Retrogression - By the numbers

msh626

Registered Users (C)
By the numbers...

Number of Labor App's pending in BEC's = 300K+ for years(March 28, 2005 and prior)
Assuming 33% each for Chinese and Indians = 100,000
Multiply by number of dependents = 100K * 2.13 = 213000
(Budget Relief bill says provision of spouse and other dependents not being counted against primary I-485 applicant is only from October 1,
2004 i.e. FY 2005)

Number of EB visas/GC's available starting FY2006(October 01, 2005) for India and China = 12000 + 12000 = 24000
(Source DOS's Mr. Charles Oppenheim)
Assuming Budget Relief bill goes thru, 90000 GC's available for ALL countries.
Assume India and China get 6300 (7% of 90000) each, not counting spillover's which are likely to be small.

Hence, total available for India(and China) in FY 2006 = 12000 + 6300 = 18300
Total number pending in backlog elimination center = 213000.

NOTE BEGINS:
1: I don't see how this is going to help. I have a done a very simplistic calculation avoiding complex situations
like how to allocate **current** FY2006 GC's? One for each _person_(includes dependents) or one for
each _primary_ application? I don't even want to do that.

2: Neither have I broken down into individual EB's, because looking at the above numbers, there is no point.
NOTE ENDS:

Similarly, even if McCain-Kennedy passes - as is(fool's paradise!), the benefits will be minimal for two reasons.
1: Too many people from India and China.
2: Per-country limit. (Even if it is adjusted to 10% from 7%, it won't make much of a difference.)

So what is the solution?
-----------------------------

Only the following will help
1: Pass Chuck Hagel's bill. Allows "high-tech" workers to adjust sttaus after working for 3 years without regard to
quota. (This bill is most sensible if you ask me; there are four actually).
On the flip side, Bush and Hagel are not-so-good friends however. BTW, is Mr.Hagel a Democart?
--------
A: For H-1B
To address the need for high-tech workers and to reduce the existing worker visa backlog,
this bill would allow foreign students who have earned an advanced degree in science,
technology, engineering or math from U.S. universities to receive an H-1B visa without
leaving the country and without regard to the annual cap of 65,000.

B: For GC
In addition, high-tech workers who have worked in the U.S. for 3 years would be allowed
to adjust to permanent resident status without regard to the annual employment-based
immigrant visa cap of 140,000. The spouses and children of immigrant workers would also be
allowed to adjust status without regard to this cap.
---------

2: Remove per-country limits.
3: Increase EB visas to about 500K or more.

IMHO, neither of the above will happen. The best would be to have the above two clauses,
1A and 1B inserted in the "comprehensive" immigration reform that will be passed next year.
These two clauses by themselves would take away a lot of pain. Think about it.


SUMMARY
---------
Of course, what I seriously hope is for someone to point out a serious flaw in my computation above.
I have seen many posts with calculations et al. So those people, "infostarved" and other
"gurus", can someone comment...

If you have read Shusterman's immigration update newsletter for Novbermber 2005, Charlie
Oppenheim predicts little forward movement in EB categories till September 2006. More fun?
By the time September 2006 comes around, BEC's will be processing Labor apps in full swing
and all PERM applicant's will be way at the back. Bottom Line: We are screwed.
So how did this problem start? Remember when they increased 65K to 195K for H-1B's without
increasing EB visas? Hmmmm....

In the end, I sincerely hope that I am somehow wrong. And that there is some + news for all of us.


Thanks,
-msh626

A request: When replying, do **NOT** include the whole message, unless of course necessary. :)
 
Pending PD by Years-->Quarters

I know its a guessing game but still a educated guess is better then nothing.

any someone think about gathering number of pending GC applications by Years and even better by Quaters.

I know the total figure is 300,000 of which about 33% ie 100,000 are Indian

and my guess is that this includes mainly from 2002 to 2005 (I know there are folks from 2001 but lets just assume they are very few)

so if evenly distributed there are about 25,000 cases per year?

2005 - 25000
2004 - 25000
2003 - 25000
2002 - 25000

by this rate cases that have PD 2002 should be certified by 2006 (assuming there is some reliefe and the visa numbers are increased to 20/25 K per year)

I'd be very intrested to see other peoples numbers, and also if possible break the years down by Quaters.
 
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