Retrogression: Doing the MATH- I-485 EB backlog estimates

Excel

Berkeleybee

My Excel is in my first posting.

In that sheet, I am NOT using BECs numbers. I have calculated how I-485 backlog may have reduced since Jan 2005, using the likely additions using monthly statistics and processing speed for FY 2005.

You do have a point, BECs approvals have been much lower.

So, we all agree demand (due to BECs churning out labor) is very low and mathematical basis for retrogression does not exists.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
Second thoughts!!!

Guys and Gals

I am having secoind thoughts on mathematical bases for retrogression - may be there is a basis.

See my post on EB3, something on June Visa Bulletin thread caused me to look at my original backlog calculations, which I had posted in "Retrogression-doing the Math 2" thread.

Here is my post in the June Visa Bulletin thread (see below) - it indicates mathematically Eb3 - India could be stuck for over 11 years.

I hope my calculations are wrong.

====================================

Some more numbers

In "Retrogression - doing the Math 2" thread, I had done some calculations, where I had tried to break-down the backlog in terms at the labor stage, at I-140 and I-485 stage .

The excel is attached.

1) What I have found (doing manual optimization) is that 75% of all GC cases from 2000, 2001 and 2002 had their labor approved (calculations for India only).
2) only 44,954 cases (principals only) could be pending from year 2000 and 2001 (entire) for labor (from the pool of H-1B and L-1 beneficiaries)


Assuming 71% to be EB3, it means 31,917 EB3 cases pending and at the rate of 2,800 per year, we are looking at 11.4 years !!!!!

Unless the overflow from FB based makes EB1/2 current or some legislation changes, EB3 will suffer for years.

===============================================

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
Dependants ?

gcstrat said:
Berkeleybee

My Excel is in my first posting.

In that sheet, I am NOT using BECs numbers. I have calculated how I-485 backlog may have reduced since Jan 2005, using the likely additions using monthly statistics and processing speed for FY 2005.

You do have a point, BECs approvals have been much lower.

So, we all agree demand (due to BECs churning out labor) is very low and mathematical basis for retrogression does not exists.

Regards
GCStrat :)
Click to expand...


gcstrat,

Couple of things came to my mind from your analysis:

1. I think we need to multiply this number of 3333 by 2 or something to include the dependents for demand from BEC approvals.

2. The ratio of 46% approvals may increase as we approach the more recent years.

But as of now, there does not seem to be a reason for such a big retrogression as pointed out by you.

3. Do you know out of the 250K or so remaining at the BEC's how many are actually non 245i cases?
 
There is defenitely a reason ..

Guys and Gals,

The USCIS gave away visa numbers in a totally random fashion when PDs were current. Thats the main reason for this retrogression. The only way out is favorable immigration reform.

regards,

saras76
 
EB2 Prediction for India

Guys,

Any thoughts on how the dates will progress for EB2 India in coming months ...

Regards.
 
USCIS statistic for EB approvals in 2004

GCStrat
Here is an extract from USCIS statistics for EB approvals in 2004
Approvals EB1 EB2 EB3 EB other Total EB AOS
Year 2004 31291 32534 85969 5536 155330 128238
% 20.14 20.95 55.35
Principals 13287 15877 41289
Dependents 18004 16657 44680
Dependent/principal1.36 1.05 1.08

Employment Based India 38443 (about 25%)
Can you please finetune your spreadsheet based on these numbers?

http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/yearbook/Yearbook2004.pdf
 
Last edited by a moderator:
some more thoughts

Dallas03096

Which spreadsheet you want me to update?

I-485 spreadsheet start with January 2005. This is because we have a BACKLOG number from the President's State of Economy report. This means, whateve happened in 2004, had been factored in that backlog number.

My other spreadsheet i.e. original backlog calculations for India, focussed only on India and expanding that to all countries became a calculations and assumptions nightmare. The 2004 EB numbers for India have been factored in those calculations.

Hope this helps

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
Some inputs for finetuning

gcstrat said:
Dallas03096

Which spreadsheet you want me to update?

I-485 spreadsheet start with January 2005. This is because we have a BACKLOG number from the President's State of Economy report. This means, whateve happened in 2004, had been factored in that backlog number.

Hope this helps

Regards
GCStrat :)
Click to expand...

I meant finetuning I-485 spreadsheet.
Here are some of my thoughts:
EB historical proportions from 2000 to 2004:
EB Category Year 2004 5 years average 3 years average
EB1 .......... 0.201 0.214 0.192
EB2 .......... 0.201 0.216 0.217
EB3 .......... 0.554 0.514 0.542
Your figures are closer to the 3 years average for years 2002 - 2004. I thought it would be better to finetune using the proportions from year 2004.
This may not make much difference to your calculations.

EB3 visas became unavailable from July 2005. So I think the monthly rate of approvals from July '05 to Sept '05 would have dropped to about 40% of the normal monthly average for FY2005 (since the approvals were only for EB1 and EB2).
The rate of approval in FY2005 were higher because of the recaptured visas.
For FY2006, it would be equal to the quota 140,000 per year (which is close the 5 year average from 2000 to 2004). Since the retrogression had set in, I would expect the approvals to have been about 6000 per month (about 50% of the normal average).

Do you think this would be more realistic?
 
The number would revised upwards

Dallas03096

If I use the average rate of processing to be 140,000/12 against the FY 2005 rate for months after October 2005, the pending i.e. backlog I-485 numbers as og March 2006 increase to 184K+ (an increase of about 40K).

