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CEAC data update

Simon, back in January you predicted a final cutoff of 16XX for OC. In light of the current data, would you revise that prediction? I've done my own prediction (several times), but I'd be interested to see yours.
 
Martin9 said:
Your number was always in the risky range. Having more or less selectees would not make any difference to the cut off number. More selectees, would only have led to more disappointed people, not less chance of getting through. Nigeria would not have had much of an impact on Asia chances either. You can blame Nepal KCC and Iran, but the fact remains that if over 2 Million people from Iran and Nepal apply for the DV, and only 11,000 get selected, then obviously those selected will have the low numbers. The KCC only needs 5000 or so visas a month, and they don't care how that is distributed within the region. It's a lottery, so chance plays the biggest part.So if you are from any part of Asia, you are within the same region. And what's more, one can not rely on the progress of any one year, to determine this year's cut off, particularly since this year has had the major change of introducing DS260 form.
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Hi Martin, I've been enjoying your post and how you provide depth and insight you've provided.

Mind sharing your thought on cut-off and VB progression for Asia?
 
Anxiety2015 said:
I have to agree with Martin, siliconeslinger.

I too wished to have a number below 10K but it didn't happen and what can we do about it? Nothing.
What are you going to do about it? You can make the best out of it or you can feel negative, the choice is yours to make, that you can control.

Regarding fair or not, I used to think similarly, but here what I've figured out.

Imagine we have 1000 cases in total the KCC will see 100 each month for 10 months.

Ok, so let's play "fair" shall we?
In each 100 cases, we have 33 Nepal, 33 Iran and 34 ROA (ok, you caught me, I want ROA to have 1 more since I am like you, from ROA as well), with me so far?
In this case we are "fair" right? (33 Nepal, 33 Iran and 34 ROA )

For easy explanation, each case got a visa shall we? That means in the 1st 100 cases, we have 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA.

Ok, now's there a limit, say......no single country can get more than 100 visa. Nepal and Iran are "single" countries each, ROA is made up of a lot of countries like where we are from. In other words, only Nepal and Iran are subject to this rule.

Think about the following:
1st 100 cases 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA
2nd 100 cases 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA
3rd 100 cases 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA
4th 100 cases 1 visas for Nepal, 1 for Iran and 34 for ROA

Original 4th 100 cases before any removal - 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA, but wait, do we need 33 for Nepal, 33 for Iran? (Remember the rule we set?no single country can get more than 100 visa), only 1 for Nepal and 1 for Iran is needed)

5th 100 cases - do we need any Nepal or Iran? No, they hit the limit, right? And ROA goes on with 34
Original 5th 100 cases before any removal - 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA

In the example above, you can say they keep all the Iran and Nepal in front and that's not fair. But you can also say it's fair since they are removal as they are not necessary in most of the 4th 100 cases and for sure not inthe 5th 100 cases.
KCC could have kept those cases in to show you it's fair, but would that make a difference?

Hope this helps.
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Only in real life the first third 100 cases (first eighth 1000 cases in real life) aren't spread out equally, more like 40 nepal, 40 Iran, 20 ROA. Only after they reach the eighth first 1000 cases in real life will they allow ROA to advance.

1st 100 cases : 40 Iran 40 Nepal 20 roa
And so on until nepal and iran reaches the limit, at which point as has only a month or two of vb to catch up.

In your analogy, the point where nepal and iran cases are no longer needed, roa only has a month left to catch up. So what's the point? Yes yes yes iran and nepal still are limited, but you the the gist of it

Sounds really fair to me indeed!
 
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I don't know why but before 2014 we didn't have this while iran and nepal holding back the cn issue... Even the pace was faster than Africa now.. Something must have happened in 2014 causing the cn to fell dramatically from current to mere 13,350. This year is gonna be even worse for sure, probably 11,000 at best

My predictions

June : 5800
July : 6400
August : 7200 (nepal hits the limit)
September : 11,000
 
ok, and where do you get the 40,40,20?

If you look at the 1st 2000 cases, it's like 55,40,26, have you looked at that?

Now, regarding what you said about not spread evenly, let's think of the following.
If you take my 1000 cases example, let's say they are 1000 balls and we put them in a bag, you draw 100 at the time.
Can you make sure it's even spread everytime? No way if you draw only 1 time.
If you draw millions of times, it might average out and get to even spread, right? But you don't get to a million times, do you?

Further, consider this. There's family members too, can you force someone to have more family member when they get selected to get to even spread? No, you can't force people to have a family or add a kid.
Can you force people to return their DS260 form? No
Can you force people to show up at interview? No
But all we see is the product of a mix of all the above. If you work for KCC, can you get to and show people an even spread? Please answer honestly here....

