Why Retrogression? To reduce backlogs and processing times

D

Dallas03096

Registered Users (C)
According to CIS Ombudsman's report to Congress in June 2006:
In April 2006, USCIS estimated the number of pending employment-based green cards to be between 170,975 and 229,291. USCIS further estimated that it will complete 136,254 employment-based applications in FY'06. ---
Thus it remains the case that USCIS - based on its own estimates - cannot end a fiscal year without cases pending visa allocation. This, in effect, creates a perpetual backlog of green card cases.

The DOL labor certification application backlog also represents a potential problem. If DOL approves large number of these labor certification applications - some of which date back to early 2001 - in a relatively short period of time, the number of employment-based visa petitions and applications for green cards would surge. ---
Without an effective way to regulate this expected workload surge,--- USCIS will be unable to reduce its processing times or application backlog.

Now look at "the efficient process developed to systematically move applications into and through USCIS": Retrogression

Look at the results of retrogression(from USCIS monthly statistics):
Backlogs (FB+EB) reduced from 863,185 in Nov-05 to 673,864 in May-06:

I-485 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06
Pending 863,185 843,088 813,270 776,285 728,415 70 6,629 673,864
Receipts 42,879 45,125 45,319 46,617 58,586 51,360 55,456
Approvals62,976 74,943 82,304 94,487 80,372 84,125

The other aspect of this game is to reduce the "so-called" processing times:
Just a look at the processing times of the service centers show they are all now processing within 6 months as per the wishes of President Bush. (Never mind the folks who are stuck in the backlogs for years!)
 
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I tend to agree ..

Dallas03096,

I personally agree with your opinion. The current retrogression is a result of BOTH high demand (245is, surge in 485 filings over the years etc) and the need for USCIS to reduce processing times. There was no other way to do this. Continued retrogression pretty much ensures less workload.

Disclaimer - Please be advised that these are just my opinions. I do not really know what is going on with these agencies and neither does anyone else (no matter how confident they may sound in their postings).

cheers,

saras
 
Hi, Dallas03096,

-------------------------------------------------------------------
I-485 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06
Pending 863,185 843,088 813,270 776,285 728,415 70 6,629 673,864
Receipts 42,879 45,125 45,319 46,617 58,586 51,360 55,456
Approvals62,976 74,943 82,304 94,487 80,372 84,125
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Where did you get the statistics? Could you provide any link?
Or you put them together by yourself?
I only found may-06 month data at USCIS website.

To me, the statistics is very encouraging! I also agree with your reasoning.
I think next year we will see much more movement of ROW EB3 rather
than more retrogressions.

regards,
 
 
Inflow regulated with retro!

saras76 said:
The current retrogression is a result of BOTH high demand (245is, surge in 485 filings over the years etc) and the need for USCIS to reduce processing times. There was no other way to do this. Continued retrogression pretty much ensures less workload.
Click to expand...
Ombudman's report also points out USCIS estimated employment-based I-485 filings in FY'05 to be 140,006!
USCIS seems to be have achieved such a fine control over regulating the inflow.
 
Total control ..

Dallas03096 said:
Ombudman's report also points out USCIS estimated employment-based I-485 filings in FY'05 to be 140,006!
USCIS seems to be have achieved such a fine control over regulating the inflow.
Click to expand...

Dallas03096,

You are absolutely right. Retro is the only way they can control inflow, maintain a reasonable workload, reduce backlogs and ensure a relatively FIFO system. For all EB3 categories, retro has been in effect since June 2005. I think retro is here to stay. Only a legislative change will end retro. Unfortunately, my time has already been wasted and all indications are that I will have to wait even longer. It has become almost pointless for me to even think about why this has happened. It doesn't matter. What matters is that this process will consume 8+ years of my life.

regards,

saras
 
saras....i would say....8 years of your most productive life....that part where we are supposed to have the most fun since we have worked hard to get to there...
 
I agreed with the "perpetual backlog" part. Doensn't really take too much thinking to realise that with the I485 phase having an annual quota while there is no quota for Labor phase applications, there always will be more demand than available annual visa numbers. I also won't be too surprised if one day EB becomes just like FB... backlogged for almost a decade.
 
Ways to reduce Backlog !

We can make immigration team work through the backdoor !.

Ask for this info, they have to pull specifics, they need to account for each category, - the cat will be out of the bag automatically.

Folks,

http://www.usdoj.gov/04foia/

There is one way to get the info to make us understand where we stand.

If we can ask a Citizen (or a group of Citizens) to petition congress for exact figures, by "Freedom of Information Act" Govt has to provide the following statisitics.

