Senate Immigration reform Schedule -- Thursday April 27, 2006

[kamrans]

Source immigration-law.com. Full details are below:

04/19/2006: Senate Comprehensive Immigration Reform Schedule - Thursday, April 27, 2006?

The Senate reconvenes on next Monday, April 24, and the House reconvenes on Tuesday April 25. Unconfirmed sources indicate that on April 27, 2006, Thursday, the Senators will try to revive the comprehensive immigration reform which the Senate failed to pass before the Easter break. No details have been made available about as yet. Please stay tuned to this web site for the development of this news.
Next two weeks will determine the fate of comprehensive immigration reform, probably for the rest of the year.

 

[saras76]

I hope there is more to it than talk ..

Source immigration-law.com. Full details are below:

04/19/2006: Senate Comprehensive Immigration Reform Schedule - Thursday, April 27, 2006?

The Senate reconvenes on next Monday, April 24, and the House reconvenes on Tuesday April 25. Unconfirmed sources indicate that on April 27, 2006, Thursday, the Senators will try to revive the comprehensive immigration reform which the Senate failed to pass before the Easter break. No details have been made available about as yet. Please stay tuned to this web site for the development of this news.
Next two weeks will determine the fate of comprehensive immigration reform, probably for the rest of the year.

kamrans,

I sincerely hope they work out some sort of bill that will have half chance of becoming law. Not only does this bill have to pass the Senate, it has to get through the House. If the Senate is having such a hard time with this bill, I am not sure how the House will stomach it. From a purely political perspective, the Senate has no choice but to take up this issue again. The wide spread demonstrations sent a clear signal that the Latino community is united and that they are paying close attention to this immigration reform bill. The politicians realize that it will be total political suicide to ignore this issue at this point. However, taking up the bill under political pressure and discussing is different from working towards putting together a good bill that will pass. I am of the opinion that all this is being done for show right now. During these debates we will most likely see a renewal of the blame game where each party will try to shift the blame onto the other. In the end nothing might happen. All I am saying is that we should not pin our hopes on this one just yet.

regards,

saras

 

[marlon2006]

All the information I hear on talk shows is that not the Latino community is united - my perception is that the majority of legal Latinos are against granting any type of legalization to illegal aliens as well. I think the only thing the marches have shown is that immigration aliens are united, and obviously the business behind them. Not sure how relevant that it is though.

The bottom line is that I wish us good luck, but I won't get excited because the house reps already told many times:nothing that looks like an amnesty will pass the house.

wide spread demonstrations sent a clear signal that the Latino community is united and that they are paying close attention to this immigration reform bill. The politicians realize that it will be total political suicide to ignore this issue at this point. However, taking up the bill under political pressure and discussing is different from working towards putting together a good bill that will pass. I am of the opinion that all this is being done for show right now. During these debates we will most likely see a renewal of the blame game where each party will try to shift the blame onto the other. In the end nothing might happen. All I am saying is that we should not pin our hopes on this one just yet.

regards,

saras[/QUOTE]

 

[ufo2002]

I wouldn't think it will be political suicide for the Senate to ignore the CIR bill. When the November elections roll around, who knows what the voters would be thinking. If the CIR passes, the voting results might just turn out bad for those Senators who supported the bill. Recent polls taken on the issue of immigration has pretty much shown that the country is about evenly divided between allowing more immigrants into the country vs. more enforcement and immigration reduction.

 

[saras76]

True ...

All the information I hear on talk shows is that not the Latino community is united - my perception is that the majority of legal Latinos are against granting any type of legalization to illegal aliens as well. I think the only thing the marches have shown is that immigration aliens are united, and obviously the business behind them. Not sure how relevant that it is though.

The bottom line is that I wish us good luck, but I won't get excited because the house reps already told many times:nothing that looks like an amnesty will pass the house.

wide spread demonstrations sent a clear signal that the Latino community is united and that they are paying close attention to this immigration reform bill. The politicians realize that it will be total political suicide to ignore this issue at this point. However, taking up the bill under political pressure and discussing is different from working towards putting together a good bill that will pass. I am of the opinion that all this is being done for show right now. During these debates we will most likely see a renewal of the blame game where each party will try to shift the blame onto the other. In the end nothing might happen. All I am saying is that we should not pin our hopes on this one just yet.

regards,

saras

[/QUOTE]

marlon,

The majority of the legal Latino community is defenitely against amnesty but like everyone else they are not being heard. Also, I would not believe everything on talk shows. They are very very biased. I do not buy the arguement that all of them are against amnesty. I am sure there is a decent chunk that does not mind amnesty.

