get_a_life
Registered Users (C)
Hi Jitup/ Guys,
Incidently, I too was working on finding the statistical
estimate of approval time based on the publicly available BCIS
filing/approval data. I was about to post my calculations and but then saw Jitup's xlsheet. So I added more data in the xlsheet that is missing from Jitu's original file and included some interpretaions related to average approval estimates.
Following is the snapshot.
Best Monthly Approval ever seen from INS July 2001 : 410, 582
Worst case Dec 2002 : 9, 832
Average of all availabe data(oct 00 to Jan 03) : 79, 059
Average from oct01 to jan 03 : 62 ,488
Example calculation of my pending case 485 RD: 10/04/2002
Total number of I-485 filed since Nov 01 to Sep02 : 665619
Assuming 1/4 of this belongs to CSC: 166,405
Taking 1/4 of the above mentioned approval rates(all centers) as the average CSC approval rate.
The various estimates of my approval time are.
Overall Best estimate : 1.62 months (highly unlikely)
Overall Worst estimate: 67.69 months (highly unlikely)
Overall average estimate : 8.41 months ( likely)
estimate based on Last 16 months average: 10.59 months. (likely)
Please note I have excluded two wrong data points provided by INS in june2001 and sep 2002, which will skew the statistics.
See the attached xls for more details. If you any of you guys
have more data points , please update.
Please let me know if I have missed/misinterpreted any key assumptions.
Incidently, I too was working on finding the statistical
estimate of approval time based on the publicly available BCIS
filing/approval data. I was about to post my calculations and but then saw Jitup's xlsheet. So I added more data in the xlsheet that is missing from Jitu's original file and included some interpretaions related to average approval estimates.
Following is the snapshot.
Best Monthly Approval ever seen from INS July 2001 : 410, 582
Worst case Dec 2002 : 9, 832
Average of all availabe data(oct 00 to Jan 03) : 79, 059
Average from oct01 to jan 03 : 62 ,488
Example calculation of my pending case 485 RD: 10/04/2002
Total number of I-485 filed since Nov 01 to Sep02 : 665619
Assuming 1/4 of this belongs to CSC: 166,405
Taking 1/4 of the above mentioned approval rates(all centers) as the average CSC approval rate.
The various estimates of my approval time are.
Overall Best estimate : 1.62 months (highly unlikely)
Overall Worst estimate: 67.69 months (highly unlikely)
Overall average estimate : 8.41 months ( likely)
estimate based on Last 16 months average: 10.59 months. (likely)
Please note I have excluded two wrong data points provided by INS in june2001 and sep 2002, which will skew the statistics.
See the attached xls for more details. If you any of you guys
have more data points , please update.
Please let me know if I have missed/misinterpreted any key assumptions.