KCC like any another organization hire analyst and statisticians, not magicians.

Now don't forget, I am from ROA just like you and I am a nunber over 10K just like you.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
ok, and where do you get the 40,40,20?

If you look at the 1st 2000 cases, it's like 55,40,26, have you looked at that?

Now, regarding what you said about not spread evenly, let's think of the following.
If you take my 1000 cases example, let's say they are 1000 balls and we put them in a bag, you draw 100 at the time.
Can you make sure it's even spread everytime? No way if you draw only 1 time.
If you draw millions of times, it might average out and get to even spread, right? But you don't get to a million times, do you?

Further, consider this. There's family members too, can you force someone to have more family member when they get selected to get to even spread? No, you can't force people to have a family or add a kid.
Can you force people to return their DS260 form? No
Can you force people to show up at interview? No
But all we see is the product of a mix of all the above. If you work for KCC, can you get to and show people an even spread? Please answer honestly here....

KCC like any another organization hire analyst and statisticians, not magicians.

Now don't forget, I am from ROA just like you and I am a nunber over 10K just like you.
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Some "expert" on this forum once said that for each 1000 cases, Iran and nepal get 80% and ROA get the remaining 20%. Look it up.

And this special countries problem only happens to asia region. Af has Egypt and Ethiopia and guess what, they're segregated from the African cutoff, problem solved right? why can't they do the same to asia? Go figure. If kcc didn't separate Egypt and Ethiopia from the rest of africa, af would have similar cn to asia

On a separate note, may i know where you're from and your cn more specifically?

I'm from Indonesia and my cn is 13,6xx. Totally hopeless, I shouldn't have even bothered filling out the ds260 form.

if i get selected again in dv16 with a cn below 10,000 I'll donate $500 to a charity
 
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siliconeslinger said:
Some "expert" on this forum once said that for each 1000 cases, Iran and nepal get 80% and ROA get the remaining 20%. Look it up.

And this special countries problem only happens to asia region. Af has Egypt and Ethiopia and guess what, they're segregated from the African cutoff, problem solved right? why can't they do the same to asia? Go figure. If kcc didn't separate Egypt and Ethiopia from the rest of africa, af would have similar cn to asia

On a separate note, may i know where you're from and your cn more specifically?

I'm from Indonesia and my cn is 13,6xx. Totally hopeless, I shouldn't have even bothered filling out the ds260 form.

if i get selected again in dv16 with a cn below 10,000 I'll donate $500 to a charity
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I know who you are referring to and he is talking about 2014, no guarantee 2015 is the same right?
Even if it is for each 1000 Iran and nepal get 80% and ROA get the remaining 20%, that's a full year view, right, when you look 1-1000, it might be different than 1500-2499, right?
That expert published the data and thanks you him and another person who wrote the code, we get to see and play with it right?

Now you are comparing AS to AF and in our world we only care about DV. To tell you the truth, at least I am and you can call me selfish.
The fact it, consulates/embassies do other visas too right?
How many consulates/embassies are there in AF compared to AS?
Are all DV cases of AS changeability will CP in AS consulates/embassies?
Are work load the same in all these consulates/embassies?
Is there a peak season for certain type of visas (student visa for one)?
Are the staffing level the same in all consulates/embassies?
And the list goes on........
Just like almost everyone, we don't know most of these answers.
Without knowing , how can you substantiate it's not fair?

Like I said, what we observe is a product of a mix of a long list of things. The problem?
Well, we don't have the full list of these "things"
And more importantly, we don't know how each of these "things" interact with other "things, right?

AF has 5 "Max out" countries, not 2, plus they don't have the AP problem of Iran, right?
In AF, it's not an even spread too, right?

So doesn't matter which way you look at it, it's can't be an even spread, or you need a magician to get that.
Have you heard of that saying" if it ain't broke, don't fix it"? I doubt that KCC will change their strategies.
 
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Frankly it's no longer "diversity" when the majority of Asian visas are taken up by Nepalese.

Also th law says no one country can take more than 50,000 visas for the past 5 years. I'm sure nepal has hit the limit, about time nepal gets disqualified
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Hi Martin, I've been enjoying your post and how you provide depth and insight you've provided.