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
Thanks for updated numbers

gcstrat said:
Dallas03096

If I use the average rate of processing to be 140,000/12 against the FY 2005 rate for months after October 2005, the pending i.e. backlog I-485 numbers as og March 2006 increase to 184K+ (an increase of about 40K).

Regards
GCStrat :)
Click to expand...
Thanks for the updated numbers. This checks very well with the calculation below:
At end of Jan'06, the number of pending I-485 (FB + EB) = 813,270
If we assume the proportion of EB = 0.243 (same as Jan'05)
backlog of Employment Based I-485 at end of Jan'06 = 197,625
This means USCIS has not achieved any backlog reduction in EB category inspite of retrogression :(
 
For Professional and skilled worker shares the same EB-3 Visa number, it is very necessary to know how many people are there in EB-3 in USCIS as well as Backlog centre.
The retrogression is mainly because of the prediction of DOL regarding the approvals of 245(i) people which is before April, 2001.

100% people who applied under 245(i) are skilled worker plus other worker.
Let for an example 200,000 Labor is in the backlog (DOL) under 245(i) protection.

Out of this 200,000, 175,000 may be Other worker and only 25,000 will be Skilled worker who shares EB-3.
Keep in mind that 245(i) was the only protection at that to get legalized, so no matter whether they apply on EB-3( Skilled worker) or Other worker do not matter. Keep in mind that Skilled worker you need to show a good payment where as in Other worker you need minimum labor wages. So there is a possibility that all 245(i) can be other worker.
When you calculater the retrogression, it is very important to know this info.
Can anyone share comment on this?
 
A lot of speculation

bijualex said:
For Professional and skilled worker shares the same EB-3 Visa number, it is very necessary to know how many people are there in EB-3 in USCIS as well as Backlog centre.
The retrogression is mainly because of the prediction of DOL regarding the approvals of 245(i) people which is before April, 2001.

100% people who applied under 245(i) are skilled worker plus other worker.
Let for an example 200,000 Labor is in the backlog (DOL) under 245(i) protection.

Out of this 200,000, 175,000 may be Other worker and only 25,000 will be Skilled worker who shares EB-3.
Keep in mind that 245(i) was the only protection at that to get legalized, so no matter whether they apply on EB-3( Skilled worker) or Other worker do not matter. Keep in mind that Skilled worker you need to show a good payment where as in Other worker you need minimum labor wages. So there is a possibility that all 245(i) can be other worker.
When you calculater the retrogression, it is very important to know this info.
Can anyone share comment on this?
Click to expand...

bijualex,

You make some very valid points. The bottom line with these "245i" cases is that no one really knows exactly how many fall under skilled and how many under other. You will find good arguements on either side. Also there is no way to really break down the per country count within 245is.

One thing is for sure, the virtual halt of EB3 around April 01 right now is based more on speculation from the DOS than acutal demand. Most of the 245is are still stuck in BECs so there is now way they are already flooding the system.

My own theory is that DOS is patiently waiting for the number of 245is to increase from month to month and hence are not moving the dates beyond May. In this case there are only two possibilities, 245is actually do start flooding the system and visas get quickly depleted. In this case the retro might become worse before OCT 06. We might see a few categories become unavailable following upto Oct 06. The other scenario is that the BECs do not get the 245is approved in large numbers. If this continues into July-August and the DOS realizes that there are still a lot of visas left unused in EB3 there is an outside chance that the PDs may progress towards the end of 2001 or maybe even 2002. I think there is only a slight chance of this happening.

Again, everything related with 245i is based on pure spculation. The DOS itself has very little clue about the exact number and projected demand so how can one of us accurately predict any of this? Its just impossible. Some guesses are better than others but we are all taking a shot in the dark.

regards,

saras76
 
EB3 interviews at Indian consulates

I am attaching Excel sheet with number of EB3 interviews scehduled at 3 indian consulates. I do not have data for months of November - January. If any one is tracking CP interviews please update the Excel sheet attached. We have no way of knowing how many EB3 cases have been approved so far at USCIS offices. This sheet may give some idea. The total number of EB3 cases approved seems to be less than 200 at the 3 consulates. My guess.

-Thanks
 
saras76 said:
bijualex,

The other scenario is that the BECs do not get the 245is approved in large numbers. If this continues into July-August and the DOS realizes that there are still a lot of visas left unused in EB3 there is an outside chance that the PDs may progress towards the end of 2001 or maybe even 2002. I think there is only a slight chance of this happening.

saras76
Click to expand...

This is a more realisitic scenario looking at what they are doing currently.
However I am 110% sure that they wont bother about the Visa Numbers getting unused.
The Visa Numner betting wasted is not the priority.. The priority curently is to clean up the house and only approve cases before May 2001. Until they are done with they wont bother about Visa's getting wasted.

The USCIS is probably facing a lawsuit for approving later PD applications and therefore dont want to mess up anymore and saving their skin.

neo
 
i would bet most of the EB3 interviews were from applicants who used lab sub. to get that PD.

HBG2001 said:
I am attaching Excel sheet with number of EB3 interviews scehduled at 3 indian consulates. I do not have data for months of November - January. If any one is tracking CP interviews please update the Excel sheet attached. We have no way of knowing how many EB3 cases have been approved so far at USCIS offices. This sheet may give some idea. The total number of EB3 cases approved seems to be less than 200 at the 3 consulates. My guess.

-Thanks
Click to expand...
 
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