What to expect from October 2006 Bulletin ?

[marlon2006]

Any evidence or solid estimate as far as expectations for October 2006 VB ?
140K slots should be added in October, but the problem is that we already know the 245(i) should be probably ready to be cooked by USCIS then :-(

Given the circumstances, I pretty much gave up from expecting any significant movement from now to Oct 2006. I am also happy if I could get my GC in 2 years from now. My PD=04/2002, EB3 World.

 

[lateguy]

Any evidence or solid estimate as far as expectations for October 2006 VB ?
140K slots should be added in October, but the problem is that we already know the 245(i) should be probably ready to be cooked by USCIS then :-(

Given the circumstances, I pretty much gave up from expecting any significant movement from now to Oct 2006. I am also happy if I could get my GC in 2 years from now. My PD=04/2002, EB3 World.

When the new fiscal year starts, they won't allot all available visa numbers to USCIS. They release for the first quarter and so on.. I am not sure of the calculation for each quarter but I do know its not released 100% on day 1.

But there is a good possibility the visa numbers may get over in the last quarter (thus causing severe retrogression). at least I heard this from many people in the forum. May be someone can help us clarify that. Thanks

 

[BrainDrain]

Marlon , with a PD of 4/2002 I am sure it should take less than 2 years.You sound pessimistic. Guess what my PD is 01/2003 !

Its probable that we may see some positive news soon. Atleast the law should help legal immigrants.

A credible poll has suggested that 79% of Americans are against providing any form of legal documentation to the illegals.

 

[BrainDrain]

Also I would appreciate if someone can tell me what exactly does the 245 (i) cases refer to .. sorry as I have not referred that earlier in this forum maybe.

 

[gcstrat]

Refer to my thread

Guys and Gals

I have done some number crunching regarding how bad really the Visa number i.e. I-485 situation is.

My numbers are as of March 2006, the backlog is 141K to 157K (For more details/ Excel - check the "Retrogression: doing the Math - I-485 backlog estimates" thread on this forum)

Now, USCIS HAS processed 242,335 EB I-485 in FY 2005. This means, on a global basis, the backlog is not more than 7-8 months.

So, Why are we retrogressed???

Two words: "Expected Demand"

BECs have 255K pending cases and PERM has about 20K waiting for Labor clearance.

Regards
GCStrat

 

[saras76]

True ...

Guys and Gals

I have done some number crunching regarding how bad really the Visa number i.e. I-485 situation is.

My numbers are as of March 2006, the backlog is 141K to 157K (For more details/ Excel - check the "Retrogression: doing the Math - I-485 backlog estimates" thread on this forum)

Now, USCIS HAS processed 242,335 EB I-485 in FY 2005. This means, on a global basis, the backlog is not more than 7-8 months.

So, Why are we retrogressed???

Two words: "Expected Demand"

BECs have 255K pending cases and PERM has about 20K waiting for Labor clearance.

Regards
GCStrat

GCStrat,

I have not done any number crunching but I agree with your assertion that the extreme EB3 retrogression is based on projected demand. The sad part is that reality has not kept up with the projected demand. Most 245i cases are still stuck in the BECs and they are approving cases in a totally random fashion.

Here are the possible scenarios as I see it -

1. Best Case Scenario - USCIS does not see a flood of EB3 cases from 2001 and before in the next few months because BECs are not doing their jobs and DOS decides to move the PDs in order to utilize the unused visa numbers from this year. This may get the dates into mid to late 2001 by Oct 06 if we are lucky. Although this is a possible scenario, I think it is unlikely to happen.

2. Worst Case Scenario - The BECs clean up their act and the DOS and USCIS sees a flood of 2001 PDs in the next few months. In this case the dates might actually go back or become unavailable in the months leading upto Oct 06. This is also a possible scenario but I think it is just as unlikely as the best case scenario.

3. Most Likely Scenario - The DOS and USCIS does not see a flood of 2001 PDs but they keep the dates moving at a snails pace in anticipation of these cases. Oct 06 will roll around and all of a sudden all the unused visa numbers from this year will get wasted. I think this is the most likely scenario. I am basing this prediction on the past record of these useless agencies.