Mind sharing your thought on cut-off and VB progression for Asia?
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Thank you. That is very kind of you to say so, but I'm no expert in this area, and others have devoted a lot of time and effort on data analysis and can back up their predictions with numbers. I can't do that with any degree of credibility. On the whole I agree with my fellow Brit, Simon :) . It is unlikely that Asia will go as high as it did last year, and the deciding factor in the final cut off will be the progress of Iranian APs and the recent deal with US may have a bearing on that. However having said that, there are also new factors in this year's process that were not there previously, namely the situation in Yemen and Syria would both make it difficult for the selectees from those countries to attend interviews and would also more likely put them on AP so a limited number will be freed up for others.
 
siliconeslinger said:
Frankly it's no longer "diversity" when the majority of Asian visas are taken up by Nepalese.

Also th law says no one country can take more than 50,000 visas for the past 5 years. I'm sure nepal has hit the limit, about time nepal gets disqualified
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What is diversity? each country has the same number, say 500 each?
Or by proportion of their population of each country?
Or by proportion we need to get to the same proportion in US?

Even if it's the last one, you can't force people to apply , can you?

Regarding you are sure nepal has hit the limit, I am glad that you mentioned 50,000 visas for the past 5 years. That save me from some looking up.
Like you, I enjoying reading these post and listen to you and others (experts included) about what they have to say.
The fact is, I learn from you and others , and for that I thank all of you.

Another fact is, sorry this is going sting, I don't believe EVERY word you said. Now I didn't say every single, I said every.
For those words I don't believe, I owe it to myself to check, learn, ask and judge based on what I can get my hands on.

So back to your statement, "Also th law says no one country can take more than 50,000 visas for the past 5 years. I'm sure nepal has hit the limit, about time nepal gets disqualified"
Please have a look here: http://travel.state.gov/content/dam...014AnnualReport/FY14AnnualReport-TableXIV.pdf
 
Martin9 said:
Thank you. That is very kind of you to say so, but I'm no expert in this area, and others have devoted a lot of time and effort on data analysis and can back up their predictions with numbers. I can't do that with any degree of credibility. On the whole I agree with my fellow Brit, Simon :) . It is unlikely that Asia will go as high as it did last year, and the deciding factor in the final cut off will be the progress of Iranian APs and the recent deal with US may have a bearing on that. However having said that, there are also new factors in this year's process that were not there previously, namely the situation in Yemen and Syria would both make it difficult for the selectees from those countries to attend interviews and would also more likely put them on AP so a limited number will be freed up for others.
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You are very polite sir and of course I am not going to force you for a prediction.

Regarding following the region closely, well I certainly am not too. All I can say is that I am a student of that for my own good, and hopefully in the process be of service to other.
The truth is, I enjoying reading everyone's post since I can learn form all of you one way or the other.
You sir, along with Simon and DV4Roger are my teachers when it comes to AS prediction among other things.
Mom and SussieQQQ are my teachers when it comes to application procedures, and among of many other when it comes to their thought process and observations.

Again, I apologize for singling you out and appreciate your feedback very much.
Feel free to let me know your thought on the AS VB progression if you don't mind, even in private message.
Sorry, I got to ask for my own good and learning.
 
@siliconeslinger,

Your sarcasm about some "expert", some "member" isn't lost on anyone. I fee people like you are the reason it's becoming more and more difficult for humanity to act in a decent manner towards one another, or for strangers to carry out random acts of kindness towards others. When you first joined the forum, you were more than happy for the so called "expert" to give you a break down of the DV process, and I'm willing to bet you devoured everything the "experts" had to say religiously.

You've however become so disillusioned of late by the fear of not making the cut-off, and by the fact that the "experts" wouldn't ascribe to your blaming games you've decided it's okay to sarcastic towards the "experts". I suppose it's the expert's fault you've told your entire family and friends you're moving to the U.S. when you haven't even attended an interview, talk less of being issued with a visa. Counting your chicks before the eggs hatched! Who does that in this time and age when there are so no many unknowns to contend with!!!

It is perfectly okay to not give a hoot as to what the "expert" has said or has to say, but please keep your sarcasm to yourself. You can consider this a friendly warning.
 
There are a lot of people who missed the cut-off like me in this forum, one member i can think of is Sloner, he is sarcastic towards the "experts" and no one seems to have taken it as an insult, i didn't mean to insult the "experts" either.
 
Yes, Sloner's response isn't considered to be sarcastic or insulting because his relationship with the "experts" is unique and go way way back. You don't know nor understand the ramifications surrounding it, so his "sarcasm" can't be compared with yours.
 
