I've been taking snapshots of I-485 Adjudications (i.e. approval + open-RFE) from the Rupnet site for the last 5 weeks. Here is what the WEEKLY progress for each 2001 month was over the last 5 weeks:
May June July August September October November
18-Oct 85% 68% 86% 78% 53% 19% 4%
25-Oct 85% 68% 86% 80% 57% 26% 3%
1-Nov 85% 68% 86% 80% 62% 32% 3%
8-Nov 85% 68% 87% 81% 67% 38% 4%
15-Nov 85% 67% 87% 80% 68% 39% 3%
The data shows that June and July are pretty stabilized by this point. There was very miniscule movement in August (clearing out old cases?). The discrepancy in where those adjudications are stabilized may just be a fluke of Rupnet users for that month who returned to update their cases or not. The slight decrease for June and July cases may be due to "the forgotten few" whose cases are still in limbo specifically seeking out sites like Rupnet/ImmigrationPortal to see what the heck is happening. So I believe that "reversal" is statistically insignificant.
But the real worrying trend is with September and October cases. It looks like the RATE of adjudications is dropping even now. You'd expect since INS is supposed to be nearing the end of its "cleanup" at least the rate would be picking up but it's not.
Now a lot of us were expecting that once October hits ~45% that November would start like the monsoon rain. But just look at the lingering September percentage. With September still open like that, I don't think November would start even if October did hit 45%.
This has me really worried folks I don't know about you. My personal opinion is that Nov-01 approvals will take anywhere from December to February. With Dec-01 approvals going from February to April.
God help us all.
May June July August September October November
18-Oct 85% 68% 86% 78% 53% 19% 4%
25-Oct 85% 68% 86% 80% 57% 26% 3%
1-Nov 85% 68% 86% 80% 62% 32% 3%
8-Nov 85% 68% 87% 81% 67% 38% 4%
15-Nov 85% 67% 87% 80% 68% 39% 3%
The data shows that June and July are pretty stabilized by this point. There was very miniscule movement in August (clearing out old cases?). The discrepancy in where those adjudications are stabilized may just be a fluke of Rupnet users for that month who returned to update their cases or not. The slight decrease for June and July cases may be due to "the forgotten few" whose cases are still in limbo specifically seeking out sites like Rupnet/ImmigrationPortal to see what the heck is happening. So I believe that "reversal" is statistically insignificant.
But the real worrying trend is with September and October cases. It looks like the RATE of adjudications is dropping even now. You'd expect since INS is supposed to be nearing the end of its "cleanup" at least the rate would be picking up but it's not.
Now a lot of us were expecting that once October hits ~45% that November would start like the monsoon rain. But just look at the lingering September percentage. With September still open like that, I don't think November would start even if October did hit 45%.
This has me really worried folks I don't know about you. My personal opinion is that Nov-01 approvals will take anywhere from December to February. With Dec-01 approvals going from February to April.
God help us all.