Silly Man
Volunteer moderator
Based upon PCee's list, I've done a little analysis for October people,
October Cases
Total: 34
Total Unapproved: 15
Total pinks (Info added later): 19
Total Unapproved pinks: 3
WAC range: WAC-01-297 to WAC-02-010
If you see the above, we have a huge # of pinks, so obviously calculations need to accomodate for pinks
Pinks who keep getting added later, and until 88% approval rate (assuming 12% drop out rate), we have
Adjusted Total = Total * Adjustment Factor
The adjustment factor must not include Approved Pinks because assuming Approved people have a greater enthu to add than the vice versa.
Therefore, Adjustment Factor = (1+Unapproved Pinks/Total Unapproved)
Gives Adjusted Total = 34*(1+3/15) = 34*1.2= 41 People.
Which gives us,
Total Approved = 15/41 = 36%
Given the above, and that the range of approval dates (excluding freak cases), we see it took CSC from the mid of 6 to mid of 8 = 2 months to approve 36% cases.
Assuming asymptotic decline, 2 more months and everyone in the october list should expect an approval (excluding freak cases). Might I add, the further south you go without an approval, the higher is your probability of becoming a freak case
.
I really wish I had the FP locations of the people who got approved to give you a clearer picture, but ... !!! If you are Los Angeles-ian, and assuming 50% apps got filed in So. Cal. your turn should be real close.
So people, please post your FP locations with your approvals .
Later tator.
- SM
October Cases
Total: 34
Total Unapproved: 15
Total pinks (Info added later): 19
Total Unapproved pinks: 3
WAC range: WAC-01-297 to WAC-02-010
If you see the above, we have a huge # of pinks, so obviously calculations need to accomodate for pinks
Pinks who keep getting added later, and until 88% approval rate (assuming 12% drop out rate), we have
Adjusted Total = Total * Adjustment Factor
The adjustment factor must not include Approved Pinks because assuming Approved people have a greater enthu to add than the vice versa.
Therefore, Adjustment Factor = (1+Unapproved Pinks/Total Unapproved)
Gives Adjusted Total = 34*(1+3/15) = 34*1.2= 41 People.
Which gives us,
Total Approved = 15/41 = 36%
Given the above, and that the range of approval dates (excluding freak cases), we see it took CSC from the mid of 6 to mid of 8 = 2 months to approve 36% cases.
Assuming asymptotic decline, 2 more months and everyone in the october list should expect an approval (excluding freak cases). Might I add, the further south you go without an approval, the higher is your probability of becoming a freak case
.I really wish I had the FP locations of the people who got approved to give you a clearer picture, but ... !!! If you are Los Angeles-ian, and assuming 50% apps got filed in So. Cal. your turn should be real close.
So people, please post your FP locations
with your approvals .Later tator.
- SM