SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
So, some of you will have noticed I get annoyed when people take a handful of posts here and draw some grand conclusions about what KCC "must" be doing. Latest example is people reporting on who has been asked to send further documents for DV2022. Hopefully this post will help put into context why I think this type of reasoning is very shaky indeed. (Note I am not talking about analysis based on the data that is pulled from CEAC etc, but from people who "poll" others to answer questions like "when did you submit" and try draw conclusions from that)
Let's look at DV2022. There are 119k selectees; assuming (and it is a valid assumption because the draw is random) that the principal:derivative ratio of selectees is about the same as entries, that gives us about 66200 cases. Sixty six thousand, two hundred cases. So when people make conclusions here based on ten, twenty, fifty, even a hundred (I don't believe we have ever had seen anywhere near 100 responses about things like who is DQ here), it is not even a rounding error. It is just way too small and insignificant to mean anything. Anything at all. Much less "KCC must be doing it this way" or (my bête noire here) "KCC is just doing what is easiest for them". If we get 50 anecdotal experiences - IF we even get that many - it's 0.07% of cases. If we get 20 posts about it, it's 0.03%. 0.03%!! It's laughable to draw a conclusion about anything from such a tiny sliver.
But wait! It gets worse. It's not even as though that 0.07% or less is even representative. We have whole swathes of DV that just do not post here. Some of that is because they prefer non-English forums, some of that is they have set up whatsapp or whatever as an alternative. The reason doesn't really matter, the fact that they give no input here matters a lot. The most striking example is the EU region, which is dominated by FSU countries. In fact, the FSU makes up over a quarter of the entire DV selection for DV2022! But where are they on this thread? We get one or two but hardly anyone to represent all these people. So especially when anyone makes a conclusion for EU here, it is almost meaningless, because what we see posted is a tiny fraction of a tiny non-representative fraction of the region. How do you know what they are doing for EU when the vast, vast majority of EU selectees are unrepresented here? You can expand that conclusion further into the general DV illustration. We don't see a lot of North African country selectees posting here (again, some but not a lot). Yet just Egypt, Algeria and Morocco make up 14% of DV cases. Add in DRC, Kenya, Ethiopia ... again, we barely see anyone posting. We get a lot of OC (and i think OC probably has the best handle on their region on this forum) and we get some EU but as explained already it's so unrepresentative of the region because you need the FSU (especially Russia, Ukraine and Uzbekistan, the 3 biggest) if you want to understand what is actually going on with EU cases. We get a little bit of Africa, but mainly west africa and a smattering of the rest. We don't get a huge amount of AS selectees, we do usually get a few Nepalese and Iranians (biggest countries) but hardly any Afghans (God bless them, I don't know what happens next) who are the 3rd biggest selectees in AS.
So : when you are looking at a tiny sample of selectees and it is not even representative, please don't be going on about what KCC "must" be doing, or how they are deciding to approach cases, because you actually have no idea. You really don't. There are literally tens of thousands of other cases out there and all you need is not even a rounding error of those to completely disprove any "theory" you might come up with.
Let’s stick to supporting each other and giving constructive advice where we can rather than wasting time on shaky theories about why KCC supposedly isn’t doing its job properly.
Let's look at DV2022. There are 119k selectees; assuming (and it is a valid assumption because the draw is random) that the principal:derivative ratio of selectees is about the same as entries, that gives us about 66200 cases. Sixty six thousand, two hundred cases. So when people make conclusions here based on ten, twenty, fifty, even a hundred (I don't believe we have ever had seen anywhere near 100 responses about things like who is DQ here), it is not even a rounding error. It is just way too small and insignificant to mean anything. Anything at all. Much less "KCC must be doing it this way" or (my bête noire here) "KCC is just doing what is easiest for them". If we get 50 anecdotal experiences - IF we even get that many - it's 0.07% of cases. If we get 20 posts about it, it's 0.03%. 0.03%!! It's laughable to draw a conclusion about anything from such a tiny sliver.
But wait! It gets worse. It's not even as though that 0.07% or less is even representative. We have whole swathes of DV that just do not post here. Some of that is because they prefer non-English forums, some of that is they have set up whatsapp or whatever as an alternative. The reason doesn't really matter, the fact that they give no input here matters a lot. The most striking example is the EU region, which is dominated by FSU countries. In fact, the FSU makes up over a quarter of the entire DV selection for DV2022! But where are they on this thread? We get one or two but hardly anyone to represent all these people. So especially when anyone makes a conclusion for EU here, it is almost meaningless, because what we see posted is a tiny fraction of a tiny non-representative fraction of the region. How do you know what they are doing for EU when the vast, vast majority of EU selectees are unrepresented here? You can expand that conclusion further into the general DV illustration. We don't see a lot of North African country selectees posting here (again, some but not a lot). Yet just Egypt, Algeria and Morocco make up 14% of DV cases. Add in DRC, Kenya, Ethiopia ... again, we barely see anyone posting. We get a lot of OC (and i think OC probably has the best handle on their region on this forum) and we get some EU but as explained already it's so unrepresentative of the region because you need the FSU (especially Russia, Ukraine and Uzbekistan, the 3 biggest) if you want to understand what is actually going on with EU cases. We get a little bit of Africa, but mainly west africa and a smattering of the rest. We don't get a huge amount of AS selectees, we do usually get a few Nepalese and Iranians (biggest countries) but hardly any Afghans (God bless them, I don't know what happens next) who are the 3rd biggest selectees in AS.
So : when you are looking at a tiny sample of selectees and it is not even representative, please don't be going on about what KCC "must" be doing, or how they are deciding to approach cases, because you actually have no idea. You really don't. There are literally tens of thousands of other cases out there and all you need is not even a rounding error of those to completely disprove any "theory" you might come up with.
Let’s stick to supporting each other and giving constructive advice where we can rather than wasting time on shaky theories about why KCC supposedly isn’t doing its job properly.
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