It will be interesting to see which one of the above will come true. Corrections to my theories are most welcome ..

regards,

saras76

 

[saras76]

245i's ...

Also I would appreciate if someone can tell me what exactly does the 245 (i) cases refer to .. sorry as I have not referred that earlier in this forum maybe.

BrainDrain,

245i cases represent undocumented (illegal aliens) that were given the opportunity to file their regular NON RIR labor before April 2001 and hence giving them the opportunity to become legal by filing 485s. The 245i cases come under the umbrella of EB3. Since April 2001 was the deadline, there was a mad rush to file labors that particular month and I believe about 150-200 K cases were filed in that month alone. This mad rush led to years of delay in the labor certification process (my labor took 2 years to get approved because it was filed in August 01). With so many labor certs flooding the system the DOS and USCIS came up with a lame brain idea of setting up Back Log Elimination Centers (BECs) to process the thousands of pendings labor certs. In the mean time they introduced PERM to replace the regular labor cert process. This is what happened a few years ago .. now onto whats happening right now ..

The BECs have not been doing their job and are "supposedly" sitting on 300K labor certs. The DOS and USCIS are waiting for the BECs to approve these and are expecting these cases to flood the system and take away all the EB3 visa numbers. This is not happening but the dates are not moving. We are getting screwed. When the dates were current the USCIS approved cases in random order. They approved 2002,2003 PDs before 2000-2001 and so people like me with 2001 PDs and before who were delayed because of mistakes made by the USCIS (lost file) got totally screwed. When the USCIS realized that they have totally messed up this process by giving away visa numbers to earlier PDs they froze the process by retrogressing the dates by 6 years. Since introducing retrogression, the DOS and USCIS have been trying to get a handle on this situation by keeping the dates crawling and hence making sure they do not have that many cases coming in while they try to "fix" the self created problem.

So what does all this mean? In a nutshell, the USCIS and DOS have created this problem and are making us suffer for it. That is the truth .. only someone who has been abused like me and has done his homework knows the dirty truth. Most people are just unaware of the reality of this mess ... I hope you have a better understanding of this situation now and I am sure you are hopping mad .. just as I am ..

regards,

saras76

 

[AGC4ME]

Saras76 take heart

Saras76,
I'm a Nov. 2001 filer. NameCheck still pending. Applied for I140/485 concurrently in March 2004. I think the effect of 245(i) is quite overblown. Remember most of the 245(i) cases would have been from latino countries. I doubt there would be many from India or China. You guys are forgetting the country quota that these 245(i) cases also have to abide by (unless they made a rule that 245(i) do not come under country quota)...
Basically the 245(i) cases would reduce the number of UNUSED visas that India EB-3 was using these years. I think that's the only effect of 245(i) on India. Correct me if I am wrong.
Btw what will happen if one abandons his GC process. I am strongly thinking of leaving this s*** and going back to India. Heck as shahrukh says "It's better to be the badshah of bollywood than a servant in hollywood".

 

[marlon2006]

Realistic

BrainDain, let me give you the bad news:the poll which you referred had been affected by the order in which the questions were asked. Numbersusa and a radio commentator was talking about that this morning. It seems people were given the choice to pick between "round up and deport" all illegals and "legalize them". Since people knows that "rounding up" of 12 million is not feasible, it seems they picked the latter option since it appeared to be "legalization", not amnesty. If you want to have a true feeling on how the American public feel about this idea of giving amnesty to illegal aliens, listen to the radio and participate in anti-illegal alien newsgroups. Also, there is an ongoing debate about the need to secure the borders and stop the influx prior to extend or even discuss any guest worker program or let alone amnesty. You and I probably know that USCIS cannot handle a guest worker program or otherwise for 20 million people. If you watched CNN - Lou Dobbs last week, you may have watched the interview with the director who ran the 1986 amnesty program;he said that it was a disaster, people showing up with fake and bogus documents, etc. That was with 3 million, in the end 4 million showed up for the amnesty. Imagine what it could be with 11-20 million (or even more, who knows ?). Honestly, USCIS does not have the infrastructure to implement such guest-worker program in the short or mid term.

Therefore I am not necessarily expecting for a bill this year. Hopefully it will pass, but I am not sure.

