Shocking News EB Visa Numbers Prediction

buzzhd

Registered Users (C)
Shocking EB Visa Numbers Prediction for FY 2006 and FY 2007

The AILA has reported the FY 2006 and FY 2007 Employment-Based Visa Number predication based on the information from the State Department and the Labor Department. It is literally shocking.
The recapture number from prior employment-based visa numbers, which we reported in our Visa Retrogression Q&A, approximately 101,000 have been almost completely exhausted, and fewer unused family-based immigrant visas out of about 89,000 are available for employment-based cases. Accordingly, recapturable numbers are practically almost gone.
The visa numbers for FY 2006 and FY 2007 which have been provided by the State Department to the AILA are so stunning that one feels completely lost. See the following figures:
FY 2005--249,000 (attributable recapture from the EB unused numbers and spillovers from the family-based categories)
FY 2006--156,000 (actual number is estimated to be about 6,000 fewer than this figure!)
FY 2007--148,000
For the Worldwide EB-2 numbers, it predicts that it may remain current at least through December 31, 2005, and then may retrogress during the 2nd quarter of FY-2006 (January - March 2006). What's more, a cut-off date may be established during the 3rd (April - June 2006) or 4th quarter (July - September 2006).
India used 45,000 EB immigrant visas in all of the employment-based visa categories in FY 2005, but in FY 2006, the per-country limit in all EB categories will only be 10,700, and of that 10,700, the number available per-country in the EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 categories is projected to be only 9,180 or less.
The 245(i) cases which were filed mostly before April 31, 2001 will more or less seriously affect the pace of the visa number progression. But look at the estimate of 245(i) which is pending at the DOL. The number is staggering. There are estimated to be approximately 345,000 245(i) applications with the DOL. Without doubt, some of these applications will be denied, withdrawn or abandoned, but the prediction indicates that as many as 250,000-275,000 direct beneficiaries plus additional derivative beneficiaries of their family members (average 2.5) will move into I-140 and I-485 streams in the future.
Again, as we emphasized in our Visa Retrogression Q&A, the only solution is to push the Congress to pass the Immigration Reform legislation as soon as possible. You all should join in this force to lobby the Congress and refute the anti-immigration forces!
Are You Ready!?!?!?
 
"For the Worldwide EB-2 numbers, it predicts that it may remain current at least through December 31, 2005, and then may retrogress during the 2nd quarter of FY-2006 (January - March 2006). What's more, a cut-off date may be established during the 3rd (April - June 2006) or 4th quarter (July - September 2006)."

What does this statement mean? Can worldwide EB-2 retrogress in the second quarter without setting a priority date? Do they mean that it will be completely unavailable?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
it may retrogress during Jan-March 2006. It says "may". So for what I understand the visa may still be available during the first quarter. The cut-off date may be established during April-June 2006 or July-Sept. 2006.

It's all prediction. It is not too long till find out what's being true regarding the retrogression.
 
There is nothing we can do except sit tight and hope for the best. Personally, I'm going to learn the process of renewing my EAD and AP on my own. It seems like I will need it for many years to come :D
 
Mr. Green said:
There is nothing we can do except sit tight and hope for the best. Personally, I'm going to learn the process of renewing my EAD and AP on my own. It seems like I will need it for many years to come :D

yeah, not too bad learning all the stuff that I have no idea before, espcially renewing this EAD over the Internet. Yeah, how many EADs have I got so far, 3, wow.

Having been through all these, I could then be a professional immigration consultant :)

It's too bad that we couldn't get the EAD with at least 2 or 3 years period instead of just one single year and keep renewing for $180 bucks.

Gonna get a rocking chair and relax myself :D
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm curious to know what how much/long retrogression there would be for EB-2. A couple of years?? Or more???
 
bjorn said:
I'm curious to know what how much/long retrogression there would be for EB-2. A couple of years?? Or more???

Interesting question indeed. I would speculate it is going to be less than that for EB-2 India or even Mexico. But if you look in the time history of EB2 priority dates, this will be unprecedented. Never before EB2 for countries other than: India, China, Mexico, Philippines retrogressed.

Another factor to consider is that since the beginning of PERM most approvals are in EB2, so this is going to be pretty serious bottleneck here time-wise.

Concerning amnesty cases 245(i) with 2001 priority date. I do not think that there are many EB2 will be coming from this line .
 
