Processing Prognostications

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paulclarke1

Registered Users (C)
I know I am likely to get flamed on this but I was playing with some numbers.

What I decided to do was use the data that I have been collecting on Rupnet to try to work out how long it is going to take NSC to get to my March 02 RD case. Here is my method. I am assuming that we will see activity (RFE or Approval) in Rupnet on 85% of cases. Based on the cases that have been worked thus far and the number that it would take to reach the 85% bogie for each RD month, I have made an estimate of the number of cases that remain in the 'hopper'. Since the end of the freeze NSC have looked at about 30 new Rupnet cases per week. Based on my March 02 RD, then there are about 358 Rupnet cases that we will see someone enter data on in front of me. At 30 cases per week, it should take on average 12 weeks for them to get to cases like mine from where they are today.

I have attached my spreadsheet showing how I got to these numbers, and my calculations for other RD months.

Disclaimers. My estimate only, makes assumption that work rate at NSC continues at current levels on i-485 cases, no signifcant influx of new case data in Rupnet. I make no inference about when any case in particular will be reviewed. Or in what sequence they will work cases The data supports no conclusions at all about approvals. I also recognise that there are significant numbers of very old cases that have yet to be approved.
 
Very interesting!! Good job! Hope NSC continues the approvals at this pace if not more rapidly.

cmr
 
Good job Paul.... I am an Aug'01 waiter and I am just too disappointed and disturbed at this moment not to see my approval yet... Just hoping for the best.....
 
Applying logic to approvals

I for one, don't think that any logic can be applied to the INS Nebraska center processing. My painful experience: when you apply logic, you are only setting yourself up for disappointment.....
 
Fascinating Analysis..good job

According to your analysis my Jan 03 RD should be just around July/August. It sounds good whether it happens really is another matter. With the the new BICS accountability factor there is further hope. Thanks.
 
Processing Times Should Shorten Going Forward

As I understand the situation, priority dates for all countries became current in July 2001. This caused a huge influx of I-485 applications in the latter half of the year. Rupnet is the best guide we have and we can see that there are 997 cases with RD's between July 2001 and Dec 2001. There are only 462 cases for the whole of 2002. It is clear that they are getting through this hump according to my analysis they have 'touched' 847 of these cases. All other things being equal i.e. they do not reduce their I-485 processing resource or change the rules, then we should see a significant reduction in processing times this year.
 
I Told You I would Get Flamed

Obviously you cannot make inferences about when any specific cases will be actioned. I think one of the issues that we all have is that we are all too close to our own situations to look at the 'big picture'. I also would be the first to admit that given the sample size and the fact that NSC seems to be working cases over a 6 month time horizon at teh moment that at best my estimates are +/- 3 months.

It is clear that the INS does not particularly care about the processing times associated with any specific case, there is no FIFO processing rule. It would seem that cases get worked by an officer in batches. In my imagination I see a case officer getting assigned a group of cases, then working the new ones in conjunction with RFE responses from other cases. The varied complexity of the cases, RFE's and different between officer is what creates the impression of randomness. I have attached links to the documents that have lead me to my conclusions about how the SC's work. I truely believe that they are trying to do there best overall, but we are all just a case file. At the end of FY2001 the INS has 970,000 adjustment of status cases pending.


http://shihab.net/empimm/I485sop.pdf
(Refer to page 131)

http://www.ins.usdoj.gov/graphics/aboutins/statistics/Yearbook2001.pdf
(refer page 17)

http://www.usvisanews.com/memo1607.html

http://www.usvisanews.com/memo1610.html

http://www.usvisanews.com/memo1612.html

http://www.usvisanews.com/memo1616.html
 
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