When will YOUR approval come?

Silly Man

Silly Man

Volunteer moderator
Ok based on Kashmir's data (I like project kashmir), on 5/28/03, I've created a little calculator in MS-Excel. This should especially help the non-techie folks we share this forum with.

Using it is easy, enter your WAC# (Say if you are .. WAC02050 .. enter only 50, wac02129 enters 129 .. and so forth) .. and then click on "Calculate my fate".

Don't forget to enable macros.

:) Comments welcome.

- SM

(PS: Attachment coming soon)
 
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BTW, might I add, when you say half life decay, (as mentioned in the comments), the actual time is an asymptotic curve tending to zero. So, if you are a wac02001, your approval should come .. pessimistically speaking in 8 days. But since we are talking half life decay, that is your probability, but there will always a tending to zero person, who'se wait time will tend to infinity.

So if you are a WAC01 dude, assume that your wait time is reduced by half every half of a cycle.

So if pessimistically speaking your wait is 8 days, then at the end of 8 days, your pessimistic wait is 4 days, at 12 days, it is 2 days .. at 14 days its 1 day .. blah blah .. (rounds to 16 days, and then you apply this formula to 16 days .. etc. etc.), but as you move forward, your probability of still not being approved drops by half of what it was one period back.

You get the point.

(In other words, this is a rough yardstick. Instead of asymptotic curve, I am assuming straight line behavior of the second order .. but thats good enough for an estimate huh? :) )

Also, this assumes a very fair distribution of INS's case assignment, we know that doesn't happen. This graph should be most accurate for wac mid 50's, since they are not borderline cases, and use a broad enough sampling to cancel out INS random assignment noise, and the wac02(toolate), who knows what the approval rate will change to in the coming months .. but as per the current rate .. you are looking at .. Ohhh .. not too pretty.
 
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May I ask a question.
My case is WAC02-156, then according to the calculation from your file, for realistic, I still have 30 months from today (unless CSC speeds up)? Am I saying it right?
 
Originally posted by ant
May I ask a question.
My case is WAC02-156, then according to the calculation from your file, for realistic, I still have 30 months from today (unless CSC speeds up)? Am I saying it right?
Click to expand...

YUP !! And that the point I am trying to get across, and thats the good estimate, in these 30 months, if a pygmy lets out a baby fart .. INS will stop again.
 
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SM,

You have an alternative Profession!! Good Job atleast something to keep our hopes alive..
 
to keep our hopes alive.. [/B]
Click to expand...


Your hopes might be alive. mine don't look alive. 22 months is what I get and thats totally unacceptable.
For the past 6 months, I was under the impression(hope) that mine would be approved in 4 months. (since the JIT date is nov and my RD is march). And I still want to live with the same hope of 4 months... until I get mine approved.
 
:( :(

I have calculated my mine...and dang it shows 35 months on the best case scenario and on the worst case this is 69 months...

Dang! No promotions for another 40 months and I get see all jacka$$e$ and morons promoted...Hell, I cannot even tell my "moronic" supervisor what I think of him.

INS SUCKS! :rolleyes:
 
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cheez

My Wac is WAC02228 (July 10/02 RD/ND). According to the calculation in the xls file above, it looks like I am looking at a best case of 34 months before approval and worst case of 68 months??? Maybe I will be awarded with it posthoumously!!!???

Man, this sure dampens my hopes!!! I was hoping that I would get the approval atleast by the end of this year. Sure, sounds optimistic now!

Sheez, these crazy CSC a****oles need to find another job!
:mad: :mad: :mad:
 
Silly Man,
I admire most of your threads ..But this one mot...As you also know that this trend won't last long and Peopel are not going to wait 30- 40 months....This somehow dampens the spirits (That is the only thing we have control over these days ...) It would have been nice if you would have said it is a joke....
 
Originally posted by kabi2002
Silly Man,
I admire most of your threads ..But this one mot...As you also know that this trend won't last long and Peopel are not going to wait 30- 40 months....This somehow dampens the spirits (That is the only thing we have control over these days ...) It would have been nice if you would have said it is a joke....
Click to expand...

kabi2002, I understand this is a dampener. But the estimates are pretty plain .. you have X amount of people ahead of you, Y amount of people are approved per day .. X/Y is your wait time. Easy. Then throw a little probability in it (bell curve and stuff).

Anyway, having said that, I really hope that INS picks up some speed. In my other threads, I have expressed confidence in speed picking up in 2 months or so. SO, my point is ..

Kashmir's work is awesome. It gives you a real picture that INS wished you didn't have. And the real picture, as it stands today .. is !! NOT !! pretty. But keep an eye out on average number of approvals per day.

Anyway, We've stuck thru this for so long, we will go thru the rest too .. so chill.

PS: I still don't understand Alternative profession ..
 
Originally posted by Silly Man
kabi2002, I understand this is a dampener. But the estimates are pretty plain .. you have X amount of people ahead of you, Y amount of people are approved per day .. X/Y is your wait time. Easy. Then throw a little probability in it (bell curve and stuff).

Anyway, having said that, I really hope that INS picks up some speed. In my other threads, I have expressed confidence in speed picking up in 2 months or so. SO, my point is ..

Kashmir's work is awesome. It gives you a real picture that INS wished you didn't have. And the real picture, as it stands today .. is !! NOT !! pretty. But keep an eye out on average number of approvals per day.

Anyway, We've stuck thru this for so long, we will go thru the rest too .. so chill.

PS: I still don't understand Alternative profession ..
Click to expand...

Approval rate does not fall on
y= mx+c Curve:D:D

We can take up job in Burger King !! atlease if we get GC

Nothing wrong in take over of BG or MD
 
It follows more of this equation

t = -((Above_Optimistic_estimate)/0.693) * log(base_e)((Cases_Left_attime_t)/(Cases_Left_Today/Total_Cases))

(stole that from radioactive half life decay).
 
will this work with wac 03 series? and if so ,how?
thanks
I am one of the non techies in this forum:)
 
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