Kovalski said:
Who knows, maybe I'm an agent who scams people all over the world:mad::eek:
Lol, don't make me laugh. Your naivety shouts out so loud that It's as if you never actually lived in a corrupt society. You say you're from SouthAfrica, I bet u used to live in a fenced community in one of those rich neighborhoods I saw in the suburbs of Joburg or Centurion or somewhere there. For people who've never been to South Africa, they should FYI there's no difference between those suburbs and suburbs in London for example (which shows how your naivety resembles that of Britsimon on this issue), so o can't blame u for not even knowing what happens in your own country.
Anyway, people are free to do what they want, they can report or not report.
There's a question you may have forgotten to ask yourself: why don't embassies do the work themselves and get rid of scammers and have to rely on the FBI instead? Duh, because if you think an embassy can act by itself, without help from the local police, you obviously don't understand how embassies operate in a sovereign country. Why can't the police in Ukraine help? Oh, wait, they can't, the country is a state of war (after years of corrupt leadership) that required EU mediation to reach a cease-fire.

U should be realistic and see local circumstances for what they are. And until I hear about TANGIBLE results from the FBI investigation, I can't encourage people to waste their time reporting without knowing their country conditions.
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You may think you're scoring points by saying I lived in a security estate. Actually, I didn't. However, my sister in law got her head blown off by an AK47 in a robbery in the jewelry store she worked in. My ex boss got shot dead when his car got hijacked in his driveway. My friend who lives near me now not only saw his mother shot dead in front of him, but also got caught up in the crossfire of a robbery of a cash in transit heist. Why do you think people live behind high walls when they can? The same as living in London, no I don't think so. And in any case, what has any of this got to with the fact of reporting fraud? Seems to me you can't justify your stance so you're trying to deflect something onto me that has nothing to do with it.

If you don't think people should 'waste time' by spending a few minutes composing an email to the fraud lines, don't be surprised that nothing happens. In Moldova they have already implemented steps to bypass the agents, steps that do not need local law enforcement but are designed so people can avoid the blackmail angles of the agents. You know what they say kovalski - if you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem. Have a nice life.
 
siliconeslinger said:
I still remember asking on this forum if i was gonna go current or not, 13,6xx. Some dude said my number is safe due to the Nigeria exclusion plus less selectees than last year (125k vs 140k), last year's final number was 13,350 so a 300 increase isn't too much to ask for, i was initially hopeful for an interview when the first 2 vbs came out, 2500 was way ahead of last year (1800) and then as months went by my hope is lost...

I wish I hadn't been selected for dv2015 at all.. I have already told all my friends and family I'm going to the state next year, what am i gonna say to them?

And all i can do is blame nepal kcc and iran. But some "members" here keep on insisiting that it's fair for one country to stand in the way of us with high cns

Sigj.. I hope the lightning strikes again and i get selected with a cn below 10k
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So that's your issue, you told everyone you were going despite the fact that the letter says selection doesn't guarantee a visa...
 
SusieQQQ said:
You may think you're scoring points by saying I lived in a security estate. Actually, I didn't. However, my sister in law got her head blown off by an AK47 in a robbery in the jewelry store she worked in. My ex boss got shot dead when his car got hijacked in his driveway. My friend who lives near me now not only saw his mother shot dead in front of him, but also got caught up in the crossfire of a robbery of a cash in transit heist. Why do you think people live behind high walls when they can? The same as living in London, no I don't think so. And in any case, what has any of this got to with the fact of reporting fraud? Seems to me you can't justify your stance so you're trying to deflect something onto me that has nothing to do with it.

If you don't think people should 'waste time' by spending a few minutes composing an email to the fraud lines, don't be surprised that nothing happens. In Moldova they have already implemented steps to bypass the agents, steps that do not need local law enforcement but are designed so people can avoid the blackmail angles of the agents. You know what they say kovalski - if you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem. Have a nice life.
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Really South Africa that bad? I thought i had it worst in my country, oh. My. Thank god your American now
 
siliconeslinger said:
Frankly it's no longer "diversity" when the majority of Asian visas are taken up by Nepalese.

Also th law says no one country can take more than 50,000 visas for the past 5 years. I'm sure nepal has hit the limit, about time nepal gets disqualified
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You keep missing a couple of points. The first is that the draw is random and therefore selectees will be roughly in proportion to entry. So if Indonesia had more entrants than Nepal they would have more selectees, would you still be complaining about how unfair it was or would you be satisfied seeing as it is the country you come from?
Secondly, you seem to think diversity means an equal spread of people from all eligible countries. It doesn't.

I undestand that you're angry, disappointed, frustrated, so were a lot of people last year. I'm sorry for you,but quite honestly i can't see that ranting and raving on here does you any good..if anything it seems to make it worse for you because few people seem to be seeing it from your point of view. Maybe you want to think about that, and figure out plan B. Everyone who enters DV should always have plan B?
 
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