1. Number of EB1, EB2, EB3 Applications received. (IN, CN, Mex, ROW)
2. Number of EB1, EB2, Eb3 Approved (IN, CN, Mex, ROW)
3 Number of EB1, EB2, EB3 Pending Numbers (IN, CN, Mex, ROW)

4. It would be wishful thinking, Ask Govt to remove the duplicate applications, if they find a EB2 and EB3 pending, remove one of the applns, to reduce processing times. (Or give the privilage to the applicant to choose a better PD).
----------------- XXXXX------------------------
This will indicate the exact numbers. But you also have to taken note of the duplicate filings, meaning Eb3, having a pending EB2 Appln as well. This number cannot be detected correctly.
------------------ XXXXX -----------------------
 
I totally agree your points. But my gut feeling is that EB3 ROW will move big,
and all the EB3 guys(including india, china) with PD 01,02 should be fine.


ufo2002 said:
I agreed with the "perpetual backlog" part. Doensn't really take too much thinking to realise that with the I485 phase having an annual quota while there is no quota for Labor phase applications, there always will be more demand than available annual visa numbers. I also won't be too surprised if one day EB becomes just like FB... backlogged for almost a decade.
Click to expand...
 
 
Even CIS Ombudsman is unable to get the data!

immi2006 said:
Ask for this info, they have to pull specifics, they need to account for each category, - the cat will be out of the bag automatically.

Folks,

http://www.usdoj.gov/04foia/

There is one way to get the info to make us understand where we stand.
Click to expand...
USCIS is reluctant to share info even with CIS Ombudsman regarding the total number of pending employment-based applications for green cards and how many of them are backlogged.
Do you think we will be able to get a country-wise break-up?
This is what CIS Ombudsman says in page 30/31 of his report to the Congress:
In a January 2005 e-mail to the President's Council of Economic Advisers(CEA), USCIS reported that it had 270,533 pending employment-based applications for green cards and 191,221 of these applications were backlogged. ----
For over two years, the Ombudsman has attempted to obtain this specific information, yet USCIS has repeatedly stated that this type of specific data cannot be obtained due to USCIS' lack of reporting capabilities.
http://www.dhs.gov/interweb/assetlibrary/CISOmbudsman_AnnualReport_2006.pdf
 
benben912 said:
This is really good information. Thanks.
Let's watch it closely.
Click to expand...

I do not understand what good you found in that. IMHO it is very useless and pointless data. They show in it only general number of accepted petitions, and denials.

The same time they never showed anywhere number of immigrants per country basis, and never showed how many of them EB immigrants in each category.
 
The good thing is here:
Backlogs (FB+EB) reduced from 863,185 in Nov-05 to 673,864 in May-06:

I-485 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06
Pending 863,185 843,088 813,270 776,285 728,415 70 6,629 673,864
Receipts 42,879 45,125 45,319 46,617 58,586 51,360 55,456
Approvals62,976 74,943 82,304 94,487 80,372 84,125
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Actually i think it doesn't matter whether they show detailed information
regarding EB category or not. I think USCIS will try to compensate the
visa number allocation among eb1,2,3. Look at history, which year
they limit EB3 to 28.6%? None!
All we know from this statistic is 485 backlog is being elimilated gradually. This is good.

In the past few years, USCIS issued roughly 1 million green card per year,
2/3 of them belong to AOS/485. Assume USCIS stop receving 485 application,
all the backlong can be cleared in one years,so 673,864 pending case as of May-06 is really not a big trouble. If considering EB alone, things are even
better. According to ombudsman 2006 report, there are 30975 to 89291 more case than USCIS can approve.

All of these point to one direction, eventually the cut off date has nowhere to go but advance. I don't expect big move in the first quarter,
but I believe later this year or early next year, EB3 will move substantially.

sfmars said:
I do not understand what good you found in that. IMHO it is very useless and pointless data. They show in it only general number of accepted petitions, and denials.

The same time they never showed anywhere number of immigrants per country basis, and never showed how many of them EB immigrants in each category.
Click to expand...
 
Problem ...

unitednations said:
USCIS at all times knows the priority date and country of chargeability for every greencard given.

They give very detailed statistics on it every year.

Problem they have is the pending cases. Once they are approved, they capture the information.
UN,

Who cares about the stats for approved GCs. PDs are being determined by the number of pending cases and the DOS and USCIS do not have accurate information to make informed decisions. The current dates maybe way of in either direction. Maybe the dates should be further retrogressed or maybe they should be moved ahead. The bottom line is that there is no clear way for us to find out. We will get information on the number of visas issued in '06 by Jan '07. At that point we will be able to tell if the dates were indeed effective or led to a wastage of visa numbers. I don't think there is anyway to judge this situation till that time.