Marlon , with a PD of 4/2002 I am sure it should take less than 2 years.You sound pessimistic. Guess what my PD is 01/2003 !

Its probable that we may see some positive news soon. Atleast the law should help legal immigrants.

A credible poll has suggested that 79% of Americans are against providing any form of legal documentation to the illegals.

 

[marlon2006]

Here is another poll

Braindrain, here is another poll which contradicts the one you outlined. I am aware that there are other polls showing the opposite. Polls are all over the place, I think the ultimate "poll" you will remain to be seen coming election day in November.

CNN, 04/10/06:
"...
Illegal aliens and their supporters may have convinced President Bush to support their amnesty agenda, but they have not been able to convince the American people. A new ABC-"Washington Post" poll shows the majority of Americans are strongly opposed to the president's guest worker amnesty program.

Sixty-one percent of Americans surveyed do not approve of the president's stance on illegal immigration. Seventy-five percent of Americans say the United States is not doing enough to keep illegal aliens out of this country.

For the most part, media reports have echoed the language approved by the illegal alien lobby itself. Protesters are being described in the media and in the news networks as pro-immigrant, no distinction made between legal and illegal immigrants.
..."

Marlon , with a PD of 4/2002 I am sure it should take less than 2 years.You sound pessimistic. Guess what my PD is 01/2003 !

Its probable that we may see some positive news soon. Atleast the law should help legal immigrants.

A credible poll has suggested that 79% of Americans are against providing any form of legal documentation to the illegals.

 

[texancanadian]

Shoot, I am not a US Citizen and it still pissed me off when the illegals start protesting with Mexican and Central American flags.

I would not let anyone in with suspect loyalty into my country, especially in this day and age. Imagine some protesting in India carrying Pakistani flags or someone protesting in UK with even French Flags.

These illegals were stupid. By carrying other flags etc they have screwed up their own agenda.

 

[marlon2006]

You should hear some lead organizers in interviews with Michael Savage and Lou Dobbs:they typically sound very unreasonable. Typically they have a socialist agenda, arguing that all illegals should get citizenship right away. I have the impression that more they continue speaking up and disclosing that type of mentality, more deffensive Americans will get. That means it would be more difficult to reach a compromise.

Shoot, I am not a US Citizen and it still pissed me off when the illegals start protesting with Mexican and Central American flags.

I would not let anyone in with suspect loyalty into my country, especially in this day and age. Imagine some protesting in India carrying Pakistani flags or someone protesting in UK with even French Flags.

These illegals were stupid. By carrying other flags etc they have screwed up their own agenda.

 

[ufo2002]

Totally agree. And notice in the most recent street marches, the flags were mostly USA? It was kinda obvious if you keep waving foreign flags here, you are not going to go down well with the rest of the nation. It totally shocks me that these people actually believe they have the divine right to demand for citizenship when they have no rights in the first place (they did come in here without notifying the authorities, right?). They should be grateful that this country even allows them to behave the way they did.

Shoot, I am not a US Citizen and it still pissed me off when the illegals start protesting with Mexican and Central American flags.

I would not let anyone in with suspect loyalty into my country, especially in this day and age. Imagine some protesting in India carrying Pakistani flags or someone protesting in UK with even French Flags.

These illegals were stupid. By carrying other flags etc they have screwed up their own agenda.

 

[gcstrat]

Rate of backlog elimination

Saras76

My point is that based on current I-485 applications filed, other than 7-8 month backlog, there is no basis for retrogression.

However, USCIS is harping on "Expected Demand" which in my view is unlikely to materialize fast. Here's why:

There are 255,000 applications backlogged in BECs as of March 17, 2006.
Let's assume three scenarios. BECs eliminate this backlog in 12 months, 24 months or 36 months.

Which means, BECs processing rate is
if within 12 months = 255,000 / 12 = 21,250 per month
if within 24 months = 255,000 / 24 = 10,625 per month
if within 36 months = 255,000 / 36 = 7,083 per month

After BEC completes labor, remember these guys have to complete the process the old way - i.e. do advertisements, job interviews, etc. This will add an average of 3 months to the process.

After this they have to file I-140. Add another 6 months to that. This basically means, it is an average 9 month lag after BEC approves Labor.