You know, if your name is stuck in name check for 1-2 years like many are, retrogression a couple of years does not make a difference then as you are waiting for your name to be cleard by the FBI anyways.
 
buzzhd said:
FY 2006--156,000 (actual number is estimated to be about 6,000 fewer than this figure!)
FY 2007--148,000

but the prediction indicates that as many as 250,000-275,000 direct beneficiaries plus additional derivative beneficiaries of their family members (average 2.5) will move into I-140 and I-485 streams in the future.

IF THIS IS ALL TRUE, a simple math will show that it will be 2010 before these cases are finished (625,000 visas for direct and deirvative applicants combined). :mad:

This would mean that applicants whose LC took the longest would get processed first for their I485? Those of us whose LC didn't take as long would be thrown to the backburner. Is that fair?
 
bjorn said:
You know, if your name is stuck in name check for 1-2 years like many are, retrogression a couple of years does not make a difference then as you are waiting for your name to be cleard by the FBI anyways.

There is a difference. I am not trying to scare you, but every one from the list of security checks has it's own expiration date. Imagine that a person went through long string of security checks and now is stuck in retrogression. Ultimately, there is a time point when the earliest security check results begin to expire. Then, they start EVERY CHECK over again, one by one. It looks like an endless damn circle that may take years to complete. This current system is a complete failure, and the victims of it are LEGAL immigrants.
Now let me take my antidepressant pill :D
 
Gpng_dl said:
There is a difference. I am not trying to scare you, but every one from the list of security checks has it's own expiration date. Imagine that a person went through long string of security checks and now is stuck in retrogression. Ultimately, there is a time point when the earliest security check results begin to expire. Then, they start EVERY CHECK over again, one by one. It looks like an endless damn circle that may take years to complete. This current system is a complete failure, and the victims of it are LEGAL immigrants.
Now let me take my antidepressant pill :D

But as I understand it usually takes one to couple of months to do the name check for the second time if your first name check expires or at least a lot faster than first time name check process. You don't have to stay in the quene like first time because your name is already in the database, although I can't confirm this and neither do I understand the process of name check by FBI.

If it really works like you said, then those unlucky persons may have to wait for many years before they can see pinky card. :confused:
 
buzzhd said:
But as I understand it usually takes one to couple of months to do the name check for the second time if your first name check expires or at least a lot faster than first time name check process. You don't have to stay in the quene like first time because your name is already in the database, although I can't confirm this and neither do I understand the process of name check by FBI.

If it really works like you said, then those unlucky persons may have to wait for many years before they can see pinky card. :confused:

I really hope that the system works (or will work in the nearest future) more efficiently than I imagine it.
I understand that FBI also looks for similar names that may exist in ALL their files (either electronic or paper). Now, if you think about many new FBI files that start every day with many new names that were not in the system before... you got my idea. So, each new name check with the FBI teoretically can produce a new "hit" which will require months or years to clear. Fortunately, their new files are supposed to be all electronic, so here comes a hope that the clearance will indeed come much faster (days not months/years).
 
So, if you have a shorter easier name, you would go through the system faster? Or is it the other way? I guess it depends on whether they do exact match or partial match?

For example, if your name is "Si Ka", is your name going to be compared to Tsi Kah, Sinh Kahi, Minsi Tika, etc??
 
the name check results are not stored so if they have to do it again then the process gets repeated and it is true that all the checks have expiry date. Yo ucan run the risk of running around in circles is what the officer told me when i went to inquire.
 
so let's say GC process takes 5 years and name check expires in 15 months, so we are now talking about name check process has to repeat 4 times at least. If 4 millions applicants are waiting for the name check each one has to repeat the process 4 times, you do math... :mad:
 
buzzhd said:
so let's say GC process takes 5 years and name check expires in 15 months, so we are now talking about name check process has to repeat 4 times at least. If 4 millions applicants are waiting for the name check each one has to repeat the process 4 times, you do math... :mad:

Quoting a favorite from "trolls" who post on Yahoo! news message boards,


I'M SHAKING MY I-485 RECEIPT IN ANGER! :D


PS. See, my antidepressant works! I am still able to joke :D
 
Gpng_dl said:
Quoting a favorite from "trolls" who post on Yahoo! news message boards,


I'M SHAKING MY I-485 RECEIPT IN ANGER! :D


PS. See, my antidepressant works! I am still able to joke :D

good attitude :)
 
Top