CEAC data update

[Anxiety2015]

OK - Take a look on the same table for the global total visas issued. A Tad more than 50K. Now check out Iran in 2013...

What is your CN???

104XX from ROA.....

And it's really amazing to see visa beyond 3500 for a single country. I have long believed 7% is the max.

It seems even (3) below won't apply since it says "the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants "

Unless...they are claiming under a different program....Nicaraguan and Central American Relief Act (NACARA)

Anyway, here's the law :http://www.uscis.gov/iframe/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/act.html

Sec. 202. [8 U.S.C. 1152]

(a) Per Country Level. -

(B) 1/ Nothing in this paragraph shall be construed to limit the authority of the Secretary of State to determine the procedures for the processing of immigrant visa applications or the locations where such applications will be processed.

(2) Per country levels for family-sponsored and employment-based immigrants. - Subject to 1a/ paragraphs (3), (4), and (5) the total number of immigrant visas made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area under subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 in any fiscal year may not exceed 7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) or 2 percent (in the case of a dependent area) of the total number of such visas made available under such subsections in that fiscal year.


(3) Exception if additional visas available. - If because of the application of paragraph (2) with respect to one or more foreign states or dependent areas, the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who otherwise may be issued such a visa, paragraph (2) shall not apply to visas made available to such states or areas during the remainder of such calendar quarter.

 

[Anxiety2015]

I think you were told to stop worrying back in JULY 2014!

Not me, I have never given any opinion on Asian numbers as far as I can recall...?

The camp just keeps growing..
That, on top of the fact that Asia is an amazing region, tells us that we should start ROA thread.

We should start a bloody silly camp for Asia, lol
FSW and I are in the bloody silly camp, and you,Mom,Susie and many others are in the chilling in the US camp......mind if we join? lol
Simon, yes, it's back in July 2014......and I started collecting documents to build a solid case after reading all the twist and turns people post here.
The amazing part, some of the document I requested last year turns up in my mail box 2 weeks ago! Yes it took 8 months!

 

[Anxiety2015]

Not me, I have never given any opinion on Asian numbers as far as I can recall...?

Yes you did, but it's from another forum and I appreciate it.
It was about obtaining a police cert from a foreign state, and I am glad that advise from you, Simon and Mom works out great for me.
Let me add the twist and turn involved in getting some of the document is mind boggling and I suspect FSW and I will stop worrying once we have the visas are in the passport and in our hands.

Here's your reply: "
Posted 28 July 2014 - 11:06 PM

The time from notification to interview is exactly enough time to process in fact and worst case you end up on AP for a week or two. Unless your interview is in the last week of September you are worrying yourself silly over nothing. "

 

[Anxiety2015]

I really hope so, but since this is KCC, it's highly unlikely.

104XX from ROA.....

And it's really amazing to see visa beyond 3500 for a single country. I have long believed 7% is the max.

It seems even (3) below won't apply since it says "the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants "

Unless...they are claiming under a different program....Nicaraguan and Central American Relief Act (NACARA)

Anyway, here's the law :http://www.uscis.gov/iframe/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/act.html

Sec. 202. [8 U.S.C. 1152]

(a) Per Country Level. -

(B) 1/ Nothing in this paragraph shall be construed to limit the authority of the Secretary of State to determine the procedures for the processing of immigrant visa applications or the locations where such applications will be processed.

(2) Per country levels for family-sponsored and employment-based immigrants. - Subject to 1a/ paragraphs (3), (4), and (5) the total number of immigrant visas made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area under subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 in any fiscal year may not exceed 7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) or 2 percent (in the case of a dependent area) of the total number of such visas made available under such subsections in that fiscal year.


(3) Exception if additional visas available. - If because of the application of paragraph (2) with respect to one or more foreign states or dependent areas, the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who otherwise may be issued such a visa, paragraph (2) shall not apply to visas made available to such states or areas during the remainder of such calendar quarter.

I think you are 9xxx from Syria and if I am lucky, we will be called together in Aug.
Regarding July, well, never say never. Just look that how they get over 3500 visas for 1 country on 2 counts...

 

[NaraLB]

I think you are 9xxx from Syria and if I am lucky, we will be called together in Aug.
Regarding July, well, never say never. Just look that how they get over 3500 visas for 1 country on 2 counts...

Yes that's right! My CN is in the high 9000's, almost 10,000. I'm keeping my hope for an August interview

 

[Anxiety2015]

Yes - they will interview Iranian cases to the end because not all will go on AP.

The big jump can only happen when Nepal is limited. So, whilst that could happen in July, I suspect it will be in August.

The way to calculate this all is to take Nepal and Iran out of the mix.

