Found this at another lawyer website as to why this is the likely case. don't know if this is already posted elsewhere..
* Why did the backlogs form?
U.S. immigration laws contain quotas for immigrants which are dictated by the category in which they are immigrating and by their country of birth.
There is a numerical cap on employment-based ("EB") immigrants of 140,000 per year (plus the 50,000 immigrant visas for Schedule A professionals and their families, although it is important to remember that this is not 50,000 per year, but simply a one-time allotment). Last year, the quota was 250,000 because unused numbers from the late 1990s had been recaptured by a law passed in 2000 known as AC-21. See
These recaptured numbers were almost completely used up during the past year. The quota reverts back to 140,000 this year (plus 8,000 recaptured EB numbers and 8,000 unused family-based numbers), a 40% decrease in EB numbers.
So much for the supply side. The other factor which determines the priority dates is the huge demand for EB visas.
Here, the numbers dwarf the 156,000 available slots many times over. Consider that the numbers in the Visa Bulletin only regress as immigrant visa petitions are approved. This means that those 348,000+ persons with pending labor certificates at DOL Backlog Elimination Centers have not been factored into the equation. Imagine that only two-thirds of this total will ever be approved and EB petitions submitted on behalf of the employees. That would bring the number down to 200,000. However, remember that the 156,000 EB quota includes not only principal applicants but also their spouses and children. So, in reality, the number of potential EB immigrants whose cases are currently at the Backlog Elimination Centers will, no doubt, exceed 500,000. This could cause the EB numbers in the Visa Bulletin to regress another 3-4 years.
And how about persons with pending EB petitions, those with pending PERM applications, and those of you at the caboose of the train who are simply getting ready to file PERM applications?
It's enough to make your head swim!
* What is the Outlook for the Future?
If you ever took Economics 101 in college, you know that as the supply diminishes, and the demand increases, the price of the commodity rises.
When calculating what future Visa Bulletins may look like, it may be useful to think of the rise in the price of oil during the past few months. As the economies of developing countries continue to expand, the demand for oil rises. In developed countries, especially the U.S., demand for gas guzzling SUVs and trucks may be dropping, but owners of these vehicles are not driving them to the junk yards and trashing them immediately.
At least in the case of oil, increased prices spur more exploration which increases the supply. Since the number of EB visa numbers available is, on the other hand, purely an artificial construct, a huge increase in demand does not necessarily result in an increased supply of visas.
One additional analogy to oil is apt. What about alternative fuels like natural gas, coal, solar energy, etc.? The United States is not necessarily the only country of destination for skilled professionals. Given the huge visa backlogs, scientists and engineers and computer professionals choose alternatives to the U.S. and go to Europe, Canada or Australia, or perhaps to countries like Iran.
Unless Congress acts to increase the EB quotas, the backlogs are certain to lengthen rather than diminish. Look for the worldwide EB-3 category to retrogress further during this fiscal year or even become unavailable, and for the worldwide EB-2 category to backlog.
The State Department, in its notes to the October 2005 Visa Bulletin, puts it in a more diplomatic language:
"Item D in the Visa Bulletin (number 85) announcing the September cut- off dates provided information regarding the prospects of visa availability during the early months of FY-2006. Many categories have become oversubscribed for October, and cut-off dates established due to continued heavy demand for numbers by CIS for adjustment of status cases. Forward movement of the cut-off dates in these categories is likely to be limited."
* Why did the backlogs form?
U.S. immigration laws contain quotas for immigrants which are dictated by the category in which they are immigrating and by their country of birth.
There is a numerical cap on employment-based ("EB") immigrants of 140,000 per year (plus the 50,000 immigrant visas for Schedule A professionals and their families, although it is important to remember that this is not 50,000 per year, but simply a one-time allotment). Last year, the quota was 250,000 because unused numbers from the late 1990s had been recaptured by a law passed in 2000 known as AC-21. See
These recaptured numbers were almost completely used up during the past year. The quota reverts back to 140,000 this year (plus 8,000 recaptured EB numbers and 8,000 unused family-based numbers), a 40% decrease in EB numbers.
So much for the supply side. The other factor which determines the priority dates is the huge demand for EB visas.
Here, the numbers dwarf the 156,000 available slots many times over. Consider that the numbers in the Visa Bulletin only regress as immigrant visa petitions are approved. This means that those 348,000+ persons with pending labor certificates at DOL Backlog Elimination Centers have not been factored into the equation. Imagine that only two-thirds of this total will ever be approved and EB petitions submitted on behalf of the employees. That would bring the number down to 200,000. However, remember that the 156,000 EB quota includes not only principal applicants but also their spouses and children. So, in reality, the number of potential EB immigrants whose cases are currently at the Backlog Elimination Centers will, no doubt, exceed 500,000. This could cause the EB numbers in the Visa Bulletin to regress another 3-4 years.
And how about persons with pending EB petitions, those with pending PERM applications, and those of you at the caboose of the train who are simply getting ready to file PERM applications?
It's enough to make your head swim!
* What is the Outlook for the Future?
If you ever took Economics 101 in college, you know that as the supply diminishes, and the demand increases, the price of the commodity rises.
When calculating what future Visa Bulletins may look like, it may be useful to think of the rise in the price of oil during the past few months. As the economies of developing countries continue to expand, the demand for oil rises. In developed countries, especially the U.S., demand for gas guzzling SUVs and trucks may be dropping, but owners of these vehicles are not driving them to the junk yards and trashing them immediately.
At least in the case of oil, increased prices spur more exploration which increases the supply. Since the number of EB visa numbers available is, on the other hand, purely an artificial construct, a huge increase in demand does not necessarily result in an increased supply of visas.
One additional analogy to oil is apt. What about alternative fuels like natural gas, coal, solar energy, etc.? The United States is not necessarily the only country of destination for skilled professionals. Given the huge visa backlogs, scientists and engineers and computer professionals choose alternatives to the U.S. and go to Europe, Canada or Australia, or perhaps to countries like Iran.
Unless Congress acts to increase the EB quotas, the backlogs are certain to lengthen rather than diminish. Look for the worldwide EB-3 category to retrogress further during this fiscal year or even become unavailable, and for the worldwide EB-2 category to backlog.
The State Department, in its notes to the October 2005 Visa Bulletin, puts it in a more diplomatic language:
"Item D in the Visa Bulletin (number 85) announcing the September cut- off dates provided information regarding the prospects of visa availability during the early months of FY-2006. Many categories have become oversubscribed for October, and cut-off dates established due to continued heavy demand for numbers by CIS for adjustment of status cases. Forward movement of the cut-off dates in these categories is likely to be limited."