Right now, the only crowd that is being heard are the illegals aliens and their unions. A crowd of 11 million people that may become potential vote banks in the future presents a huge opportunity for both political parties. Neither the dems or the reps want this issue to snowball into a racial divide. Think about it, so long as this debate is limited to amnesty for illegals, things will be relatively calm. If this issue turns into Latinos deserving amnesty and white politicans being unfair towards them, you will find enough legal Lations on the side of their own race. Its human nature. I would do the same ... personal issues such as legal/illegal, high paying job/low paying job go out the window when a community as a whole feels racially attacked. That is my personal thinking.

regards,

saras

 

[saras76]

You are thinking short term my friend ..

I wouldn't think it will be political suicide for the Senate to ignore the CIR bill. When the November elections roll around, who knows what the voters would be thinking. If the CIR passes, the voting results might just turn out bad for those Senators who supported the bill. Recent polls taken on the issue of immigration has pretty much shown that the country is about evenly divided between allowing more immigrants into the country vs. more enforcement and immigration reduction.

ufo2002,

I think the politicians are more worried about the future of their parties. There is no doubt that this year, everything will be geared towards the mid years in Novemeber but lets not be naive by thinking that both parties are not looking at potential vote banks in 5-10 years from now. From that perspective it will be political suicide for the party that is tagged with being the one that destroyed the bill and helped pass a bill that made criminals out of immigrants. Politicians do not care about what actually happens to immigrants, they care about the image. Right now the whole debate will be centered around building an image of compassion while still worrying about National Security. Both parties want to be seen that way. None of the parties are acutally interested in a workable immigration reform bill.

regards,

saras

 

[marlon2006]

Polls are everywhere

One thing that I've noticed so far, is that you can find polls showing that the majority of Americans support such legalization very easily at laraza.com or from open border media. Then you go to cnn.com and see the result of other independent polls showing the opposite. Numbersusa has a vast array of polls and studies taken along many years. I believe those are more solid. Personally the way I use to gauge this is by talking to American friends about this, and the majority of my relatively small sample poll is that most are against such legalization of illegal aliens. Radio talk shows are the other side of what the marches have shown. It is as biased as the marches are, but the difference is that that's the opinion from constituents.

You are right, judging by what we have witnessed so far, most lawmakers in the Senate are definitely not listening to the American public. We could benefit from that. The House of Representatives are under pressure from groups such as numbersusa and many others to kill amnesty related bills there though. Good luck to us all.




marlon,

The majority of the legal Latino community is defenitely against amnesty but like everyone else they are not being heard. Also, I would not believe everything on talk shows. They are very very biased. I do not buy the arguement that all of them are against amnesty. I am sure there is a decent chunk that does not mind amnesty.

Right now, the only crowd that is being heard are the illegals aliens and their unions. A crowd of 11 million people that may become potential vote banks in the future presents a huge opportunity for both political parties. Neither the dems or the reps want this issue to snowball into a racial divide. Think about it, so long as this debate is limited to amnesty for illegals, things will be relatively calm. If this issue turns into Latinos getting amnesty and white politicans being unfair, you will find enough legal Lations on the side of their own race. Its human nature. I would do the same ... personal issues such as legal/illegal, high paying job/low paying job go out the window when a community as a whole feels racially attacked. That is my personal thinking.

regards,

saras[/QUOTE]

 

[ufo2002]

Yeah, I agree on that political thinking. Which politician wouldn't want more votes for either themselves or their party 20 years from now. This is assuming that the 13 million illegals become citizens, breed millions more citizens who will stay loyal to the party that got them the amnesty... man, you are talking about breeding out the other voters who don't want amnesty or any CIR-type bill...
Statistics from the 2004 presidential elections showed that the Latino voter demographic was too small to even be a factor in deciding who the winner would be.

