kotag kris
Registered Users (C)
they are from Bay area only? any guess why?
Recent July approvals look like
- Thread starter kotag kris
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Kotag, I think it is just a coincidence. Moreover....
we do not have enough July approvals to arrive at a conclusion The other factors that make me think this is just a coincidence are:
1) Most GC applicants at CSC will be from the Bay Area. So in a given sample of approvals it is to be expected that the major portion will comprise Bay Area cases.
2) I don\'t think INS/CSC assigns/adjudicates by location. That would be an extra loop to their process and would be complicated to implement and fraught with anomalies. My 2 shiny new pennies!
we do not have enough July approvals to arrive at a conclusion The other factors that make me think this is just a coincidence are:
1) Most GC applicants at CSC will be from the Bay Area. So in a given sample of approvals it is to be expected that the major portion will comprise Bay Area cases.
2) I don\'t think INS/CSC assigns/adjudicates by location. That would be an extra loop to their process and would be complicated to implement and fraught with anomalies. My 2 shiny new pennies!
goldengate
Registered Users (C)
RD vs. WAC
I think RD is a less reliable indicator than the WAC#. The recent approvals have been in the 260-269 range. They span across much of June and early July RDs. It is more meaningful to think of them as the 260 range. The month boundary is incidental and not as significant.
I think RD is a less reliable indicator than the WAC#. The recent approvals have been in the 260-269 range. They span across much of June and early July RDs. It is more meaningful to think of them as the 260 range. The month boundary is incidental and not as significant.
Even though your observations seem meaningful and based on facts, I have to disagree with you...
The cases waiting for assignment are held in shelves sorted by month of RD. If that is the case, I cannot imagine how they would track cases by WAC # which is really the ND. I think what we are seeing is that May, June and July cases have been assigned simultaneously. A lot of June and July cases fall into the WAC-260+ range. So, its reasonable to expect that June and July cases being approved, fall into that range. I have always stuck to the notion of processing by month of RD because of how cases are held in the "work distribution area". To have to process cases by WAC/ND efficiently, they would have to sort their cases by range of WAC #. Maybe they do that, but all information at my disposal suggests that they queue cases by month of RD.
I know I can only conclusively say that processing is by month of RD, If INS processed only 1 month at a time. But, if there are no more cases ready to assign in a given month and they have officers with time on their hands, they have to assign subsequent monts\' cases. That is why we see approvals spread across a few months of RD at any given time. My 2 cents.
The cases waiting for assignment are held in shelves sorted by month of RD. If that is the case, I cannot imagine how they would track cases by WAC # which is really the ND. I think what we are seeing is that May, June and July cases have been assigned simultaneously. A lot of June and July cases fall into the WAC-260+ range. So, its reasonable to expect that June and July cases being approved, fall into that range. I have always stuck to the notion of processing by month of RD because of how cases are held in the "work distribution area". To have to process cases by WAC/ND efficiently, they would have to sort their cases by range of WAC #. Maybe they do that, but all information at my disposal suggests that they queue cases by month of RD.
I know I can only conclusively say that processing is by month of RD, If INS processed only 1 month at a time. But, if there are no more cases ready to assign in a given month and they have officers with time on their hands, they have to assign subsequent monts\' cases. That is why we see approvals spread across a few months of RD at any given time. My 2 cents.
goldengate
Registered Users (C)
More academic ruminations on approval distributions
The existence of an AVM (also the announcement of the arrival of a web based query system) implies that they do have an electronic database of sorts and don\'t process everything entirely manually. It is easy enough to track cases on ANY key in that case.
However, you seem to have some inside info on how they operate, which I don\'t. My conclusions are entirely based on black box, input, output data patterns. And there seems to be too many contra indications to the month-by-month theory.
For instance, if they find that some officers have time on their hands, they probably simply pick up a bunch of files from the pile and assign them. They don\'t have to pick an entire month\'s bunch just for load balancing. If we had a lot of late July approvals also equally distributed, then it would lend more credence to the MbyM theory.
In conclusion, it still looks like a steadily progressing normal curve with the peak value inching forward.
