How many of you really want India to be divided into North and South?
http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/printedition/290503/detIDE01.shtml
Fortress South India
Bhaskar Ghose
The formation of the Southern Economic Union, barely noticed in most journals and newspapers, has been the subject of some comment, which looks on it essentially as an agent for cooperation and coordination and, in a very mild way, a banding together against the imperial attitudes of New Delhi’s bureaucracy, a sort of defence against being trodden underfoot.
Whatever else it is, analysts agree, it is certainly not a step towards secession. In fact, most people would dismiss that as an assumption that’s not only fanciful, but quite amusing. Secession is what they try to do in the Northeast. All that the chief secretaries of the southern states are doing is setting up a mechanism for greater coordination in developing the infrastructure and the economy of the region as a whole, that’s all.
Yes, that is indeed all. But only for the time being. Two things need to be considered seriously by the rulers of the country and opinion formers. First, the region covered by this union will not necessarily stay the way it is. Goa and Maharashtra may well join it, as the years pass. Second, the reasons behind the formation of this union are not going to remain only the need for greater regional coordination, or the condescending attitude of New Delhi, or even the manner in which the politics of the country seem to centre round UP, Bihar and occasionally Haryana.
This is not merely a prophecy made like Tiresias, the old, blind prophet, who “perceived the scene and foretold the rest”. It’s based on indicators that no one can miss unless one’s totally lost it. Look at the population growth. The total fertility rate in Kerala is 1.7, in Karnataka 2.9, in Tamil Nadu 2.1 and in Andhra Pradesh 2.7. All of them have fallen below the national average and the trend in all these states is downward. As it is in Goa (1.9) and Maharashtra (2.9). On the other hand, the rate in Uttar Pradesh is 5.2, in Bihar 4.6, in Madhya Pradesh 4.2 and in Rajasthan 4.5.
What this means is that the population in the southern states will stabilise more quickly than in the others (which may not stabilise for many decades to come). In other words, the already vast numbers in the northern states will become even greater and the smaller population in the southern states will actually become, relative to the northern states, even smaller. Translate that into parliamentary seats and you can see that there will be even more MPs from the northern states than there are now.
Put this against the survey done recently by a leading news magazine of the ranking of different states and it will become clear that the larger states with the larger number of MPs in Parliament are, in fact, the poorest of the lot in every sense — financially, educationally, in terms of health and nutrition and virtually everything else. So political power will inevitably be wielded by more MPs from these impoverished northern states and the states with relatively smaller numbers will have less of a say in policy matters although they will be — and, indeed are, generally speaking — more prosperous.
This is not a perception that will be confined to the very shrewd, or to the likes of Tiresias the prophet. It will become generally known that there will be jobs and the prospect of affluence in the south, and nothing but hunger, poverty, chaos and violence in the north. And again, it doesn’t need a Tiresias to foretell what will happen, to foresee trainloads of impoverished people swarming into the southern states for employment, as they once did (and still do) into Mumbai. But there is a point that’s being rapidly reached in Mumbai when it simply will not be able to take any more, and that perception will, again, become general. “There’s nothing in Mumbai any more, bhai, so onwards to Bangalore, and Chennai and Hyderabad.”
You may well ask why I have not mentioned Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat, which are considered prosperous states. Well, Punjab is relatively small and is hemmed in by some of the poorest states whose overflowing populations will no doubt seek employment and prosperity in that state; Haryana is really in the list because it adjoins Delhi and Delhi is bursting at the seams. Here, too, as it dawns on the impoverished that there are relatively more lucrative sources of earning money in the south, the movement southwards will begin and there is little reason to doubt that the authorities in Delhi will do all that they can to speed them on their way. Gujarat is prosperous in the way Nazi Germany was prosperous and, like its predecessor, will not look kindly on immigrants even from within the country. They will be dealt with as only Narendra Modi and his cohorts know how to, and any influx into that state will stop, quite abruptly and totally.
But Goa and Maharashtra, now. The picture here’s not quite the same. Here the population growth rates are very low (Goa) or moderately low (Maharashtra). Investment is increasing, the infrastructure improving, there are two major ports in the states and they are very well connected to the southern states, a connection that will become even better when the golden quadrilateral is completed. They will face an influx that will go beyond the influx into Mumbai, and spread across the industrial belt coming up between Mumbai and Pune, and elsewhere in the state, and to the emerging industrial complexes in Goa.
