Some Approval Timeline Math (Nov waiters and beyond)

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wherezgc

Registered Users (C)
I personally think that IamShantanuB is a certified nutjob. But for once I agree with his analysis and infact think that his regular pessimism is underestimating.

Why am I even more pessimistic than the madman Shantanu? Let's do the numbers ...

At the current weekly percentage rate of approvals (less than 5 percent for a month per week) we will be lucky if they go through a given month-RD in 12 weeks. This is the optimistic time estimates, if they stick to current speeds. And conservatively they may go through just one month in 16 weeks.

So here is the agressive/optimistic timeline (12 weeks per month):

Nov01 cases: 12 weeks of approvals done by June 5, 03.
Dec01 cases: 12 weeks of approvals done by Sep 5, 03.
Jan02 cases: 12 weeks of approvals done by Dec 5, 03
Feb02 cases: 12 weeks of approvals done by March 5, 04 !!!


Isn't it f^(&ing crazy ?!

And now try doing this excercise with 16 weeks of processing per month (as is the case we saw with Oct-01, even subtracting out the 2 months of freeze when they did nothing).

The "conservative" estimate means that Feb02 RD guys will see their approvals when Euro2004 tournament is being played in June 2004.

If this is not depressing I don't know what is.

Logic says that if BCIS ever hopes to recover they must get a revolutionary jump in speeds. To clear a 16 month backlog that they have now, they must start approving one RD-month every two weeks. Even at that "light-speed" rate, it will take them 16 months to catch up with current time.

Talk about the hurdles of interstellar space travel.

Seriously though, unless these BCIS guys want to get all fired by congress, you'd think that a "revolutionary change" in processing speeds would have to be developed. Whether it's technology based or otherwise they HAVE TO do something.
 
It seems people have lots of time to do such analysis. Don't base your judgment on number of posting in this forum or rupnet statistics, they are NOT OFFFICIAL INS STATISTICS.

Keep your chins up, INS approval is like weather you never know what happens. :D
 
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Based on the rate of approvals it seems there on only 1 to 2 people assigned for 485 cases. We are having average of 3 to 4 approvals a day.
 
I have a feeling that when INS publishes its next processing time (~ March 15), the time will be changed from 10/30/01 last month to 11/01/01. One day in one month!:mad:
 
come on guys

wherezgc: do you work in the immigration department? If not, how do you know that it'll take 12 weeks meaning who told you there are 4 to 5 approvals a day? Don't be sure of stuff that you don't even know. And if you agree with Shantanu, everyone can understand how you think!!!

compaqdb: You have all the right to feel that way, but don't screw others by spreading your negative thoughts. Try to help others, if not atleast learn to shut up.

Here's the reason why!!!

There was once a lion who killed a bull and ate it and was so full that it started roaring. A hunter heard him, tracked him down and shot and killed him.

Moral: When you are full of bull, better shut up!!!
 
Originally posted by gcinjan2003
It seems people have lots of time to do such analysis. Don't base your judgment on number of posting in this forum or rupnet statistics, they are NOT OFFFICIAL INS STATISTICS.

Keep your chins up, INS approval is like weather you never know what happens. :D
Click to expand...

I agree with this argument. Less than half of the people who visit this forum might have registered at Rupnet. And a few them are updating their approvals. So it hopeless to rely on any of these numbers, except it gives you an idea of which month is getting processed currently.
 
The absolute number of approvals appering in rupnet does not tell you anything. How many people might register to use rupnet vs. not use - is also irrelevant.

I am talking about percentages within the sampled population. When you look at percentages (for a month), the couple of hundred registered waiters is more than enough of a sample to track donneness for that month. One can base their projections on how long it takes for that month to get done, because you see it.

No one is talking about the absolute number of approvals because you don't know how many total I-485 waiters are out there. Only BCIS can know that.

Awaiting Approval has said: "...who told you there are 4 to 5 approvals a day?..."

I never said anything about "4 to 5 approvals per day".

Before you tell people to shut up, read their posts carefully.
 
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Wherezgc

Originally posted by wherezgc
The absolute number of approvals appering in rupnet does not tell you anything. How many people might register to use rupnet vs. not use - is also irrelevant.

I am talking about percentages within the sampled population. When you look at percentages (for a month), the couple of hundred registered waiters is more than enough of a sample to track donneness for that month. One can base their projections on how long it takes for that month to get done, because you see it.

No one is talking about the absolute number of approvals because you don't know how many total I-485 waiters are out there. Only BCIS can know that.

Awaiting Approval has said: "...who told you there are 4 to 5 approvals a day?..."

I never said anything about "4 to 5 approvals per day".

Before you tell people to shut up, read their posts carefully.
Click to expand...

I read your post more carefully than you wrote it.

Rupnet shows 315 applications as of now for november. And according to you this will take 12 weeks(even if you consider it as sample). Which is 5.25 approvals a day!!!

Let's say the total no of applications is 10 times that in rupnet, what's the basis for you to say that it will take 12 weeks?

No matter how you look at it, you are still predicting, x no of approvals per day!!!

Ok, now let's look at your current post. You are saying you are taking a sample of 100 from how many applications? do you know? Then how do you conclude the percentage? And what if, out of your sample of 100 say out of 1000, 90 are the first ones to be approved. Then you'll say, 90% are approved whereas in reality only 9% are.
 
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I sorta agree with the initial post but

I do agree it takes so much time these days but I think everyday won't be Sunday and soon INS would realize that they are 15 yrs behind schedule if they process at current rate (with the timeline increasing by 2months for every month). I would think that soon, they would make the GC processing by INS unwanted as people stop applying for GC and INS processing age old cases for which people are no longer in the country
 
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