The existence of an AVM (also the announcement of the arrival of a web based query system) implies that they do have an electronic database of sorts and don\'t process everything entirely manually. It is easy enough to track cases on ANY key in that case.
However, you seem to have some inside info on how they operate, which I don\'t. My conclusions are entirely based on black box, input, output data patterns. And there seems to be too many contra indications to the month-by-month theory.
For instance, if they find that some officers have time on their hands, they probably simply pick up a bunch of files from the pile and assign them. They don\'t have to pick an entire month\'s bunch just for load balancing. If we had a lot of late July approvals also equally distributed, then it would lend more credence to the MbyM theory.
In conclusion, it still looks like a steadily progressing normal curve with the peak value inching forward.
people have noted that their avm is out of whack at least by 30 percent
many people have noticed that incorrect messages are present on the avm
IIO\'s are able to see that cases are approved and avm may get updated after 3 days but at times the avm does not get updated.
I think they have numerous systems and they are not in sync.
Also if u check the recent approvals thread u will find CSC moving in a unorganized way.
So it all points to not having a methodical manner either by rd/md/nd/fp/country/location/eb category
It really looks like someone is just going to the adjudication room and picking up a few files and assigning them
many people have noticed that incorrect messages are present on the avm
IIO\'s are able to see that cases are approved and avm may get updated after 3 days but at times the avm does not get updated.
I think they have numerous systems and they are not in sync.
Also if u check the recent approvals thread u will find CSC moving in a unorganized way.
So it all points to not having a methodical manner either by rd/md/nd/fp/country/location/eb category
It really looks like someone is just going to the adjudication room and picking up a few files and assigning them
goldengate, I was with you till the last sentence. Then ...
you threw me a curve ball and an inswinging toe-crushing yorker all bundled in one. But in layman\'s terms, if you are saying that the approval dates are moving forward and CSC is accelerating, I am totally with you!!
you threw me a curve ball and an inswinging toe-crushing yorker all bundled in one. But in layman\'s terms, if you are saying that the approval dates are moving forward and CSC is accelerating, I am totally with you!!
reply
I like the last wording
quote
in conclusion, it still looks like a steadily progressing normal curve with the peak value inching forward
end quote
Yes - the peak (the max rd approvals was april a few weeks back and now is may rd)
slowly we shall see the max approvals moving from may to june to july
Good analysis
I like the last wording
quote
in conclusion, it still looks like a steadily progressing normal curve with the peak value inching forward
end quote
Yes - the peak (the max rd approvals was april a few weeks back and now is may rd)
slowly we shall see the max approvals moving from may to june to july
Good analysis
goldengate
Registered Users (C)
this is fun, isn\'t it?
Just trying to make some scientific sense out of this ungodly mess.
Dee Rod, it was not my intention to throw a curve ball (as you put it) or googly/doosri/chinaman (as I would have put it). What I meant was that at any point in time you can visualize the last window\'s approvals (say one week) and plot them on graph. If you plot a normal curve with the peak value where most of the approvals lie (currently WAC-260) and the curve stretching both sides (we are still seing WAC-230 approvals as well as WAC-268).
What I am saying is that over time, this bell curve is slowly inching forward.
Which is not really an earth shattering conclusion. It is pretty obvious and pretty useless. And hence academic. But it is nice to see it inching forward. Hopefully it will accelerate even more.
Just trying to make some scientific sense out of this ungodly mess.
Dee Rod, it was not my intention to throw a curve ball (as you put it) or googly/doosri/chinaman (as I would have put it). What I meant was that at any point in time you can visualize the last window\'s approvals (say one week) and plot them on graph. If you plot a normal curve with the peak value where most of the approvals lie (currently WAC-260) and the curve stretching both sides (we are still seing WAC-230 approvals as well as WAC-268).
What I am saying is that over time, this bell curve is slowly inching forward.
Which is not really an earth shattering conclusion. It is pretty obvious and pretty useless. And hence academic. But it is nice to see it inching forward. Hopefully it will accelerate even more.