I think the politicians are more worried about the future of their parties. There is no doubt that this year, everything will be geared towards the mid years in Novemeber but lets not be naive by thinking that both parties are not looking at potential vote banks in 5-10 years from now. From that perspective it will be political suicide for the party that is tagged with being the one that destroyed the bill and helped pass a bill that made criminals out of immigrants. Politicians do not care about what actually happens to immigrants, they care about the image. Right now the whole debate will be centered around building an image of compassion while still worrying about National Security. Both parties want to be seen that way. None of the parties are acutally interested in a workable immigration reform bill.

 

[atl_fp]

There is still hope

Regarding the house:

Many house hard liners claimed that it won't pass the house, this is not necessary true --- if they were so sure, they didn't need to theat so loudly. Their real intention is to discourage people who support it and kill the plan before it forms.

It is possible for the house to pass such a bill because a simple majority is sufficient in the house. Most democrats will back this bill, as long as they can get some republicans on board, they will be able to pass. The real danger in the house is the republican leaderships, with John Boehner and some others who will be in the conference. They will try to strip guest worker off, but then it will get back to Senate again and back and forth. Since the border security issue is a very high priority issue, not passing anything would be a huge political fall out for them. Once Senate finishes the bill, the House will be put into the same position as the Senate now --- they will have no choice but to take on the bill since their own felony version is already very unpopular. So regarless how it goes, they will definitely try to work out something.

Regarding the poll:

Poll is only one factor that politican considers. A lot of people simply votes "R" and "D", many of them has some sort of principles that pushes them towards their side. And immigration is only one of many issues they take. While the poll may shows that only 40% percent of Americans favors guest worker program, it's not to say that they are going to lose those voters if they voted for it. They may lose some vote, but the question is how much. Immigration is life and death for Latinos, but certainly not as much high for Americans. So if you please one Latinos, you can get one vote, but even if you voted against 10 American's will on this issue, maybe only one will ditch you because of this, first because even the issue is important for American, it not as important for the latinos; second there are other reasons that American voted for their politicans, such as people who believe small governent will vote for republican's regardless how their republican representive pissed them off because they believe put the power into dem's hands will only be much worse. So the whole game is how much to lose and how much to gain. In the end you may gain more vote by pleasing Latinos.

kamrans,

I sincerely hope they work out some sort of bill that will have half chance of becoming law. Not only does this bill have to pass the Senate, it has to get through the House. If the Senate is having such a hard time with this bill, I am not sure how the House will stomach it. From a purely political perspective, the Senate has no choice but to take up this issue again. The wide spread demonstrations sent a clear signal that the Latino community is united and that they are paying close attention to this immigration reform bill. The politicians realize that it will be total political suicide to ignore this issue at this point. However, taking up the bill under political pressure and discussing is different from working towards putting together a good bill that will pass. I am of the opinion that all this is being done for show right now. During these debates we will most likely see a renewal of the blame game where each party will try to shift the blame onto the other. In the end nothing might happen. All I am saying is that we should not pin our hopes on this one just yet.

regards,

saras

 

[bear23]

No one is interested in passing any kind of immigration reform bill. The situation as-is is the most favourable for everyone except us the legal immigrants (or non-immigrants for people like me still on H-1).

Businesses will take the situation as-is and continue employing low wage employees. Works out the best for them. In case of no bill, no harm to businesses employing illegals.

Illegal employees will take the as-is situation over the house version of the bill, so they continue working and not paying taxes.

Politicians will decide on the pros and cons of passing or not passing the bill. They will come to the same conclusion that the situation as is works out best where both parties can blame the other one without alienating a lot of voters.

 

[saras76]

Yes .. very likely ..

No one is interested in passing any kind of immigration reform bill. The situation as-is is the most favourable for everyone except us the legal immigrants (or non-immigrants for people like me still on H-1).

Businesses will take the situation as-is and continue employing low wage employees. Works out the best for them. In case of no bill, no harm to businesses employing illegals.

Illegal employees will take the as-is situation over the house version of the bill, so they continue working and not paying taxes.

Politicians will decide on the pros and cons of passing or not passing the bill. They will come to the same conclusion that the situation as is works out best where both parties can blame the other one without alienating a lot of voters.

bear23,

At this point I tend to agree more with you. I have the exact same feelings. Lets just hope we are both wrong.

regards,

saras