Shusterman EB quota outlook, very grim

L

LCSilence

Registered Users (C)
1. EB Visa Numbers Retrogress: Outlook for the Future

As we predicted in our September newsletter, the October 2005 Visa
Bulletin is very bad news for persons immigrating through employment.

The EB-3 category (professionals and skilled workers), which has been
unavailable all summer, is severely backlogged, to March 1, 2001
worldwide, with even a longer wait for persons born in China, Mexico
and especially India (over 7 years).

The EB-2 category (persons with advanced degrees and those with
exceptional ability) is current worldwide, but backlogged to May 1,
2000 for Chinese and to November 1, 1999 for Indians.

Even the EB-1 category, the Brahmin caste of priority workers, while
current worldwide, is backlogged to August 1, 2002 for persons born in
India, and to January 1, 2000 for persons born in mainland China.

* Why did the backlogs form?

U.S. immigration laws contain quotas for immigrants which are dictated
by the category in which they are immigrating and by their country of
birth.

There is a numerical cap on employment-based ("EB") immigrants of
140,000 per year (plus the 50,000 immigrant visas for Schedule A
professionals and their families, although it is important to remember
that this is not 50,000 per year, but simply a one-time allotment).
Last year, the quota was 250,000 because unused numbers from the late
1990s had been recaptured by a law passed in 2000 known as AC-21. See

http://shusterman.com/toc-h1b.html#1

These recaptured numbers were almost completely used up during the past
year. The quota reverts back to 140,000 this year (plus 8,000
recaptured EB numbers and 8,000 unused family-based numbers), a 40%
decrease in EB numbers.

So much for the supply side. The other factor which determines the
priority dates is the huge demand for EB visas.

Here, the numbers dwarf the 156,000 available slots many times over.
Consider that the numbers in the Visa Bulletin only regress as
immigrant visa petitions are approved. This means that those 348,000+
persons with pending labor certificates at DOL Backlog Elimination
Centers have not been factored into the equation. Imagine that only
two-thirds of this total will ever be approved and EB petitions
submitted on behalf of the employees. That would bring the number down
to 200,000. However, remember that the 156,000 EB quota includes not
only principal applicants but also their spouses and children. So, in
reality, the number of potential EB immigrants whose cases are
currently at the Backlog Elimination Centers will, no doubt, exceed
500,000. This could cause the EB numbers in the Visa Bulletin to
regress another 3-4 years.

And how about persons with pending EB petitions, those with pending
PERM applications, and those of you at the caboose of the train who are
simply getting ready to file PERM applications?

It's enough to make your head swim!
 
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What I don't understand is: if the majority LC pending at BEC are in 2001-2002, then I would think the priority date will stuck at 2001-2002 until congress intervene. Why shusterman would think it would push the bulletin 3-4 more years back. Because there is no pending I485 with priority date in 1994 or 1995.
 
Yes, I read that and was surprised that the outlook from such a well-known attorney was so pessimistic. Retrogression back to 1994 or so would kill off the hopes of thousands of people and would result in an exodus from the US. It would be the finall nail in the coffin.

I was looking forward to the newsletter from Shusterman for some hope. Instead I found more bad news. I have come to expect that these numbers will not progress unless Congress does something about it-and fast. Also, the only was forward seems like the passage of Kennedy-McCain bill but I am afraid that if it is taken up in the House, any relief provisions for EB workers will be dropped from the bill. And what will be passed will be a watered-down version.

Looking at the numbers above even 290K looks less. They need 500K at least. If these numbers sound too much, note that there are about 10M illegal Central and South American's in the US
 
good observation

lcsilence,
It is a good observation. probably shusterman just shoot it from his mind as this would be the his first thought. My guess is say if there are 350K cases say 2.5 people per case. so in backlog centers there are virtually about 900K cases pending. In these 900K cases about 50K pre 2000, 100K -->2000, 150K-->2001, 150K-->2002, 200K-->2003, 300K-->2004, 50K-->2005
then you can do math on how many of these are Indians and per country limits etc etc. But do you think my estimate is wrong ? people who started ther process in 2000/2001 /2002 allready got there GC except for the people who filed from NY/NJ/CA/DC/Maryland and some more places, but they should be less than 2003 and certainly less than 2004. So my take is people who started in 2003 or later are in real trouble. Please with PD in 2002 or earlier will see things clearing up in 2-3 years, but for people with 2003 and later will not see their green cards until there are some changes by the government.
 
Corrections: the majority at BEC before or around April 2001 is not EB2, they are EB3 who don't have a bachelor degree. How could these use up all the quotas for Eb1 and Eb2? Unless they enroll in school right now and get a degree.

My attorney told me that most of the (245i) filings are skeleton filings. They tried to use the benefits even they may not qualify.
 
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LCSilence said "the majority at BEC is not EB2, they are EB3 who don't have a bachelor degree."

How do you know that? I think EB2 will be at least 25-30%, EB-1 about 10-20% and the rest EB-3. Each of these is a sizable number.
 
Corrections: I mean the LCs pending before or around April 2001 are majority EB3. And I don't think many belonged to Chinese or Indians.

There are a lot of EB2 and EB1 pending but I think they are after 2001. Keep in mind a lot of EB1 and EB2 are NIW cases, no need for LCs. I wish I could get the statistics of pending LCs at BEC.
 
One factor that might turn the mountain at the BRCs into a molehill is the following: Many of the (mostly EB-3) LCs filed in 4/2001 were filed by companies that either have ceased to exist or are in no position to actually file an I140 for these workers. Many of these LCs were filed solely to lock into the 245i provisions. Nobody knows how many of these are duplicates and the only purpose they had to fulfill was to get that magic letter: 'An application for alient labor certification for the benefit of X/Y has been filed with this office on 4/29/01'
10 years from now DOL might be able to figure out how much duplicate work they did due to the 245i madness.
 
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