Given the nature of politics, then, given the demographic picture that will unfold over the decades, inevitably Goa and Maharashtra will link up with the Southern Economic Union. And it will not be only for coordination in the development of the infrastructure of the region; it will also be to devise means to stave off what they will most certainly see as a potentially explosive development.
If political power stays — as it will obviously do — in the hands of the likes of Mayawati and Laloo Yadav, and as they take the teeming millions in their states further down into the morass of pauperisation and violence, the relatively affluent states will have to take some defensive action, because they will know only too well that it would take just a handful of demagogues in each southern state to set off a conflagration that would consume the whole country and, perhaps, do what appears so fanciful today — redefine India.
Geoffrey Moorhouse concludes his book Calcutta (written many years ago, true, but not less valid for that) with a chilling vision of the frightened seths of Kolkata cowering in their grand bungalows in Alipore and Camac Street, while all around them thousands and thousands of rickshaw-pullers converge, their bells sounding against the handles of their rickshaws, tinkling and tinkling, like a death knell. This vision comes vividly to mind as one sees in the not too distant future a kind of reverse of this happening across the country, as the more prosperous, less populated states turn on the hordes of the unemployed streaming in.
What the establishment of the Southern Economic Union is bringing in is a defensive mechanism against the uncontrollable population growth and attendant impoverishment in the cow belt, not so much to create divisions, but to do the opposite — keep the country, such as it is, together.
It may appear a harmless official committee today, but then that was how the Indian National Congress began, as a meeting of genteel, civilised people who made erudite, if noble, speeches. It didn’t take long for that to change, for the hats, and three-piece suits to be cast away. Nothing in public life can be surprising any more. We know that to our cost.
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2003/20030601/nation.htm#1
http://www.blonnet.com/2003/05/22/stories/2003052202241700.htm
I do know this forum is not the place for this discussion. But, it is Friday! It is easy for people on this forum rile up against each other based on North / South / Hindi / Tamil. But, in reality, if a split occurs, it would be doomsday for India as I feel it will go the way of the ex-USSR.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/printedition/290503/detIDE01.shtml
Fortress South India
Bhaskar Ghose
The formation of the Southern Economic Union, barely noticed in most journals and newspapers, has been the subject of some comment, which looks on it essentially as an agent for cooperation and coordination and, in a very mild way, a banding together against the imperial attitudes of New Delhi’s bureaucracy, a sort of defence against being trodden underfoot.
Whatever else it is, analysts agree, it is certainly not a step towards secession. In fact, most people would dismiss that as an assumption that’s not only fanciful, but quite amusing. Secession is what they try to do in the Northeast. All that the chief secretaries of the southern states are doing is setting up a mechanism for greater coordination in developing the infrastructure and the economy of the region as a whole, that’s all.
Yes, that is indeed all. But only for the time being. Two things need to be considered seriously by the rulers of the country and opinion formers. First, the region covered by this union will not necessarily stay the way it is. Goa and Maharashtra may well join it, as the years pass. Second, the reasons behind the formation of this union are not going to remain only the need for greater regional coordination, or the condescending attitude of New Delhi, or even the manner in which the politics of the country seem to centre round UP, Bihar and occasionally Haryana.
This is not merely a prophecy made like Tiresias, the old, blind prophet, who “perceived the scene and foretold the rest”. It’s based on indicators that no one can miss unless one’s totally lost it. Look at the population growth. The total fertility rate in Kerala is 1.7, in Karnataka 2.9, in Tamil Nadu 2.1 and in Andhra Pradesh 2.7. All of them have fallen below the national average and the trend in all these states is downward. As it is in Goa (1.9) and Maharashtra (2.9). On the other hand, the rate in Uttar Pradesh is 5.2, in Bihar 4.6, in Madhya Pradesh 4.2 and in Rajasthan 4.5.
What this means is that the population in the southern states will stabilise more quickly than in the others (which may not stabilise for many decades to come). In other words, the already vast numbers in the northern states will become even greater and the smaller population in the southern states will actually become, relative to the northern states, even smaller. Translate that into parliamentary seats and you can see that there will be even more MPs from the northern states than there are now.
