VSC AOS currently *faster* than Montreal CP (including I-140 time)!?

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ETA

Registered Users (C)
Hi.

Any thoughts/comments on the following (perhaps incorrect) observation would be much appreciated.

From what I can tell it looks like going the AOS route at VSC is currently *faster* than going the CP route through Montreal!?

I'm basing this conclusion on the following information.

#1 According to sites like http://www.murthy.com/pt_verm.html, the VSC is currently taking about 18 months to process I-485's (they are processing 01/01/2002 currently). Since this can occur concurrently with the I-140 process and since I-140's, at least for the EB2 category are taking about 13 months, it seems that the entire process should take 18 months (if things don't change).

#2 According to the information for the 6 most recent entries at http://www.cptracker.com (for the Montreal consolate) obtained by taking the time between the I-140 acceptance date and the CP interview date:

I-140 AD CP ID Days Months

03/31/02 06/03/03 429 14.1
09/20/02 05/22/03 244 8.0
07/26/02 05/08/03 286 9.4
08/09/02 04/04/03 238 7.8
05/28/02 03/17/03 293 9.6
02/27/02 01/06/03 313 10.3

CP appears to be taking an average of 9.9 months which, when added to the I-140 processing time of 13 months (since these can not be done concurrently as far as I know), gives a total time of about 23 months.

If these numbers are correct, then contrary to "conventional wisdom", AOS is actually taking less time than CP, at least when comparing VSC vs Montreal (assuming concurrent I-140 and I-485 processing).

I was previously considering going the CP route because of the historically faster processing time but the above numbers (if correct) probably make going the AOS route the best choice (unless there are specific reasons to go with CP).

Can this be correct or is there something wrong with my calculations?

Comments/confirmations/refutations/flames all equally welcome :).

ETA
 
ETA

Your observations are okay if you take todays snapshot.

However if you look at the trend, AOS is not keeping the same pace. In last 10 months, they have only moved 3 months. It may not be that your case will be approved in 18 months. It may get approved in 24 months.

On the other hand, I don't know where you got the 9 months number for CP. Each case is different and may had some problem. Conventionally we have seen average CP cases to India takes 5-8 months.

Also on I-140, you can file for EB3 application. VSC is much faster in clearing these application nowadays. It may change.

Hope this helps
 
Re: ETA

Originally posted by kkulkar
Your observations are okay if you take todays snapshot.

Thanks for your reply/feedback, kkulkar.

On the other hand, I don't know where you got the 9 months number for CP. Each case is different and may had some problem. Conventionally we have seen average CP cases to India takes 5-8 months.

The 9 months average comes from the last 6 cases to be processed at Montreal from cptracker.com so I thought that this number could be trusted somewhat. Note that one of the cases (the most recent one) actually took 14 months from I-140 AD to the CP interview date.

However if you look at the trend, AOS is not keeping the same pace. In last 10 months, they have only moved 3 months. It may not be that your case will be approved in 18 months. It may get approved in 24 months.

This may be true, but it sounds like the AOS times would need to increase by about 6 months to start to match the current CP processing times (assuming that we can trust my 9 month figure). Of course, that could easily happen if the times continue to slip at the same rate. And, how do we know that consular processing times aren't going to increase also?

Also on I-140, you can file for EB3 application. VSC is much faster in clearing these application nowadays. It may change.

(Note: the following is incorrect -- see correct explanation of EB categories below). So, is I-140 EB2 vs EB3 represented in the processing times list with:

I-140 Immigrant Petitioner for Alien Worker E12
5/20/2002

and

I-140 Immigrant Petitioner for Alien Worker E13
1/13/2003

respectively (has anyone matched these codes to EB categories)?

If so, it sounds like this would shave 7 months or so off the CP process.

ETA
Click to expand...
 
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ETA

The characterization of EB based cases is not correct.

E12 and E13 are Priority 1 categories.

E21 is a category if you have Masters degree of Bachelor + 5 year experience.

E31 is a category for normal Bachelors.

So i think you should file either in EB21 or EB31 Category. I have seen that if you file Solo I-140 your case will be cleared fast.

e.g. My EB-21 I-140 filing date was 28th September 2002. My case got approved on June 25th 2003. If you look at VSC update of 1st July, they show that they are processing 5th September 2002 cases.

More Interestingly if you look at EB31 dates, then VSC shows that they are processing 25th September 2002, but I have seen that a bunch of October 2002 cases have been approved.

Lastly, I and my friends believe that it will take them 2 years to complete AOS process from time of filing due to security checks, backlogs etc. (Remember, from Dec 2002, they will issuing EAD for 2 years, so they are anticipating delays).

Anyway, talk to your attorney and see what he/she thinks. I will still say that if processed normally CP processing should be complete in 5-6 months time. I have not seen any other special rules for Montreal Consulate

Hope this helps
 
Thanks again for your feedback kkulkar!

Are you suggesting that concurrent I-140 / I-485 applications result in slower I-140 processing? I think I've come across some speculation that this is the case elsewhere.

Thanks for clearing up the EB <--> Exx situation. I recently came across the following information which might also be helpful:

Employment 1st Preference (Priority Workers)

E11 ................. Alien with Extraordinary Ability
E12 ................. Outstanding Professor or Researcher
E13 ................. Multinational Executive or Manager

Employment 2nd Preference (Professionals Holding Advanced Degrees or Persons of Exceptional Ability)

E21 ................. Professional Holding Advanced Degree or of Exceptional Ability

Employment 3rd Preference (Skilled Workers, Professionals, and Other Workers)


E31 ................. Skilled Worker
E32 ................. Professional Holding Baccalaureate Degree
EW3................. Other Worker (Subgroup Numerical Limit

The latest processing times indicate that E3X are about 1 month ahead of E2X at this moment.

ETA
 
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