We know that BECs have processed 108,000 applications in past 12 months i.e. about 9,000 cases per month. At this rate, processing of the entire backlog will take about 28 months to clear.

Currently, cases cleared about 9 months ago are hitting USCIS at the rate of 9,000 per month OR LESS. USCIS in FY 2005 operated at 20195 cases per month. This means about 45% OR LESS of cases "hitting" USCIS are from BECs.

MY speculation # 1 is that actual cases hitting USCIS is LOWER than 9K per month from BEC, mainly because of EB3 retro. May explain why NSC has announced it will continue adjudicating filed I-485 cases. Basically, they do not have work.

MY speculation # 2 is USCIS by keeping the EB3 dates for countries other than India at May 1, 2001 wants to clear EB3 Rest of World, Mexico, etc. FIRST since they have crossed the threshold April 30, 2001 date.

Which may also imply (my speculation # 3) that BECs may be working on 245(i) cases rather than regular EB cases.

Which brings us back to the point when will the expected demand materialize. My take is not very likely in the near future.

Regards
GCStrat

 

[nyte_crawler]

Waving Flag is such a trivial issue and people like Savage and Lou Dobbs makes them a big deal. It is because they never thought illegal immigrants and their families will be able to put up such massive peaceful protests. While on the other hand, Lou Dobbs will go across the border for his show and proudly wave American flag in his background in Mexico. What a hypocrite ?
If I was a person living in borders in deep poverty with two kids, I will definitely jump the border. These folks are less privileged and they come here to make money and feed their families. Iam by no means a socialist, but that does'nt mean that I will give more privileges to the elite than the poor. USA allowed these immigrants to come in through the borders by having a job market. They don't want to pay $14/hr to clean dishes. Because if they do, then prices are going to reflect the increase in cost. There is a market for unskilled labors who want to want for $7/hr and every American knows it and they enjoy the benefits too. I don't understand why they complain when these hard-working folks ask for legalization but at the same time they want to have the benefits they bring it to them.

I watched a CNN show that showed a guy who was protesting against illegals, but at the same time he was employing the same folks in his house-building business. What a hypocrite ? He wants to make the cake and eat it too. The reason why he is totally against is because he knows once this is finalized he has to pay more for the same folks and they will demand their rights. Americans really dont want to stop the illegals from coming in but they dont want to give them their status.

We legals are probably fortunate enough to work as a skilled worker in a big company making big bucks. We are probably exploited too, but we have options and we choose to endure this, and the exploitation is probably worse for the illegals when they can't go back to their own country because of the fear of getting caught and prosecution. I understand the anger and the frustration when something does not work. But the problem lies within the organization. USCIS the system is broke. They will allow the labor substition people (I can them line jumpers) to take advantage of the system. They will not follow any sensible way of tracking visa numbers. They issue numerous visas during 2004 pretty much for everyday. It was like Walmart's everyday GC for every other PD. That sucks.

 

[marlon2006]

Hey Nyte_Crawler, but here is another point:
Employers seem to absorb the profits from the cheap labor, not sure how much of those lower labor costs are passed to consumers. Also, once illegals get legalized and start paying taxes, let's see how long they will continue to work for low wages.

My understanding is that a balance is necessary. I think importing cheap labor at an uncontrolled rate is not going to benefit America. Every single employer likes the import and get the cheapest labor to maximize profits, but remember there is a limit in the amount of cheap labor people this country can absorb before starting heading to a third world path.

In my view the idea of increasing the total immigration quota from 1 million to 2 million maybe the answer, as proposed by many bills now in congress. I pay people to clean my house once in a while - and I never checked their immigration status - but chances are they are illegals. If they are deported, perhaps instead of paying $60 I would need to pay $90 instead. Well, I would clean the house myself then, so what ? That's how this country was designed to be. Unlimited supply of cheap labor is not necessarily positive to this country in the overall.

market. They don't want to pay $14/hr to clean dishes. Because if they do, then prices are going to reflect the increase in cost. There is a market for unskilled labors who want to want for $7/hr and every American knows it and they enjoy the benefits too. I don't understand why they complain when these hard-working folks ask for legalization but at the same time they want to have the benefits they bring it to them.