Put this against the survey done recently by a leading news magazine of the ranking of different states and it will become clear that the larger states with the larger number of MPs in Parliament are, in fact, the poorest of the lot in every sense — financially, educationally, in terms of health and nutrition and virtually everything else. So political power will inevitably be wielded by more MPs from these impoverished northern states and the states with relatively smaller numbers will have less of a say in policy matters although they will be — and, indeed are, generally speaking — more prosperous.
This is not a perception that will be confined to the very shrewd, or to the likes of Tiresias the prophet. It will become generally known that there will be jobs and the prospect of affluence in the south, and nothing but hunger, poverty, chaos and violence in the north. And again, it doesn’t need a Tiresias to foretell what will happen, to foresee trainloads of impoverished people swarming into the southern states for employment, as they once did (and still do) into Mumbai. But there is a point that’s being rapidly reached in Mumbai when it simply will not be able to take any more, and that perception will, again, become general. “There’s nothing in Mumbai any more, bhai, so onwards to Bangalore, and Chennai and Hyderabad.”
You may well ask why I have not mentioned Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat, which are considered prosperous states. Well, Punjab is relatively small and is hemmed in by some of the poorest states whose overflowing populations will no doubt seek employment and prosperity in that state; Haryana is really in the list because it adjoins Delhi and Delhi is bursting at the seams. Here, too, as it dawns on the impoverished that there are relatively more lucrative sources of earning money in the south, the movement southwards will begin and there is little reason to doubt that the authorities in Delhi will do all that they can to speed them on their way. Gujarat is prosperous in the way Nazi Germany was prosperous and, like its predecessor, will not look kindly on immigrants even from within the country. They will be dealt with as only Narendra Modi and his cohorts know how to, and any influx into that state will stop, quite abruptly and totally.
But Goa and Maharashtra, now. The picture here’s not quite the same. Here the population growth rates are very low (Goa) or moderately low (Maharashtra). Investment is increasing, the infrastructure improving, there are two major ports in the states and they are very well connected to the southern states, a connection that will become even better when the golden quadrilateral is completed. They will face an influx that will go beyond the influx into Mumbai, and spread across the industrial belt coming up between Mumbai and Pune, and elsewhere in the state, and to the emerging industrial complexes in Goa.
Given the nature of politics, then, given the demographic picture that will unfold over the decades, inevitably Goa and Maharashtra will link up with the Southern Economic Union. And it will not be only for coordination in the development of the infrastructure of the region; it will also be to devise means to stave off what they will most certainly see as a potentially explosive development.
If political power stays — as it will obviously do — in the hands of the likes of Mayawati and Laloo Yadav, and as they take the teeming millions in their states further down into the morass of pauperisation and violence, the relatively affluent states will have to take some defensive action, because they will know only too well that it would take just a handful of demagogues in each southern state to set off a conflagration that would consume the whole country and, perhaps, do what appears so fanciful today — redefine India.
Geoffrey Moorhouse concludes his book Calcutta (written many years ago, true, but not less valid for that) with a chilling vision of the frightened seths of Kolkata cowering in their grand bungalows in Alipore and Camac Street, while all around them thousands and thousands of rickshaw-pullers converge, their bells sounding against the handles of their rickshaws, tinkling and tinkling, like a death knell. This vision comes vividly to mind as one sees in the not too distant future a kind of reverse of this happening across the country, as the more prosperous, less populated states turn on the hordes of the unemployed streaming in.
What the establishment of the Southern Economic Union is bringing in is a defensive mechanism against the uncontrollable population growth and attendant impoverishment in the cow belt, not so much to create divisions, but to do the opposite — keep the country, such as it is, together.
It may appear a harmless official committee today, but then that was how the Indian National Congress began, as a meeting of genteel, civilised people who made erudite, if noble, speeches. It didn’t take long for that to change, for the hats, and three-piece suits to be cast away. Nothing in public life can be surprising any more. We know that to our cost.
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2003/20030601/nation.htm#1
http://www.blonnet.com/2003/05/22/stories/2003052202241700.htm
I do know this forum is not the place for this discussion. But, it is Friday! It is easy for people on this forum rile up against each other based on North / South / Hindi / Tamil. But, in reality, if a split occurs, it would be doomsday for India as I feel it will go the way of the ex-USSR.
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