than the africains ... !?
Click to expand...

No AOS globally is around 5% of cases.

The reason I deducted 15% was because the demand for visas according to Rafokbo76 is around 58,000 (for CP only) whilst the supply is 50,000 (of which AOS is probably around 2500). So - His numbers show an overdemand of about 20%. I've chosen to go a bit under that (to 15%) to show the highest possible numbers of visas that could be allocated - and in the end probably a good split once AOS is added back in.
 
vladek15425 said:
I agree with simon that u have to consider aos data but I don't thing the number of AOS are equal to each region !
Click to expand...

Agree - there is probably a variation of AOS region to region - but since AOS is relatively small part of the overall picture it probably doesn't matter much.
 
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