Statistics: Priority Date (EB2)

[EB2help]

Here is the statistical data from past 4 years. I hope this might help predict the priority date progress by Guru's here:

Year Total Visa Issued EB1 EB2 EB3 India Consumed cummulative(all EB's) %for India
2001 179,195 41,801 42,620 86,058 39,010 21.77%
2002 174,968 34,452 44,468 88,555 42,885 24.51%
2003 82,137 14,544 15,459 46,613 20,560 25.03%
2004 155,330 31,291 32,534 85,969 38,443 24.75%

In summary, India consumes approximately 21-25% of the total Employment based quota. The numbers for EB1 and EB2 catagories granted remains similar except for 2002 (where EB2 was granted in large proportion than EB1). Based on this data, and assuming extent of EB1 and EB2 demands in equal proportion. I expect EB2 priority dates to follow, EB1 closely for next couple of months. Here are the data for priority date movment from EB1 and EB2 since retrogression:
Month/Year EB1 date EB2 date Increase in EB1 Increase in EB2
10/2005 08/2002 11/1999 - -
11/2005 08/2002 11/1999 0 0
12/2005 02/2003 07/2000 6 8
01/2006 07/2003 01/2001 5 6
02/2006 02/2004 08/2001 7 7
03/2006 07/2004 01/2002 5 5
04/2006 01/2005 07/2002 6 6

Now, the trend which might come up in next few months for EB2 is progress in exactly similar way as for EB1:
just consider 11/2005 for EB1 to be same as 04/2006 for EB2. Which means those with priority dates of Jan01, 2005 for EB2 should expect to get it there in Sep 2006 bulletin.

But, it seems to work from data but clearly this is all statistical game! I will be happy to know you guys openion.

 

[msh626]

"Prediction is hard, especially the future" - Yogi Berra

If someone tried to construct a predictive AI computer program for the visa bulletin, USCIS would definitely be a failing test condition for the program.

 

[can_card]

Retrogression in EB2 for India & China is not justifyable. I have done extensive analysis with all the statistics. In no single year from 1999 to 2005, Eb2 demand is more than 44000. The retrogression is more applicable for EB3 and EB1, as the demand is much more than supply, not in EB2. The last year 2005 statisctis is enough to justify my finding.

The total EB visa issued = 242,000 (140,000 regular+102,000AC21)
EB1 = 66,000
EB2 = 44,000
EB3 = 122,000

Therefore, the asecnding order of retrogression should be EB3>EB1>EB2. The should be least in EB2. But it is going otherway between EB1 and EB2. DOS itself had admitted that EB1 is cosuming very fast in this year comper to EB2. But they are moving the date for EB1 very fast compare to EB2. It is tottally non-sense. The demand for EB1 has always been much higher than EB2, since 1999, as most of the companies send 'multinational executives" to avoid Labor certification. For example Mexico consumed more EB1(3000) than EB2 (300) in FY 2005.

The following countries consumes more EB1 visas compare to EB2.
Mexico, Korea, Philiphines, Canada, UK, Brazil, Colombia, Venizula. These contries are top 10 EB visa consumers other than India and China. UK is number 1 in EB1 consumption, not India or China. Though unused numbers in EB5 (investor), goes to EB1, the demand for EB1 is much more higher than EB2. Therefore it should have more retrogression than EB2, because above mentioned countries also demanding more. Therefore, per country quota is more applicable in EB1, than EB2.

DOS is not at all looking the demand before moving the cutoff dates.

 

[BoxOfChocs]

The data is convincing, but the per-country limitation has hit from October 2005, I think!
Unfortunately, those whose opinion counts - are not likely reading or posting on these Boards!

 

[gc143]

EB2HELP and CAN_CARD...

I hope and pray you guys are right...I will send you a box of chocolates if the EB2 numbers become current by June....