Nepal gets 3500 and let's assume Iran takes 2500 - which I think is the MAX they could take. That leaves 2500 for ROA.

Up to now, ROA have taken 489 visas and have 121 on AP. So - let's say the will have got 580 from 4300. That would mean they are getting 134 per thousand. That is very low - but could be right. Let's assume they have been badly affected by the DS260 backlog so they will mature to 150/160 per thousand. That means CN of 15XXX! So - even 200 per thousand for ROA would not be terrible.

Again - all hinging on Iran...

Let me see if I understand your calculation.

If we look at the 1st 4300 case in 2015, we have 4057 cases, of which 536 are ROA, 851 Iran and 1181 Nepal (guessed based on consulate of course).

Let's take your matured back log number of 150/160/200 per thousand. This is correct up to CN 9000 with 1350/1440/1800 visa issued.Based on a 2500 visa quota, there's 1150/1060/700 left. If the quota is 2000, there's 650/560/200 left.

Beyond 9000, it's about 300 cases per 1000CN range, (296,322,294,303,305,317, from 10000-15000 to be precise). If we use the same ratio on 296 cases from 9000-10000, it will yield 356/380/475 visas from 150/160/200(*4.3/536)

For 2500 visa quota, with 1150/1060/700 left, it will stop at 13534,13163,11797 at 150/160/200 per thousand.
For 2000 visa quota, with 650/560/200 left, it will stop at 11597,11199,9776 at 150/160/200 per thousand.

Now this may seems very scary, and I must point out I am assuming 100% response rate from CN 9000 onwards. We see a 63% response rate so far and that's with Nepal and Iran in the max.So i would consider the above calculation to be a worst case
scenario.

At 80% response rate:
For 2500 visa quota, with 1150/1060/700 left, it will stop at 14xxx,125xx,119xx at 150/160/200 per thousand.
For 2000 visa quota, with 650/560/200 left, it will stop at 120xx,107xx,10xxx at 150/160/200 per thousand.

 

[Anxiety2015]

My apologies guys as I've used the incorrect CN to issued ratio.

Here's the revised numbers:

For 2500 visa quota, with 1150/1060/700 left, it will stop at 12152,11745,10438 at 150/160/200 per thousand.
We will need 1383/1360/1123 cases to fill 1150/1060/700 visas.

For 2000 visa quota, with 650/560/200 left, it will stop at 10767,10438,9358 at 150/160/200 per thousand.We will need 782/718/320 cases to fill 650/560/200 visas.

So how do I arrive at those numbers? Let's take 150 per thousand for example.
We have 536 ROA case in the 1st 4300 CN Range, 150 per thousand *4.3/536 = 1.203358 visa per 1 case
Between 9000-10000, we have 296 cases, so we can expect 296*1.203358 visa per 1 case = 356.194 visas
Let's say ROA will take 2500 visa in total, after 9000, we have 2500-(150*9) = 1150
So the question is how many cases do we need to get 1150 visas?
It's 1150/1.203358 visa per 1 case = 955.6589 cases.
If we go to the ceac data on Jan 1, the 955th case after 9000 is CN 12152.

We are assuming every case will respond, which is not true, so you can expect at 80% response rate, the CN will be higher, and even higher for 60% response rate.

 

[NaraLB]

My apologies guys as I've used the incorrect CN to issued ratio.

Here's the revised numbers:

For 2500 visa quota, with 1150/1060/700 left, it will stop at 12152,11745,10438 at 150/160/200 per thousand.
We will need 1383/1360/1123 cases to fill 1150/1060/700 visas.

For 2000 visa quota, with 650/560/200 left, it will stop at 10767,10438,9358 at 150/160/200 per thousand.We will need 782/718/320 cases to fill 650/560/200 visas.

So how do I arrive at those numbers? Let's take 150 per thousand for example.
We have 536 ROA case in the 1st 4300 CN Range, 150 per thousand *4.3/536 = 1.203358 visa per 1 case
Between 9000-10000, we have 296 cases, so we can expect 296*1.203358 visa per 1 case = 356.194 visas
Let's say ROA will take 2500 visa in total, after 9000, we have 2500-(150*9) = 1150
So the question is how many cases do we need to get 1150 visas?
It's 1150/1.203358 visa per 1 case = 955.6589 cases.
If we go to the ceac data on Jan 1, the 955th case after 9000 is CN 12152.

We are assuming every case will respond, which is not true, so you can expect at 80% response rate, the CN will be higher, and even higher for 60% response rate.

I'm sorry, just to recap, the barrier of math is standing between us , basically what you mean is: in worst case scenario Asia's final cutoff will be 12152, assuming that ROA is left with 2500 visas and that it could be higher if the response rate is lower?