I remember that you had predicted that EB3 ROW would be stuck in April '01 for several years. However, ROW has moved ahead by almost a year now. Also India EB3 visas for '06 (1900 total because of 50% dependents) should have been long gone. How can there not be over 1900 EB3 India between Jan 1998 to April 2001. Wasn't India EB3 in 1998 in Oct '05 and now its in April 01. Labor substitution itself should have claimed the 1900 visas for fiscal year '06. It is puzzling to me that EB3 India is still available. Yes there are a lot of H1Bs from India, yes there is more demand then supply, yes processing is slow sometimes .. BUT all this should add up to India EB3 visas becoming UA within the first or second quarter of each year. 1900 visas is nothing compared to the thousands of pending EB3 India cases prior to April '01. Unless ofcourse there aren't that many ...

All of this just reinforces my opinion that atleast for India EB3 dates are being held back due to projected high demand rather than hard numbers. This is not to say that their projections are wrong but the fear of the system being clogged by EB3 India if the dates move past April 01 for EB3 India may lead to the dates being stuck there for a while irrespective of how many are actually pending.

regards,

saras
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 
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Visa Cut-Off dates: Cutting us off twice

USCIS uses Visa Cut-Off dates to hit us twice:
First time it uses visa cut-off dates to decide whether we are eligible for filing I-485.(Entry into the Privileged Club eligible for EADs/APs)
The second time it uses visa cut-off dates to decide whether our I-485 petition can be approved.(Entry into the Freedom Club of GCs)

Why don't USCIS allocate a visa# to everyone at the time of allowing us to file I-485 and be done?

In this context, I like CIS Ombudsman's Recommendation 2 (on page 32 of his 2006 report to the Congress):
Assign visa numbers to employment-based green card applications as they are filed with USCIS.

By assigning visa numbers to these applications upon receipt, USCIS will ensure that it will not accept more applications than it can legally process. When USCIS denies such applications, it must notify DOS immediately so that the visa can be reallocated.
 
That makes to much sense ...

Dallas03096 said:
USCIS uses Visa Cut-Off dates to hit us twice:
First time it uses visa cut-off dates to decide whether we are eligible for filing I-485.(Entry into the Privileged Club eligible for EADs/APs)
The second time it uses visa cut-off dates to decide whether our I-485 petition can be approved.(Entry into the Freedom Club of GCs)

Why don't USCIS allocate a visa# to everyone at the time of allowing us to file I-485 and be done?

In this context, I like CIS Ombudsman's Recommendation 2 (on page 32 of his 2006 report to the Congress):
Assign visa numbers to employment-based green card applications as they are filed with USCIS.

By assigning visa numbers to these applications upon receipt, USCIS will ensure that it will not accept more applications than it can legally process. When USCIS denies such applications, it must notify DOS immediately so that the visa can be reallocated.
Click to expand...

Dallas,

You actually expect such logical steps by these agencies :). This process will never improve. It all depends on timing. Some people apply in times when certain processes are favorable while others get screwed. Its a lottery ..

regards,

saras
 
True ..

unitednations said:
Practical problem is the lifecycle of how long it takes to get a 485 approved.

If they assign visa numbers immediately and take it out of circulation but they don't approve the 485 before the end of the year then it is lost.

Example is; person files in september 2006. if they assign a visa number but don't approve it before september 2006 then that greencard quota is gone.
Click to expand...

One solution leads to other problems. This whole process is a series of Catch 22s :)

saras
 
Opportunity to do Business Process Reengineering

unitednations said:
Practical problem is the lifecycle of how long it takes to get a 485 approved.

If they assign visa numbers immediately and take it out of circulation but they don't approve the 485 before the end of the year then it is lost.

Example is; person files in september 2006. if they assign a visa number but don't approve it before september 2006 then that greencard quota is gone.
Click to expand...
What CIS Ombudsman has recommended is business process reengineering.
The rules of the game will also need to be revised so that the visa number is not lost if the I-485 is not approved within the year.
 
UN,
In this scneario whats your predictions about EB3 ROW?.

Thanks.


unitednations said:
The main reason eb3 row moved beyond april 2001 is because they suspended ac21 provision and allowed eb3 row to go get ununused visas from eb2 and eb1. This was a stroke of genius.

I don't know why you keep on hanging to the fact that india eb3 hasn't become unavailable. 245i cases aren't straight forward. Many of them get sent to local office interviews. They won't take up the visa number until it actually gets approved.

Last year visa numbers for eb3 went unavailable after they APPROVED the cases and took up the visas.
Click to expand...
 
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