Regarding 2012 Selection Process

[japaneschinlove]

Because 2012 is a unique year in the DV lottery history for several reasons I wanted to try to understand a few things:

1. What happened to the 1st round selection case numbers? Were new numbers issued to overwrite them and if so how will USCIS and KCC distinguish between 1st vs. 2nd round legitimate winners? But if the 1st round case numbers are still around it might help explain why case numbers this year seem higher than previous years? But again, if those numbers are still around why is the September visa bulletin not reflecting this...?

2. Since KCC is not mailing out notifications this year and for AOS it is not even mandatory to be in any kind of exchange with KCC, will USCIS handle AOS cases differently this year? Meaning they won't have to request applicants' files prior to GC approval?

Thanks in advance for any input!

 

[kunato]

Because 2012 is a unique year in the DV lottery history for several reasons I wanted to try to understand a few things:

1. What happened to the 1st round selection case numbers? Were new numbers issued to overwrite them and if so how will USCIS and KCC distinguish between 1st vs. 2nd round legitimate winners? But if the 1st round case numbers are still around it might help explain why case numbers this year seem higher than previous years? But again, if those numbers are still around why is the September visa bulletin not reflecting this...?

2. Since KCC is not mailing out notifications this year and for AOS it is not even mandatory to be in any kind of exchange with KCC, will USCIS handle AOS cases differently this year? Meaning they won't have to request applicants' files prior to GC approval?

Thanks in advance for any input!

1. I doubt new numbers were issued. Most likely they used the same numbers. If they reissued new numbers, they would have to notify all those to whom new numbers pertain; this didn't happen; it would also add to much complexity from database point of view. I think they simply re-did the selection process with case numbers assigned last year during registration process; this would have been the easiest and safest thing to do. The cut-off numbers for October look quite reasonable to me (for start...let's see how things evolve). However, I see your point. In year 2002, there were ~24,000 selected and ~17,000 received green cards. However, cut-off case numbers went as high as 39,100. But in year 2005 a different situation was in place. there were 34,000 selected; 18,000 received visa and cut-off stopped at 20,500 (meaning those above case number 20,500 never became current and could not receive visa). I am sure they they internally have a system that is fairly simple and logical; we just don't know what that is

 

[japaneschinlove]

Hey kunato, i'm not sure i understand your response to 1st question.. are you saying you think that case numbers are assigned during registration, not selection? if this was so then case numbers would go as high as 15 million or however many people register which isn't the case..which leads me to believe that case numbers are assigned during the actual lottery selection. and so my question was that since they redid the whole selection process and if the original 1st round case numbers got overwritten with reissued numbers then there will be two matching case numbers floating around this year, one from 1st round and one from 2nd round. obviously KCC, DOS and USCIS can distinguish the real winner by the name and D.O.B. plus country of chargeability, but i would guess this could burden the process in cases where the 1st round winners attempt to proceed with their notifications (which i'm sure will happen in some cases)....

Aaand..if those numbers got overwritten with the 2nd round selections then how come this years case numbers seem high..?

to you 2nd point..i wonder if AOS cases will be processed quicker thanks to the paperless processing and KCC not being as involved?

 

[kunato]

Ah, my bad. I see your point now. I mixed confirmation number and case number. I still think they would reuse the same Case numbers. it's just that different names and DOBs would be associated with it. (namely those names from July 15 draw).

I don't think they assigned new case numbers since in that case starting cut off at 8,500 seems a bit low. In fact since the first draw would have had DV case numbers from 1 through 30,999, the new draw should have case numbers starting with DV2012EU00031000; which it does not. and the cut off should have started with 38,500, which it didn't.

Bottom line is: I don't know

as mentioned in previous post, in 2002 they used cut-off dates that were very high and didn't make sense considering th number of people selected.

I think they have internally a highly sophisticated and logical system to assign case numbers, maybe by geographic sub-location, probability to receive visas (based on last year's numbers); or maybe it's plain and simple and we're overanalyzing something.

 

[japaneschinlove]

I've heard though that only 22,000 of the first round selectees went onto check whether they won before the results were voided so only 22,000 people could have known their case numbers. This means that out ot those 22,000 maybe 5,000 or less were from Europe so maybe the lowest EU numbers are around 3,000 to 5,000... I'm not sure if I've seen lower numbers. but that would help explain why this year case numbers especially for Asia and Africa seem really high. And if those first round numbers weren't reissued it would help KCC recognize right away that their win was voided. I'm not sure though it could go either way....

About 2002 and 2003 and so on...i believe back then they didn't select as many winners so the cut off numbers were lower at the end of the year.. I believe it was somewhere around 2005 or so when they started selecting 90,000+ winners... i could be wrong though..?

Ah, my bad. I see your point now. I mixed confirmation number and case number. I still think they would reuse the same Case numbers. it's just that different names and DOBs would be associated with it. (namely those names from July 15 draw).

I don't think they assigned new case numbers since in that case starting cut off at 8,500 seems a bit low. In fact since the first draw would have had DV case numbers from 1 through 30,999, the new draw should have case numbers starting with DV2012EU00031000; which it does not. and the cut off should have started with 38,500, which it didn't.

Bottom line is: I don't know

as mentioned in previous post, in 2002 they used cut-off dates that were very high and didn't make sense considering th number of people selected.

I think they have internally a highly sophisticated and logical system to assign case numbers, maybe by geographic sub-location, probability to receive visas (based on last year's numbers); or maybe it's plain and simple and we're overanalyzing something.

 

[japaneschinlove]

ok looks like i was wrong above when i said they started selecting 90,000+ winners around 2005, they have actually been doing that since at least 1996.. it is truly perplexing how they decide the cut-off numbers. maybe each year it is a different quota for each of the six regions...which i wonder how they decide that quota

 

[Sympli Dusty]

There was a response by raevsky somewhere in this forum where he showed that May winning numbers were overwritten. As far as AOS I think CIS still will have to request a file from KCC, because they need to make sure that you are who you claim to be on DS-122 form. They will not see this for unless DOS sends it to them along with your original DV entry form.

 

[japaneschinlove]

There was a response by raevsky somewhere in this forum where he showed that May winning numbers were overwritten. As far as AOS I think CIS still will have to request a file from KCC, because they need to make sure that you are who you claim to be on DS-122 form. They will not see this for unless DOS sends it to them along with your original DV entry form.

thanks, yes I think they have to compare the pictures in your original lottery entry to make sure you are who you claim to be which makes sense..

I wonder how raevsky figured it out ....

 

[kunato]

ok looks like i was wrong above when i said they started selecting 90,000+ winners around 2005, they have actually been doing that since at least 1996.. it is truly perplexing how they decide the cut-off numbers. maybe each year it is a different quota for each of the six regions...which i wonder how they decide that quota

That is the right question.. I bet there is perfectly logical and reasonable explanation on how they decide the cu-off numbers. We're just not seeing it.

Re: case numbers; I think they simply overwrote voided lottery results with new data; they probably left old Case Numbers but associated these with names and DOBs from July draw. That's the simplest thing to do.

 

[bichop]

everything is possible in DV-2012 P

 

[kunato]

There was a response by raevsky somewhere in this forum where he showed that May winning numbers were overwritten. As far as AOS I think CIS still will have to request a file from KCC, because they need to make sure that you are who you claim to be on DS-122 form. They will not see this for unless DOS sends it to them along with your original DV entry form.

I would think this would be a no brainer...the processing people have to compare pics of original submission with those that the applicant sends in to KCC.