 

[Britsimon]

Thanks for clarifying, I have two questions that just crossed my mind:

1. When KCC has to determine the last couple of VBs, do they take into account that a certain percentage of Iranian applicants will go to AP, so as to allow more interviews for ROA?
2. Do we know anything about the density of ROA, compared to that of last year? I'm trying to estimate how much of a jump we can see after Nepal is limited.

1. I don't know how they will handle that - that is a good question.
2. Well remember we are talking about density - which is cases per thousand (not selectees), but the ROA density will be slightly higher in 2015 (32% versus 27%). So - jumps of 3000+ would not be impossible once Nepal is out.


By the way - each case scheduled for interview has a visa pre-allocated. Once that case goes past the month end (no show, refusal and AP) those visas are re-allocated to the pool. Often people that complete AP very late in the year are told to wait to see if a visa becomes available for them- so I think the visas that would be returned to the pool are re-allocated at the embassy level primarily. There might be some re-allocation controlled by KCC at that point, but not too much. This is why one of our regulars had such a close call in China last year because he was waiting for a visa from August 4 and the embassy probably had none so he had to wait until September.

 

[Britsimon]

104XX from ROA.....

And it's really amazing to see visa beyond 3500 for a single country. I have long believed 7% is the max.

It seems even (3) below won't apply since it says "the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants "

Unless...they are claiming under a different program....Nicaraguan and Central American Relief Act (NACARA)

Anyway, here's the law :http://www.uscis.gov/iframe/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/act.html

Sec. 202. [8 U.S.C. 1152]

(a) Per Country Level. -

(B) 1/ Nothing in this paragraph shall be construed to limit the authority of the Secretary of State to determine the procedures for the processing of immigrant visa applications or the locations where such applications will be processed.

(2) Per country levels for family-sponsored and employment-based immigrants. - Subject to 1a/ paragraphs (3), (4), and (5) the total number of immigrant visas made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area under subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 in any fiscal year may not exceed 7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) or 2 percent (in the case of a dependent area) of the total number of such visas made available under such subsections in that fiscal year.


(3) Exception if additional visas available. - If because of the application of paragraph (2) with respect to one or more foreign states or dependent areas, the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who otherwise may be issued such a visa, paragraph (2) shall not apply to visas made available to such states or areas during the remainder of such calendar quarter.

Don't forget - I also pointed out the Global numbers are allowed to go higher than 50K - reclaiming some of the Nacara visas. A precise on the dime stop would be pretty hard to enforce anyway. What do you do when you are giving out the 3500th visa to a woman who is 8.9 months pregnant. The baby is gonna screw up your math before the Mom enters.

I think 2013 might have been a (3) exception - and if you look there have been other such exceptions.

 

[Britsimon]

My apologies guys as I've used the incorrect CN to issued ratio.

Here's the revised numbers:

For 2500 visa quota, with 1150/1060/700 left, it will stop at 12152,11745,10438 at 150/160/200 per thousand.
We will need 1383/1360/1123 cases to fill 1150/1060/700 visas.

For 2000 visa quota, with 650/560/200 left, it will stop at 10767,10438,9358 at 150/160/200 per thousand.We will need 782/718/320 cases to fill 650/560/200 visas.

So how do I arrive at those numbers? Let's take 150 per thousand for example.
We have 536 ROA case in the 1st 4300 CN Range, 150 per thousand *4.3/536 = 1.203358 visa per 1 case
Between 9000-10000, we have 296 cases, so we can expect 296*1.203358 visa per 1 case = 356.194 visas
Let's say ROA will take 2500 visa in total, after 9000, we have 2500-(150*9) = 1150
So the question is how many cases do we need to get 1150 visas?
It's 1150/1.203358 visa per 1 case = 955.6589 cases.
If we go to the ceac data on Jan 1, the 955th case after 9000 is CN 12152.

We are assuming every case will respond, which is not true, so you can expect at 80% response rate, the CN will be higher, and even higher for 60% response rate.

Yep that is somewhat similar to what I have done. My guess is 12500 to 13000 is pretty comfortable - and there is even some chance for the cases over 13k although I don't want to be too bold about that...

Now - again... Iran is the key.

 

[SusieQQQ]

Hahaha @SusieQQQ I wouldn't be surprised if at some point we hear that very few people (if any at all) actually contacted the FBI to provide information and contribute to the investigation, BUT I commend the government's efforts in dealing with scammers.
You still haven't understood what I said about reporting, AGAIN here is my opinion: people can report or not report its up to them, but if somebody reports, they shouldn't expect too much from the embassy (I think reporting for the sake of just reporting-without the report resulting in action from the embassy-is not very productive).
As for that happening in my country or many other countries (just because embassies in 3 other countries are stepping up their efforts), I think we'll wait a very very long time. I'm not a pessimistic person, I'm just a very realistic person, and I know that embassies only take action when problems blow out of proportion.

I'm continually amazed at your continual advice to people to keep quiet about being scammed. I know you yada yada about 'your country' but I can guarantee you that those other investigations and actions were sparked by complaints. If I didn't know better I'd think you had a vested interest in people keeping quiet.

 

[Britsimon]

I'm continually amazed at your continual advice to people to keep quiet about being scammed. I know you yada yada about 'your country' but I can guarantee you that those other investigations and actions were sparked by complaints. If I didn't know better I'd think you had a vested interest in people keeping quiet.

I feel the same way about people watching other forms of corruption Susie - but I was told I was being naive.

Things don't get better until people start speaking out.

 

[SusieQQQ]

Yes you did, but it's from another forum and I appreciate it.
It was about obtaining a police cert from a foreign state, and I am glad that advise from you, Simon and Mom works out great for me.
Let me add the twist and turn involved in getting some of the document is mind boggling and I suspect FSW and I will stop worrying once we have the visas are in the passport and in our hands.

Here's your reply: "
Posted 28 July 2014 - 11:06 PM

The time from notification to interview is exactly enough time to process in fact and worst case you end up on AP for a week or two. Unless your interview is in the last week of September you are worrying yourself silly over nothing. "

Um, from what you quoted there that was not an opinion on whether your number would be current, but on whether KCC gives you enough time to do stuff between the 2nl and the interview. Unless the number is really low I do not give opinions on AS or EU numbers, as AF are the only ones I have ever looked at closely.

 

[SusieQQQ]

I feel the same way about people watching other forms of corruption Susie - but I was told I was being naive.

Things don't get better until people start speaking out.

You've actually hit the nail on the head there. Clearly Kovalski is so used to corrupt cops/politicians not caring, that it hasn't occurred to him that the people at the US embasssy will have a completely different mindset.

 

[FSW2015]

1. I don't know how they will handle that - that is a good question.
2. Well remember we are talking about density - which is cases per thousand (not selectees), but the ROA density will be slightly higher in 2015 (32% versus 27%). So - jumps of 3000+ would not be impossible once Nepal is out.


By the way - each case scheduled for interview has a visa pre-allocated. Once that case goes past the month end (no show, refusal and AP) those visas are re-allocated to the pool. Often people that complete AP very late in the year are told to wait to see if a visa becomes available for them- so I think the visas that would be returned to the pool are re-allocated at the embassy level primarily. There might be some re-allocation controlled by KCC at that point, but not too much. This is why one of our regulars had such a close call in China last year because he was waiting for a visa from August 4 and the embassy probably had none so he had to wait until September.

Does this also apply to September interviews? In other words, which has the priority: cases undergoing interviews throughout September or cleared AP's. Maybe I'm thinking a bit ahead of things, but if my interview is in September, I might ask for a reschedule (if possible) until the second week of the month in order to try to accommodate my exam (which is on the 1st and 3rd). Would that be too risky?

 

[SusieQQQ]

Does this also apply to September interviews? In other words, which has the priority: cases undergoing interviews throughout September or cleared AP's. Maybe I'm thinking a bit ahead of things, but if my interview is in September, I might ask for a reschedule (if possible) until the second week of the month in order to try to accommodate my exam (which is on the 1st and 3rd). Would that be too risky?

Unless you are interviewing at a very small and flexible embassy (like Lithuania) chances of a successful reschedule in September are probably very low.

 

[Britsimon]

Does this also apply to September interviews? In other words, which has the priority: cases undergoing interviews throughout September or cleared AP's. Maybe I'm thinking a bit ahead of things, but if my interview is in September, I might ask for a reschedule (if possible) until the second week of the month in order to try to accommodate my exam (which is on the 1st and 3rd). Would that be too risky?

Asking for a reschedule would be a very silly risk.

The priority is cases scheduled for the first time - so AP cases clearing from previous months get the scraps.

 

[Britsimon]

Just when you thought Anxiety2015 was going to have to request a forum name change....

http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv-2015-ap-related-cases.324748/page-4#post-2391976

 

[FSW2015]

Unless you are interviewing at a very small and flexible embassy (like Lithuania) chances of a successful reschedule in September are probably very low.

Asking for a reschedule would be a very silly risk.

The priority is cases scheduled for the first time - so AP cases clearing from previous months get the scraps.

Thank you both, I guess I'll have to wait and see how this will play out..